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March 23-24 System


RyanDe680

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That secondary area is a challenge, especially as you get toward the WI border and down into IL.  Looks like it could snow hard.  cyclone's area looking decent on the 12 km NAM.

 

Definitely a challenge. I think all models have it right now. As far as the NAM guidance temps, they have been running around 2° too warm all day. Could make all the difference tomorrow. 

 

Colder mid levels advect in pretty quickly mid afternoon.

 

850mbtempmw.png

 

Current SLP. Heading towards MCI.

 

post-7-0-28613200-1458788637.jpg

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With under performing temps feeling good about seeing a little snow tomorrow. Down to 34.5° now. 0.11" of rain. Winds gusting up near 30 mph now.

MKE now at freezing.

 

Here was the GFS. Low track is now where the EURO was at 12z.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

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If we had more cold air, or this was a few weeks back we'd have a shot at a few inches here with that 2nd deform. Looks like we could see a brief period of wet snow at the tail end, but not expecting much, if any accum.

Even more kindly

Likely the gratif heights wil would be a bIt lower with the boundary Layer further South with you getting a major snow

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Is it just me or does this system look pretty odd in regards to precip?  Look how thin the deform axis is.  Yeah it's stout along that deform axis, but it's very narrow.  Hardly any precip outside of the deformation, fronto, and narrow convective axis.  Seems like there should be a considerable amount more precip than what's on the map.

 

4kd5zs.jpg

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I heard one little rumble as the main rain band moved in, otherwise it was just solid rain and good wind.  So far I've picked up 0.63", including the few hundredths that fell this morning.  As cyclone noted, there's not much outside of the narrow bands, so there may not be much more falling here.  The latest model trend is to take the secondary defo precip mostly southeast of here tomorrow morning.

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I had about 6" of cement earlier, pretty much as modeled. Tree branches are already hanging low from the cement, luckily it looks like the heaviest freezing rain is going to miss me 10 miles north or so now. It would have been days without power if I got the 1/2" or more ice the nam was forecasting on top of this cement snow.

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New HRRR continues to indicate rain as dominate precip type for northern IL through 19z tomorrow.  Nice secondary deform, but unfortunately for those that want snow it looks like more wind driven 34-36 degree rain.  The 30-90 minute burst of wet snow at the end of the deformation band could be a bit of a consolation though.  Might look pretty legit for a brief period of time, despite the fact that it won't stick.

 

EDIT:  Up to 0.23".

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New HRRR continues to indicate rain as dominate precip type for northern IL through 19z tomorrow.  Nice secondary deform, but unfortunately for those that want snow it looks like more wind driven 34-36 degree rain.  The 30-90 minute burst of wet snow at the end of the deformation band could be a bit of a consolation though.  Might look pretty legit for a brief period of time, despite the fact that it won't stick.

 

EDIT:  Up to 0.23".

 

HRRR has been running a couple degree too warm around here. EURO has been pretty good with temps so far here. EURO shows steady temps for both of us tonight and then falling off heading towards 18z. Optimistic that I'll see the grass covered by dinner time tomorrow.

 

New map.

 

post-7389-0-77543800-1458799709_thumb.jp

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HRRR has been running a couple degree too warm around here. EURO has been pretty good with temps so far here. EURO shows steady temps for both of us tonight and then falling off heading towards 18z. Optimistic that I'll see the grass covered by dinner time tomorrow.

 

New map.

 

attachicon.gif0z_euro_Thur032416.jpg

 

Nice.  That Euro would fit seasonal trends.  Shows 5" for you, 0.5" for here lol.  Gotta love it.

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Reports of thundersnow coming out of N Central Wisconsin

 

GoSaints and DLL have been getting blasted for awhile.

 

And you're right Cyclone the system seems to be lacking moisture/a wider deformation band. I thought by now we would see more moisture streaming in from the south. 

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HRRR has been running a couple degree too warm around here. EURO has been pretty good with temps so far here. EURO shows steady temps for both of us tonight and then falling off heading towards 18z. Optimistic that I'll see the grass covered by dinner time tomorrow.

New map.

0z_euro_Thur032416.jpg

Is it supposed to snow more today in Iowa?

Reports as of now arnt even half that death band on the euro

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