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March 23-24 System


RyanDe680

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The band over Mn is brutal.

Gonna be some 8-12" totals with areas 20 miles NNW getting nothing.

If that band was overlayed in the STL metro. My community would be in the death band and the majoritt of our 500 local members would be high and dry

It is already happening

 

i5Z0qdG.png

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One of the sickest gradients I've seen in a long time. Just drove 5 mi NW of Minneapolis and the pavement isn't even wet. Not even a flake. Cars driving north on the freeway have 8" on the roof and people driving south are like WTF.

I'm in the wrong Lakeville. Lol

I bet some spots south of MSP around Lakeville gets near 20"

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The HRRR seems to be struggling to pick up on this. May open the door for a faster changeover to -IP/FZDZ before the +ZR moves in by ~10z.

 

Yeah I would be shocked to see more than 2" on the grass.

 

My main concern is freezing rain, but I think the GTA is actually going to fair out relatively well. I don't see this system wreaking too much havoc. Seems to be very hyped by the media, though.

 

I find ZR amounts are rarely as high as forecasted. Even the 2013 ice storm, I think we saw about half of what was forecast.

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Yeah I would be shocked to see more than 2" on the grass.

 

My main concern is freezing rain, but I think the GTA is actually going to fair out relatively well. I don't see this system wreaking too much havoc. Seems to be very hyped by the media, though.

 

I find ZR amounts are rarely as high as forecasted. Even the 2013 ice storm, I think we saw about half of what was forecast.

0.3-0.4" is probably the ceiling in the city. The escarpment or areas north of highway 7 will try to top that mark.

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Yeah I would be shocked to see more than 2" on the grass.

 

My main concern is freezing rain, but I think the GTA is actually going to fair out relatively well. I don't see this system wreaking too much havoc. Seems to be very hyped by the media, though.

 

I find ZR amounts are rarely as high as forecasted. Even the 2013 ice storm, I think we saw about half of what was forecast.

 

 

00Z NAM pulled back drastically on ZR amounts for escarpment areas west of the city, thankfully for them.

 

 

0.3-0.4" is probably the ceiling in the city. The escarpment or areas north of highway 7 will try to top that mark.

 

So, is this storm going to be a bust?

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So, is this storm going to be a bust?

 

Honestly, I never saw it as a big storm for the city. More of a mixed bag. But given what I've seen this evening from the media.. yeah, I'd say it'll be a big bust to a lot of civilians.

 

We'll see some snow, ice pellets, freezing rain, rain, wind...but I don't see anything all that "big" from either category. 

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Yeah I would be shocked to see more than 2" on the grass.

 

My main concern is freezing rain, but I think the GTA is actually going to fair out relatively well. I don't see this system wreaking too much havoc. Seems to be very hyped by the media, though.

 

I find ZR amounts are rarely as high as forecasted. Even the 2013 ice storm, I think we saw about half of what was forecast.

 

I don't recall 2"+ of ice being forecasted for Toronto, and 3-4" just north of the city over to Kingston.

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I don't recall 2"+ of ice being forecasted for Toronto, and 3-4" just north of the city over to Kingston.

 

I can't speak for the surrounding areas, but midtown TO had model outputs of 1.2" to 1.5" a day out. I recall one NAM run (naturally it was the NAM) the day before with 1.9" for the GTA.

 

IMBY we had 0.7" of ice accretion, and we got hit pretty hard. No power for 4 days.

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Freezing line inching into Milwaukee and Madison now. Down to 35.1° here.

 

0z NAM.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

 

MKX would need WSW if this played out.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

 

 

That secondary area is a challenge, especially as you get toward the WI border and down into IL.  Looks like it could snow hard.  cyclone's area looking decent on the 12 km NAM.

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