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March 23-24 System


RyanDe680

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Ended up with about a bit over a half inch (~15mm) of ice accretion here. Seen some huge power flashes and a couple trees split or big branches down. Witnessed one big branch fall while taking an ice walk.

 

Areas to my north and north west were reporting up to an inch of ice. Full blown ice storm. Going to be bad there in the morning, been hearing of some smaller towns completely without power and with a majority of trees damaged.

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Can't believe what a model fail this was, from the QPF to the temps.

 

Loss power for about 90 minutes earlier yesterday evening. Trees are beautifully caked in ice but not much limb damage. Probably under 1/2" of accrual.

A fair bit of ice in my neighbourhood as well. In the end, it would seem that we got something in between what the GFS and European were predicting. The euro was too extreme while the GFS was wrong about this being mainly a plain rain event.

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A fair bit of ice in my neighbourhood as well. In the end, it would seem that we got something in between what the GFS and European were predicting. The euro was too extreme while the GFS was wrong about this being mainly a plain rain event.

~0.4" of accretion around here. Sfc temps were stubborn and the HRRR was pretty spot on(esp relative to other models).

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~0.4" of accretion around here. Sfc temps were stubborn and the HRRR was pretty spot on(esp relative to other models).

 

Have to give the models credit for nailing the heavy icing out in Wellington, Dufferin counties and the Barrie/Aliston area. The NAM was right in showing an inch+ of precipitation falling as freezing rain in those areas. Accretion in those areas were probably in line with what the December 2013 produced for Toronto. Still over 100,000 customers without power at this time.

 

The HRRR runs the morning of the 24th were correct as well in predicting the cold air that remained entrenched over those areas producing significant freezing rain yesterday evening/night.

 

Pretty amazing setup, and the bow echo that rolled through around 8pm was incredible. I can't ever remember seeing precipitation that heavy during a freezing rain event. It was torrential.

 

All in all, a great event to track. It was funny that some were calling bust yesterday morning and things had barely got going yet!

 

This was the surface analysis just after precipitation finished last night.  Pretty much anywhere to the east got slammed (minus Toronto proper). The warm sector essentially continued to shrink as the cold front approached and the warm front stalled out. For almost the entire day that freeze line never moved even as the heaviest precipitation rolled through.

 

CeXddYrVAAABK-X.jpg

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Downtown Toronto was also affected by last night's freezing rain event, though to a lesser extent compared to areas north/northwest of Toronto. Temps yesterday evening hovered around -0.4 to -0.6C downtown and there was a bunch of sparks on the TTC streetcar wires from the ice buildup. The 512 St. Clair streetcar line shut down late yesterday evening from the ice. In general, it's a good thing precip amounts were light (3-4 mm) or else this would have been a much worse event for the city core.

As for why temps struggled to get above freezing last night, I'm guessing models (except for the HRRR) underestimated the low level cold air feed from the NE from the Quebec high. Similar thing happened in Dec. 2013 as it stayed below freezing much longer than originally forecast (on the 22nd).

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  

106 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 /1206 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016/  

   

..DAMAGE INFORMATION FROM THE MARCH 24TH STORMS  

 

BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF RADAR...PHOTOGRAPHS/VIDEO AND  

PERSONAL ACCOUNTS...A WEAK TORNADO IS BELIEVED TO HAVE BRIEFLY  

TOUCHED DOWN JUST WEST OF EDWARDSBURG MICHIGAN. WE CONTINUE TO  

WORK WITH CASS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT TO CONFIRM THE  

DETAILS...AND AN UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE SENT  

ONCE WE HAVE FINALIZED THE PATH AND INTENSITY.  

 

SURVEY CREWS ARE BEING DISPATCHED TO LAPORTE COUNTY TO INVESTIGATE  

AN AREA OF WIND DAMAGE EAST OF HANNA. WE ANTICIPATE UPDATED  

INFORMATION ABOUT THE DAMAGE SOMETIME THIS EVENING...AND WILL  

ISSUE A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WITH OUR FINDINGS.  

 

EVIDENCE SHOWS THAT THE DAMAGE REPORTED IN ST. JOSEPH COUNTY  

INDIANA FROM NORTH LIBERTY INTO SOUTH BEND WAS THE RESULT OF  

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...ESTIMATED BETWEEN 60-70 MPH.  


NG/MSL  

 

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Yup, these are my pics from Fergus last night.  Equivalent to what I saw in Campbellville during 2013 ice storm.  Even more ice in fact but slightly less wind (still gusting to 40km/h) so they evened out.  Constant power flashes and trees crashing down .  Caught this hydro line explosion as well: 

Not my pics but this is from about 30 minutes north of me. Over 1.3" (35mm) ice accretion in Fergus, ON. Incredible to say the least.

 

CeXIQqxWAAAEy8D.jpgCeXISTeXIAAaH3g.jpgCeXITOiWEAEEUZA.jpg

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IWX confirms EF-0 tornado

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

447 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 /347 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016/

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 3/24/16 TORNADO EVENT...

