nwburbschaser Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Lake enhancement.... And then another snowstorm hits the same areas and slightly south of the first one exactly 7 days from now! Solid 30" of snow from southwest of Des Moines to the Thumb of MI, peaking at close to 40" over Racine and Milwaukee. Them's fightin' words right there. I can kind of get into the idea of a late season big dog, but I have a feeling it will just end up mostly cold rain around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I think this sad winter broke Geos. Dude, has gone delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I think this sad winter broke Geos. Dude, has gone delusional. Not delusional. I don't think... lol A third of that would be really impressive for the last 7 days of March, let alone most of it. Both systems for anyone wondering. And it had the second system last night in the same area as the GFS was hitting on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Euro does have surface temps well below freezing during much of the event, generally in the 28-31 range north of I-80 in IL. You could argue that's feasible given strong CAA below 850mb. Above that though a lingering warm layer maintained by weak WAA will keep precip liquid. If the Euro isn't overdoing surface/near surface CAA, then I could see a decent zone of icing or sleet working out over a fairly decent corridor. Something to watch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Maybe some sleet?Maybe, still there is a large portion that falls with warm 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GEFS look mostly clustered around the op. A few farther south but not as far south as the op Euro. Euro seems like it has been doing pretty well lately so can it hold this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Even if the second system doesn't work out and if this first system is half of those amounts, it will be probably be a top 5 late season storm for Milwaukee. If the EURO doesn't move tonight, going to have to think about planning for heavy snow this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Not delusional. I don't think... lol A third of that would be really impressive for the last 7 days of March, let alone most of it. Both systems for anyone wondering. And it had the second system last night in the same area as the GFS was hitting on the 12z run. Yeaaaaahh 24-27" for Adams County and Morgan County Colorado. I never get a chance to look at Euro snow totals as a map. So I'm excited about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GEFS look mostly clustered around the op. A few farther south but not as far south as the op Euro. Euro seems like it has been doing pretty well lately so can it hold this track. It's so hard to go against the Euro. It can be off sometimes though, like we've seen a few times this season with a few storms. However it seems to sniff out trends before other models catch on. Just with this past event, it was the slowest by a long shot, and sure enough the storm ended up being even slower than what the Euro had been forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Yeaaaaahh 24-27" for Adams County and Morgan County Colorado. I never get a chance to look at Euro snow totals as a map. So I'm excited about this. Looks like a solid 20" in Fort Collins. Near 3' over eastern Arapahoe, and Elbert County, CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GEFS look mostly clustered around the op. A few farther south but not as far south as the op Euro. Euro seems like it has been doing pretty well lately so can it hold this track.FWIW, different region and all, but the upgraded ECMWF and EPS did not perform well with the current east coast storm from a similar lead time out to this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 EURO handled that cut off low situation well and shunted the majority of the moisture southeast first while the GFS and GEM were still pounding this area with 2.5" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The Euro has the Canadian high much stronger than the GFS, that is what is driving the warm front location with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 That April 2003 storm is on the CIPS analogs list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 EURO has Chicago in the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday and then by midnight in the mid to upper 30s. Like the leap day situation. Front really drives south into SPI to LAF at 78 hours and holds there until 93 hours. GFS is along the state line here. 200 miles difference. I would side with the front going down to Kankakee County at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 That April 2003 storm is on the CIPS analogs list.Not surprising, probably near the top too I bet, I haven't looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 All the NWS offices say one or all of the models will likely have significant changes over the next few runs. So let's see what happens I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Not surprising, probably near the top too I bet, I haven't looked. 5th place Do you remember how efficient the icing was during the daylight hours back then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 5th place Do you remember how efficient the icing was during the daylight hours back then? Not really, all I know is it was around 1" totals. With the northern suburbs over 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z ECMWF ensemble mean has a surface low track fairly close to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 All the NWS offices say one or all of the models will likely have significant changes over the next few runs. So let's see what happens I guess.Did you read all of the afternoon discos?? Not all of them said that. Interesting comment from MPX about the 12z GFS run. The upper air data and aircraft data were not included due to the initialization issues. That run remained very similar to previous runs. They also commented on how several systems this winter have trended south only to come back north. They're favoring the GFS and S MN for a good hit. 18z GFS bumped north again. So did the 18z NAM. Two camps (north vs south) gonna duke it out for another day or two it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 18z GFS still with a more northern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 18Z RGEM was south in Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Did you read all of the afternoon discos?? Not all of them said that. Interesting comment from MPX about the 12z GFS run. The upper air data and aircraft data were not included due to the initialization issues. That run remained very similar to previous runs. They also commented on how several systems this winter have trended south only to come back north. They're favoring the GFS and S MN for a good hit. 18z GFS bumped north again. So did the 18z NAM. Two camps (north vs south) gonna duke it out for another day or two it appears. Except it's been the other way around more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Rainer for mkx south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Rainer for mkx south not saying your wrong but arent you a big Euro guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Rainer for mkx southDryslot for geos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 not saying your wrong but arent you a big Euro guy? Gotta toss any solution that threatens to bring snow or mix into northern IL, duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 not saying your wrong but arent you a big Euro guy? He's just being realistic, the Euro and its Ensembles are on their own, though I'd love to have it verify and give credence to the new version of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 He's just being realistic, the Euro and its Ensembles are on their own, though I'd love to have it verify and give credence to the new version of the Euro. The GGEM/NAM/UKMET are closer to the Euro than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.