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March 23-24 System


RyanDe680

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Radar continues to look pretty anemic pretty much everywhere.  Not sure what's the deal.  There's a thin band of storms down south, but it's not enough that you'd think it'd be blocking this much moisture.  System sort of looking like a loser other than that narrow fronto band up north yesterday.  

 

 

Colorado did ok, i guess

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Yeah not much precip at all.

Models blew QPF on this system.

The mixing zone ended up much dryer than modelled. Precipitation type was correct and duration however. Just couldn't get enough liquid to realize the ice amounts the models were putting out.

Still one final round to come before we go above freezing here.

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It seems the snow band was a bit hit and miss.  La Crosse and Green Bay didn't get nearly as much as expected, but there are 11-12 inch totals in nw Iowa and a spot near Sioux City is reporting 17 inches.

 

It appears Cedar Rapids won't see a flake out of this.  For days all the models had a modest band of backwash snow moving across Iowa this morning, but the system's structure really deteriorated and the defo zone snow vanished.

 

I haven't even seen another drop of rain since midnight.

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Tape measure says 3 inches in the driveway....a little more in the grass... just heavy wet sloppy mess.

I was watching the radar up there last night and it looks like heavy snow all the way.

What a horrible bust for you.

Sitting at 34 here now. Let's see if these north winds willeadvect in the colder air now.

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10:30am reading at YYZ had a temp of 28.8f. If the HRRR/RAP are correct, there is reason for concern this evening especially for areas N of the 401. The models have been so bad that I'm not sure what to believe.

attachicon.gifhrrr_ref_toronto_13.png

 

Definitely concerned for GTA... high res are trending the wrong way and temps are solidly below freezing and not budging.

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10:30am reading at YYZ had a temp of 28.8f. If the HRRR/RAP are correct, there is reason for concern this evening especially for areas N of the 401. The models have been so bad that I'm not sure what to believe.

attachicon.gifhrrr_ref_toronto_13.png

 

Going to be a real nail-biter around here. HRRR keep temps below freezing for nearly an inch of precip. Seems hard to believe but looking at surface obs the temp actually fell between 9 and 10am to -2.5C (27.5F) and we're still sitting at -2.2C (28.0F) at noon.

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Might be some unexpected severe weather in a few hours.

 

..OH VLY/MIDWEST TODAY  
 
A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND SOME DEGREE OF  
MID-LVL COOLING WILL OVERSPREAD MIDWESTERN COLD FRONT AS IT  
CONTINUES ENE FROM ERN IL INTO IND AND SRN LWR MI LATER TODAY.  
ALTHOUGH PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING...MODEST LOW-LVL  
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT. CURRENT AND  
FCST SOUNDING SHOW SOME EVIDENCE OF BACK-VEER VERTICAL WIND  
PROFILES...SUGGESTING THAT WIND ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR  
SUPERCELLS. BUT 60-70 KT SSWLY 700-500 MB FLOW AND 500 MB TEMPS  
DECREASING TO AROUND MINUS 17C MAY FOSTER A CONDITIONAL CORRIDOR OF  
REGIONALLY ENHANCED SVR THREAT /WIND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...BRIEF  
TORNADO/. NWD EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY  
PERSISTENT/SHALLOW POLAR AIR IN LWR MI.  

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