.EDWARDSBURG MICHIGAN TORNADO...

RATING: EF-0

ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 75 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.4 MILES

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS

FATALITIES: 0

INJURIES: 0

START DATE: MARCH 24 2016

START TIME: 314 PM EDT

START LOCATION: 1.1 MI W OF EDWARDSBURG, MI

START LAT/LON: 41.7925 / -86.1027

END DATE: MARCH 24 2016

END TIME: 318 PM EDT

END LOCATION: 0.3 MI N OF EDWARDSBURG, MI

END LAT/LON: 41.8000 / -86.0787

SURVEY SUMMARY:

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 1.1 MI W OF EDWARDSBURG, MI AT THE

NORTH END OF SUNDANCE ROAD JUST SOUTH OF US-12. A VIDEO WAS

TAKEN THAT SHOWS DEBRIS BEING LOFTED WITH NOTABLE ROTATION.

THE TORNADO TRACKED EAST NORTHEAST AND HEAVILY DAMAGED A BARN

AND REMOVED SHINGLES AND PART OF THE ROOF OF A CHURCH JUST SOUTH

OF US-12. AS THE TORNADO TRACKED INTO EDWARDSBURG, TREES WERE

UPROOTED. THE TORNADO LIFTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF M-62 AND

US-12, WHERE SEVERAL MORE TREES WERE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED.

WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK CASS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR

THEIR ASSISTANCE WITH THIS SURVEY.

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Yup, these are my pics from Fergus last night.  Equivalent to what I saw in Campbellville during 2013 ice storm.  Even more ice in fact but slightly less wind (still gusting to 40km/h) so they evened out.  Constant power flashes and trees crashing down .  Caught this hydro line explosion as well: 

 

That is some crazy stuff! What was the max total for Ice acc. around your area?

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IWX confirms EF-0 tornado

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

447 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 /347 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016/

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 3/24/16 TORNADO EVENT...

.EDWARDSBURG MICHIGAN TORNADO...

RATING: EF-0

ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 75 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.4 MILES

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS

FATALITIES: 0

INJURIES: 0

START DATE: MARCH 24 2016

START TIME: 314 PM EDT

START LOCATION: 1.1 MI W OF EDWARDSBURG, MI

START LAT/LON: 41.7925 / -86.1027

END DATE: MARCH 24 2016

END TIME: 318 PM EDT

END LOCATION: 0.3 MI N OF EDWARDSBURG, MI

END LAT/LON: 41.8000 / -86.0787

SURVEY SUMMARY:

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 1.1 MI W OF EDWARDSBURG, MI AT THE

NORTH END OF SUNDANCE ROAD JUST SOUTH OF US-12. A VIDEO WAS

TAKEN THAT SHOWS DEBRIS BEING LOFTED WITH NOTABLE ROTATION.

THE TORNADO TRACKED EAST NORTHEAST AND HEAVILY DAMAGED A BARN

AND REMOVED SHINGLES AND PART OF THE ROOF OF A CHURCH JUST SOUTH

OF US-12. AS THE TORNADO TRACKED INTO EDWARDSBURG, TREES WERE

UPROOTED. THE TORNADO LIFTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF M-62 AND

US-12, WHERE SEVERAL MORE TREES WERE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED.

WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK CASS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR

THEIR ASSISTANCE WITH THIS SURVEY.

That tor occurred in a marginal environment to say the least. Even the more bullish NAM had been showing very little instability that far north and from what I can tell, temps were in the mid 50s with dews in the low 50s in that area around the time the storms occurred.
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I measured multiple occurrences of 3.5-4cm accretion around Fergus! Combined with winds gusting to 40km/h, it led to a disastrous outcome.

Yeah this was one for the books I think. Eclipsed the Dec 2013 ice storm in terms of qpf and accretion.

1 in 30 year return interval I'd suspect at the least.

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IWX found two more EF0s

 


