Minnesota Meso Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The GFS is a bit south, the low doesn't enter SE WI on this run. Passes just south of here. The GFS just won't give up on its idea, 12+ in the SE MSP metro, if this holds true it will be a major win for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The GFS just won't give up on its idea, 12+ in the SE MSP metro, if this holds true it will be a major win for the GFS Epic model showdown coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I knew it would come to this at some point this season. Spent most of the winter to the NW, watching the models that had SE Michigan getting the snow be correct. Now, I'm looking to the NW, hoping the SE runs are the right ones. Can the models ever agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Epic model showdown coming! It will be if the ECMWF holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 00z GGEM looks a little south...surface low passes south of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 It will be if the ECMWF holds. Wasn't going to say anything and jinx it. GGEM tracks the low from KC to Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I think the euro will be similar to the past few runs because it always seems to hold out and either nails it or busts 24hrs before the storm. It just hasn't shifted much in medium range this season, or that I can recall at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The GFS just won't give up on its idea, 12+ in the SE MSP metro, if this holds true it will be a major win for the GFS And the 2nd major loss for the new euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 GGEM continues to have wild precip amounts...have an area of 2" qpf in just 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 CMC (GGEM?) seems to be much farther north from its 12Z Sunday run and looks more like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 CMC (GGEM?) seems to be much farther north from its 12Z Sunday run and looks more like GFS. It's warmer initially but the surface low track actually ends up south eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 CMC (GGEM?) seems to be much farther north from its 12Z Sunday run and looks more like GFS. Actually no. It hangs the low back more and cuts towards Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 00z GGEM looks a little south...surface low passes south of Chicago. Wasn't going to say anything and jinx it. GGEM tracks the low from KC to Toledo. CMC (GGEM?) seems to be much farther north from its 12Z Sunday run and looks more like GFS. So which is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 So which is it Too far north to make a difference here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Ha ha^ Difference in NE IL temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Too far north to make a difference here Yeah it seems close here, really only the UKMET and Euro have as deep of an intrusion of Arctic air into MI. GEM doesn't even with similar synoptic setup as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 So which is it Haha! The answer is....exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I realize there are synoptic drivers in play but I have a hard time believing that lake enhanced front is going to be denied passage around here, especially at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I realize there are synoptic drivers in play but I have a hard time believing that lake enhanced front is going to be denied passage around here, especially at this time of year. Likewise off of Lake Huron with strong NE winds at the surface. The lakes should win the low level fight on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 One of the GRR forecasters said on Saturday that they believed the EURO would be closer to being correct because of how strong the cold high pressure is in Canada. Haven't heard much more about it since though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 I realize there are synoptic drivers in play but I have a hard time believing that lake enhanced front is going to be denied passage around here, especially at this time of year. Thinking back to 2/29, a couple models were lagging that front. In the end the front cleared I-80 rather quickly. GFS suggests it doesn't pass ORD. 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 OT...but the GFS shows us getting quite the snowfall into next week. At least this run does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Snow has made headway into NW IL on this run. Saukville's palms are buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 OT...but the GFS shows us getting quite the snowfall into next week. At least this run does. Yeah I see that. EURO at 12:50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Unless by some miracle the Euro/UKIE hold, I think us South end folks will punt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Yeah I see that. EURO at 12:50. I'm an hour ahead of you....so I have to wait. But sometimes when I go to the beach my phone picks up Central time across the lake and goes with your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Thinking back to 2/29, a couple models were lagging that front. In the end the front cleared I-80 rather quickly. GFS suggests it doesn't pass ORD. 78 hours. If I remember correctly, wasn't the front about two hours faster than modeled, and end up near Pontiac? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 If I remember correctly, wasn't the front about two hours faster than modeled, and end up near Pontiac? Yeah that sounds about right. Even 3 hours ahead of time. I remember it coming through right after 2pm. Was supposed to come through about 5pm here on most models. EURO was the fastest I know that. I'm an hour ahead of you....so I have to wait. But sometimes when I go to the beach my phone picks up Central time across the lake and goes with your time. O yeah, that's right. I guess you're not staying up that late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Good discussion read from GRB. .UPDATE...ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016FORECAST FOCUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ON THE CYCLONE CROSSINGTHE REGION MID-WEEK...AND IT/S POTENTIAL TO BRING A SIGNIFICANTSNOWFALL TO THE REGION. THOUGH EXHIBITING SOME TIMINGDIFFERENCES...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND CANADIANMODELS GENERATED A SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OFTHE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THESE MODELS...SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLEACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THEPAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...AND HAD ASLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. IT/S TRACK COULDSTILL RESULT IN WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS OVER ABOUT THE SE 1/4 TO 1/3OF THE FCST AREA...BUT WITH LOWER TOTALS AND A MUCH SHARPERDECREASE IN PRECIPITATION NW OF THE FOX VALLEY.A FEW THOUGHTS ON THIS SYSTEM FROM ROUGHLY 3 DAYS OUT. BOTH THEGFS AND THE ECMWF HAD GOOD SUPPORT FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLEMEANS. LOOKED TO SEE IF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWED EVEN A SMALLCLUSTERING OF MEMBERS WITH A MORE SLY TRACK SIMILAR TO THEECMWF...AND FOUND NO EVIDENCE OF THAT. SO THERE DOESN/T SEEM TOBE MUCH HELP FROM THE ENSEMBLE DATA. ONE THING THAT CAUGHT MY EYEWAS THAT THE 12Z RUN OF THE UKMET TRACKED THE CYCLONE MUCHFARTHER SE...BASICALLY EWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT WOULDINDICATE SOME SUPPORT FOR A TRACK MORE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THEECWMF...THOUGH UNLIKE THE ECMWF...THE UKMET WAS VERY FAST MOVG THESYSTEM EAST. IT/S ALSO HARD TO GO AGAINST THE ECMWF AFTER ITCLEARLY OUT PERFORMED THE REST OF THE MODELS WITH LAST WEEKSSYSTEM.THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUSDURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE IS REASONTO BE AT LEAST A LITTLE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALLSGENERATED BY THE GFS. CURRENT HWO HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ASTORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS TO AT LEAST PORTIONSOF THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THATSEEMS LIKE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION UNTIL BETTERCONFIDENCE IS GAINED IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND ANDTHE SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE BAND.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The ejection location of the surface low from Colorado on the 00z ECMWF looks very similar to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.