Boogieman Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I actually want this thing to stay north of me right now, which means I'll probably get 10" of cement. My exact sentiments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 12Z NAM is a touch stronger and warmer compared to 6Z FYIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 12z NAM not backing down. A tick slower than 06z but basically the same path to southern tip of LM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 This is the earliest watch I can remember being issued and that's why no other offices wanted to join in. The typical rule of thumb for Winter Storm Watches is that they're not issued more than 4 periods (12 hrs is a period) out unless with very high confidence 5th period watches can be issued. So within 48 hours usually and rarely 60 hours. Bigger problem in this situation for going beyond even the 5th period threshold is that this is not a very high confidence situation considering the significant variance in the guidance. Thanks for the inside info. I had heard about the so called "long-fused" WSWs before but it seems GRR is taking that to whole new level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Interesting how the NAM kind of wobbles the sfc low easterly once it gets into southern lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I can't believe I'm hoping for a rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Looks to me like we'll have better upper air sampling for tonight's 00z and tomorrow's 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Something to watch for on the warmer side is at least a small threat of severe weather. I pulled this NAM forecast sounding for ORD at 12z Thursday and you can see some CAPE with very strong shear, especially speed shear. Also have pretty low freezing levels. Obviously the location could shift but just using ORD as the example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 All I say is, that lake enhanced cold front will try very hard to clear the entire lake and not stall out part way. NAM holds at 33°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Elevated hailers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Agreed, but how much will actually accumulate? I'm thinking Muskegon and Cadillac will be the big winners. GRR pulled the trigger on watches. I think they are a bit too early and definitely riding the euro solution. Obviously I would love for Muskegon to be the big winner. GRR gives several reasons why they are going with the Euro. I'm shocked they issued the watch, as they usually wait and wait, and hey look, there are six inches of snow...we should issue a watch! They must be pretty confident about this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Obviously I would love for Muskegon to be the big winner. GRR gives several reasons why they are going with the Euro. I'm shocked they issued the watch, as they usually wait and wait, and hey look, there are six inches of snow...we should issue a watch! They must be pretty confident about this one! Maybe because it's leading up the busy travel holiday weekend they wanted to get the word out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Here's the GRR discussion. PCPN WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT...AND REALLY BECOMEWIDESPREAD ON WED. THE SFC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TUE WILL CONTINUE TOSLOWLY CRAWL SOUTH THROUGH WED. AT THE SAME TIME...WE WILL SEESTRONG SRLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOWDIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. PCPN WILL START OUT AS RAIN TUENIGHT...AND WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT I-96 BY 12ZWED. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH...HOWEVERIMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED INTO WED MORNING.WE ARE FAVORING THE COLDER AND SNOWIER EURO SOLUTION FOR THECHANGEOVER AND POSITION OF P-TYPES FROM WED AND INTO THE LONG TERM.WE BELIEVE THAT THE EURO IS HANDLING THE UPPER LOW MUCH BETTER AS ITEMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER LOWACCELERATE EAST TOO MUCH RESULTING FROM INTERACTIONS WITH INDIVIDUALSHORT WAVES.WE WILL SEE THE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST OF THE CWFA BY 00ZTHU AS THE COLDER AIR WILL MAKE IT ALMOST TO THE SRN BORDER BY THEN.I-94 COUNTIES MAY HOLD ON TO RAIN THROUGH THEN...BUT TEMPS WILL BEAPPROACHING FREEZING BY THEN. WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN STARTTHERE TOWARD 00Z THU IF TEMPS FALL QUICK ENOUGH DOWN SOUTH WITH THEMELTING LAYER ALOFT THERE. SNOW LOOKS TO START ACCUMULATING WEDAFTERNOON AND COULD CREATE IMPACTS FOR THE WED EVENING COMMUTE FORTHE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA. ALL OF THIS WOULD BE A MAJOR CHANGECOMPARED TO THE VERY SPRING-LIKE WARMTH WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 2-3 WEEKS..LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY AWINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOW MUCH IMPACT IS NOTCERTAIN BUT THERE IS A RISK FOR HIGH IMPACTS.GFS CONTINUES WARMER THAN