Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Out to 54 hours on the EURO, everything looks similar so far in terms of frontal passage timing. Actually a touch faster here. Around 12z Tues for Milwaukee, couple hours later here. Low over OK panhandle at 60 hours. 72 hours just south of Topeka. Front is into Lincoln at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 This run does seem a little faster than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 96 hours and the low is in EC Ohio. Model war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Going to be another big run. Low travels along I-70 for the most part. The f-gen band is really strong across southern most WI and southern MI. Freezing line along I-88 at 78 hours and then straight towards Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 12z run was closed off at 500 mb at 108 hours. The 00z run isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Central Iowa to Kenosha, Racine and Milwaukee are in the heaviest corridor so far. Out to 90 hours. Through Blackrock/Muskegon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Man Milwaukee just gets drilled again on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Central Iowa to Kenosha, Racine and Milwaukee are in the heaviest corridor so far. Out to 90 hours. Through Blackrock/Muskegon. Still awake....and sounds good! Lol Hopefully the GFS' slight SE movement at 00Z is it beginning to give into the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Wow Blackrock you must be pumped for this! Epic run for southern Ontario this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I am excited but sooooooo cautious after this craphole winter. I've had a couple people mention the possibility of snow this week and I am so hesitant/skeptical. But 2 feet plus of heavy, wet snow on the EURO certainly has my interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 0Z ECMWF kind of lost the loads of ice down here, has around 0.2-0.3 which with the winds would be annoying. Oh well, I might be salty that we aren't going to get jack out of this but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 EURO gets Friday night low temps into the single digits over the heaviest snow covered areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Central Iowa to Kenosha, Racine and Milwaukee are in the heaviest corridor so far. Out to 90 hours. Through Blackrock/Muskegon. Looks more realistic compared to the 12z version. Already cut significant snow amounts south of the main swath where we'll be locked in under a warm layer that will prevent much, if any snowfall. Cedar Rapids will likely be pretty much shut out per usual, with a foot or more of snow 30-60 miles north of there. 1-2" of slop call there may actually be a bit too aggressive. Other than that my first calls from earlier looking spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 IWX says reason for poop model forecasts right now is horrible sampling so far, GRR issues WSW for some of their counties: MODELS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY WITH LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS TUESDAYAS PACIFIC ENERGY CURRENTLY NEARING THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND ANDACROSS THE ROCKIES. WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSSCANADA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS MICHIGANBY TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ANYWHEREFROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AS IT BECOMES PARALLELTO MID LEVEL FLOW. LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL TOFORECAST GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE AND TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT. PARENTENERGY REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST AND STILL POORLY SAMPLED BY UANETWORK. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULT TIME WITH WHERE FRONT WILL BELOCATED AND THE TRACK OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT LIFTS OUT OF THEPLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ON THESOUTH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS HAS REMAINED TO THE NORTH AND00Z RUNS WERE NO DIFFERENT. 00Z NAM AND CANADIAN ARE A NICECOMPROMISE IN THE MIDDLE WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ANDGENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR NOW FOR CONSISTENCY AND GIVEN THEUNCERTAINTY. THIS REMAINS IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST AS WELL AS WPCGUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS ANY FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW JUST TO OUR NORTHTHROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ACROSS OUR MICHIGANCOUNTIES RANGES FROM LOWER 50S WITH WARMER SOLUTIONS TO UPPER 20SWITH THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. EXPECT THE TRUTH TO BE SOMEWHEREBETWEEN THIS LARGE SPREAD.FULLY EXPECT CHANGES TO UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE PACIFIC ENERGY COMESONSHORE AND GETS SAMPLED. ANY SHIFT TOWARD FURTHER SOUTH ECMWF WILLBRING BOTH SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THE PICTURE FORNORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPS FOR CENTRAL ANDNORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE MONITOREDCLOSELY BUT FOR NOW FELT IT PRUDENT TO STAY WITH THE BLENDED INITSAND MIDDLE SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEPS TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAINTHROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Wow Blackrock you must be pumped for this! Epic run for southern Ontario this time. euro_032416storm_NEMonday0z.png lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 GFS insistent on its more northerly solution. Was glad to see the GEM come south some, giving the EURO/UKIE some added credence. I noticed the 0z GEFS even nudged south. If this ends up playing out like April 2003 the GFS will grudgingly trend colder. For Toronto, even the "warmer" 6z GFS is a decent ice storm Wednesday night before things warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Saying hi from the MidAtl thread! Rooting for you guys on this one as a someone who recently moved from the lakes! Good luck! Just remember, King Euro ain't always King Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Saying hi from the MidAtl thread! Rooting for you guys on this one as a someone who recently moved from the lakes! Good luck! Just remember, King Euro ain't always King Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Esp. When climatology is against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 06z NAM went north and the GFS holds serve. Classic showdown. MPX thinks one of the models will blink on the 12z runs now that the trough is onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 0z euro run is absolutely crazy around here. Haven't seen output like that in a long time and yet the GFS is so different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I actually want this thing to stay north of me right now, which means I'll probably get 10" of cement.Hopefully MKE-Alpena-YYZ gets a big dog since they've kind of been in a snow hole as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 GRR going with euro. I'm thinking this one ends up being a strip of 12-18 inches with a few jackpots over 18 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 GRR going with euro. I'm thinking this one ends up being a strip of 12-18 inches with a few jackpots over 18 inches. Agreed, but how much will actually accumulate? I'm thinking Muskegon and Cadillac will be the big winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 GRR pulled the trigger on watches. I think they are a bit too early and definitely riding the euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 GRR pulled the trigger on watches. I think they are a bit too early and definitely riding the euro solution. It's a bit odd seeing the national headline map with that little pocket of blue over SW MI. Doesn't seem like they coordinated with surrounding offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Agreed, but how much will actually accumulate? I'm thinking Muskegon and Cadillac will be the big winners. Yup. The ground is still pretty cold. My soil was actually frozen on the top layer yesterday morning from the 20F low temp. I'd say most will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Tough to say which camp will win out. Full RAOB sampling of the main s/w usually results in the models trending stronger/north...but the wild card is the confluence/arctic high pressure to the north, which is also in a somewhat sparse RAOB area of Canada. If that ridging's stronger it may favour the southern camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 GRR- Riding the Euro I guess. Looking at the snow maps of the Euro, it has the classic 15-16 winter temperature profiles shown for this region. Like so many southern Jet systems this winter(All of them) we are on the fringe of the cold air. Has the +FZRN profiles eased on the southern flanks of the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 GRR- Riding the Euro I guess. Looking at the snow maps of the Euro, it has the classic 15-16 winter temperature profiles shown for this region. Like so many southern Jet systems this winter(All of them) we are on the fringe of the cold air. The night shift at GRR is a little too aggressive sometimes, and this is one of those times IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It's a bit odd seeing the national headline map with that little pocket of blue over SW MI. Doesn't seem like they coordinated with surrounding offices.This is the earliest watch I can remember being issued and that's why no other offices wanted to join in. The typical rule of thumb for Winter Storm Watches is that they're not issued more than 4 periods (12 hrs is a period) out unless with very high confidence 5th period watches can be issued. So within 48 hours usually and rarely 60 hours. Bigger problem in this situation for going beyond even the 5th period threshold is that this is not a very high confidence situation considering the significant variance in the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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