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  830 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016 /730 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2016/     ..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 3/24/16 TORNADO EVENT       TORNADO 2: HANNA INDIANA TORNADO    RATING:                 EF-0  ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    85 MPH  PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.9 MILES  PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   100 YARDS  FATALITIES:             0  INJURIES:               0    START DATE:             MARCH 24 2016  START TIME:             130 PM CDT  START LOCATION:         3.3 MI NE OF HANNA, IN        START LAT/LON:          41.4392 / -86.7301    END DATE:               MARCH 24 2016  END TIME:               133 PM CDT  END LOCATION:           4.0 MI NE OF HANNA, IN        END LAT/LON:            41.4442 / -86.7133     SURVEY SUMMARY: A NWS SURVEY OF DAMAGE FOUND INDICATIONS OF A  TORNADO TOUCHING DOWN IN AN OPEN FIELD EAST OF THE INTERSECTION  STATE ROUTE 39 AND WEST COUNTY ROAD 1150 SOUTH. THE TORNADO QUICKLY  MOVED NORTHEAST CAUSING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO A SMALL GROVE OF  TREES...CROSSED 1150 SOUTH AND SNAPPED 4 POWER POLES BEFORE LIFTING  NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROADS SOUTH 100 WEST AND  WEST 1150 SOUTH.     OTHER DAMAGE WAS FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE TRACK OF THIS TORNADO THAT  APPEARED CONSISTENT WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF AT LEAST 75 MPH.  SEVERAL CALF SHELTERS WERE PICKED UP WITH THE CALVES STILL IN THEM  AND CARRIED AS FAR AS A MILE TO THE EAST OF THE FARM...WHICH WAS  LOCATION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD SOUTH 100  EAST AND EAST 1200 SOUTH. AT THE TIME OF THE SURVEY...SOME OF THE  CALVES WERE UNACCOUNTED FOR. SEVERAL CENTER PIVOTS IN THE AREA ALSO  WERE FLIPPED.      TORNADO 3: SOUTH WANATAH INDIANA TORNADO    RATING:                 EF-0   ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    85 MPH   PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.1 MILES   PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   50 YARDS  FATALITIES:             0   INJURIES:               0    START DATE:             MARCH 24 2016  START TIME:             126 PM CDT  START LOCATION:         2.5 MI SE OF SOUTH WANATAH, IN  START LAT/LON:          41.3747 / -86.8731    END DATE:               MARCH 24 2016  END TIME:               127 PM CDT  END LOCATION:           2.5 MI SE OF SOUTH WANATAH, IN  END LAT/LON:            41.3748 / -86.8714     SURVEY SUMMARY: A NWS SURVEY OF DAMAGE AND EYEWITNESS REPORTS  INDICATED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN AN OPEN FIELD SOUTHWEST OF  THE INTERSECTION OF WEST COUNTY ROAD 1600 SOUTH AND SOUTH 900 WEST.  THE TORNADO MOVED QUICKLY EAST AND CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A  120 BY 80 FOOT POLE BARN WITH 80 PERCENT OF THE ROOF BEING REMOVED  AND THROWN INTO AN ADJACENT FIELD. NO OTHER DAMAGE WAS NOTED TO  SURROUNDING STRUCTURES AND THE DEBRIS STOPPED ABOUT THREE QUARTERS  OF A MILE EAST OF THE DAMAGED STRUCTURE. AN ADJACENT NORTH-SOUTH  ORIENTED CENTER PIVOT IRRIGATION SYSTEM WAS UNDAMAGED. THE TORNADO  WAS THEREFORE THOUGHT TO HAVE LIFTED SHORTLY AFTER IMPACTING THE  POLE BARN.    WE WISH TO THANK THE LOCAL RESIDENTS AND PROPERTY OWNERS FOR THE  HELP IN ASSESSING THE DAMAGE.   
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Have to give the models credit for nailing the heavy icing out in Wellington, Dufferin counties and the Barrie/Aliston area. The NAM was right in showing an inch+ of precipitation falling as freezing rain in those areas. Accretion in those areas were probably in line with what the December 2013 produced for Toronto. Still over 100,000 customers without power at this time.

 

The HRRR runs the morning of the 24th were correct as well in predicting the cold air that remained entrenched over those areas producing significant freezing rain yesterday evening/night.

 

Pretty amazing setup, and the bow echo that rolled through around 8pm was incredible. I can't ever remember seeing precipitation that heavy during a freezing rain event. It was torrential.

 

All in all, a great event to track. It was funny that some were calling bust yesterday morning and things had barely got going yet!

 

This was the surface analysis just after precipitation finished last night.  Pretty much anywhere to the east got slammed (minus Toronto proper). The warm sector essentially continued to shrink as the cold front approached and the warm front stalled out. For almost the entire day that freeze line never moved even as the heaviest precipitation rolled through.

 

CeXddYrVAAABK-X.jpg

 

Well, those of us saying that were Toronto and it definitely was a bust for Toronto. We got barely 1" of snow! Less than 10 mm of ice accretion. No big wind. Very small QPF. Nothing about this storm was particularly noteworthy for the GTA, and we had lots of model runs with either heavy ZR amounts, heavy snow amounts or high QPF. None of the above came even close to verifying in the end.  

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Well, those of us saying that were Toronto and it definitely was a bust for Toronto. We got barely 1" of snow! Less than 10 mm of ice accretion. No big wind. Very small QPF. Nothing about this storm was particularly noteworthy for the GTA, and we had lots of model runs with either heavy ZR amounts, heavy snow amounts or high QPF. None of the above came even close to verifying in the end.  

 

I'll disagree with you. The f-gen band was a bust but the fact that we never turned over to plain rain kind of saved this storm for me. 28,000 without power in the city proper at the height of the storm. It had an impact even if muted. And 0.64" of QPF at YYZ, while half what the models were spitting out, I couldn't classify as "very small".

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