THE HIGH RES EURO AND WOULD WARRANT LESSIN THE WAY OF IMPACTS FOCUSING A WINTRY MIX MAINLY NORTH OF A GRANDRAPIDS TO LANSING REGION. THE HIGH RES EURO 00Z RUN SETS UP A RATHERSIGNIFICANT EVENT WITH A SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW EAST TO WESTTHROUGH MOST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH A MIX DOWN TOWARDS I94. USERSWOULD NEED SEVERAL DAYS TO PLAN TO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS IF THEHIGH RES EURO VERIFIES. THE COMBINATION OF GULF MOISTURE...DEEPSYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A MID LEVEL WAVE...ANDSTRONGER GEN SUPPORTS A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA WITHTHIS EVENT. WE ARE FAVORING THE HIGH RES EURO AS IT HAS SHOWN RATHERGOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS. PLUS THE GFS HAS SOME ISSUESWITH THE RUNS ON SUNDAY THAT MAY CARRY OVER INTO THE CURRENT RUNS.THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS MUCH LESS IN THE WAYOF PRECIPITATION. YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD ARRIVE FORTHE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I sure wish the NAM and GFS would come south to match the Euro. Time to wait a couple hours to see if the Euro caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I sure wish the NAM and GFS would come south to match the Euro. Time to wait a couple hours to see if the Euro caves. EURO has UKIE/GEM support so it would be a pretty big coup for the NCEP models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Here's the GFS. About 125 miles difference between the heaviest snowfall corridors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 EURO has UKIE/GEM support so it would be a pretty big coup for the NCEP models. The Euro had GEM support until yesterday morning. Now it's sort of gone between the two, and seems to be moving more towards GFS. Hopefully the upcoming run supports the Euro again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Here's the GFS. About 125 miles difference between the heaviest snowfall corridors. "Only" 125 miles...in Michigan it is even a bigger difference. Hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Here's the GFS. About 125 miles difference between the heaviest snowfall corridors. Huge Winter Storm Watch bust should this verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The Euro had GEM support until yesterday morning. Now it's sort of gone between the two, and seems to be moving more towards GFS. Hopefully the upcoming run supports the Euro again. So far at 48 hours. GEM has the low at 992 mb near Salina, KS. Yeah I measured in WI. Roughly the distance from the Menominee Falls bulls eye to Steven's Point. ... Low weakens a little at 60 hours. 995mb near MCI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 "Only" 125 miles...in Michigan it is even a bigger difference. Hah And the difference in total snowfall is "only" two feet for central lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 "Only" 125 miles...in Michigan it is even a bigger difference. Hah And the difference in total snowfall is "only" two feet for central lower MI. 175 miles or so difference in MI. 72 hours the low is just south of Bloomington it looks like, but now at 1000 mb. Freezing line is around Racine to Muskegon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Huge Winter Storm Watch bust should this verify. Yeah that would make GRR look pretty bad lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The Euro had GEM support until yesterday morning. Now it's sort of gone between the two, and seems to be moving more towards GFS. Hopefully the upcoming run supports the Euro again. I disagree. The older GEM runs had a more wrapped up storm like the GFS currently has. It's trended flatter the last 2-3 runs, even if it's not quite as far south as the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Huge Winter Storm Watch bust should this verify. There is a siggy icing threat south of the snow swath though. That may help them save face a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 12z UKMET shifted north it looks like, but the time intervals make it tough to tell how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It seems like the models are kicking the low out too fast and starts to occlude and weaken by the time it gets northeast of KC. GGEM takes the low towards Buffalo after it passes over MCI and then shoots it east along the MO/IA stateline while it is weakening. Ice south of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Pretty decent jump north on the GEM. Trend? Let's see what everyone's favorite model says shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Pretty decent jump north on the GEM. Trend? Let's see what everyone's favorite model says shortly. About 25 miles difference in the southern 2' edge. Low is still south of Chicago. It's trending weaker though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It's trending weaker though... Seasonal trends for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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