snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Woah ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 00Z MAR20 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 22-MAR -1.4 -7.2 1017 62 87 0.00 541 528 TUE 18Z 22-MAR 3.0 -3.3 1012 65 99 0.01 544 535 WED 00Z 23-MAR 3.8 0.9 1006 78 91 0.02 546 541 WED 06Z 23-MAR 3.7 0.7 1007 90 75 0.01 547 542 WED 12Z 23-MAR 0.1 -2.9 1013 88 71 0.01 548 537 WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.7 -5.3 1017 58 62 0.00 551 537 THU 00Z 24-MAR 0.5 -5.5 1019 68 69 0.00 552 537 THU 06Z 24-MAR -0.5 -6.1 1020 59 89 0.04 553 537 THU 12Z 24-MAR -2.6 -7.7 1020 62 100 0.03 553 537 THU 18Z 24-MAR -4.0 -6.4 1017 81 99 0.36 553 540 FRI 00Z 25-MAR -3.9 -2.4 1010 87 99 0.52 552 544 FRI 06Z 25-MAR -2.0 4.1 1000 87 79 0.67 547 547 FRI 12Z 25-MAR -4.2 -0.6 1002 85 79 0.17 540 538 FRI 18Z 25-MAR -1.4 -8.2 1009 64 74 0.01 541 534 SAT 00Z 26-MAR -2.0 -9.4 1018 70 21 0.00 545 531 10" of snow followed by 3/4" of ice. That'd be sumtin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 zzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 So the GFS is north and the Euro is south? Go Euro go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I certainly didn't expect the Euro to troll with 24-30" of snow for parts of the metro area. Doubt even 6" verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Holy smokes, LOL. I agree that it most likely will be a big dog. Only in 2016 would the only "big dog" be in spring. Here's the entire CONUS for anyone who lives outside of the region posted! I'd light $1000 on fire to get that verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I certainly didn't expect the Euro to troll with 24-30" of snow for parts of the metro area. Doubt even 6" verifies. Look at the date... central WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I would easily write this one off if the models were flip flopped in their solutions. Interesting to see the euro with that solution so close to the storm, with the way it has performed this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Local offices aren't buying what the Euro is selling at this point. It's been bouncing around quite a bit from run to run. What's surprising is the GFS consistency. This reminds me a bit of GHD III where everyone wrote off the GFS and rode the Euro because it's the Euro. That didn't pan out so well. More changes coming I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The mother of all ice storms here, temps 29-30 with 2" liquid. Yeah, quite a bit of ice just south of the big snow band. Location/amounts aside, becoming more and more likely that this will have a band of significant snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Can't get the 12z GFS for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 This system will have a pretty nice thermal gradient to work with. Also looks like a fairly slow mover with nice flow off the Gulf so things would seem to be lining up for a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Can't get the 12z GFS for some reason. I don't think it even initialized. GEM is little farther south than the 6z GFS. Ice in southern WI, central MI, heavy snow just north of it. 33° rain here. EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I don't think it even initialized. GEM is little farther south than the 6z GFS. Ice in southern WI, central MI, heavy snow just north of it. 33° rain here. Don't know if it will be as dramatic this time but models have that look again with the front coming down the lake, a la Feb 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Can't get the 12z GFS for some reason. NOUS42 KWNO 201644 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1642Z SUN MAR 20 2016 NCO AND EMC STAFF CONTINUE TO TROUBLESHOOT THE PROBLEM WITH THE 12Z GFS. DELAYS AT THIS POINT ARE APPROACHING 2 HOURS AND WILL GROW LONGER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPDATES AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z UK quickly fills the low as it heads from Kansas (994 mb) to central Illinois (1005 mb). It appears it keeps some energy hanging farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Don't know if it will be as dramatic this time but models have that look again with the front coming down the lake, a la Feb 29. That date came to mind. EURO drops that baroclinic zone to the south quickly. Front gets all the way down to south of Kankakee. Other models hang it up around I-80. How strong that first system is on Tuesday will determine how fast that drop can drop through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Yeah, quite a bit of ice just south of the big snow band. Location/amounts aside, becoming more and more likely that this will have a band of significant snow and ice. This event reminds me a lot of April 03, the first week. We had warmth leading into the event, temps even into the 70s this time probably low 60s and then the Arctic front pressed on and contracted as a system moved out on the 4th into the 5th. We had one hell of an ice storm here that knocked out about 450,000 customers just in SE MI alone. The highlight of that event was several hours of TSFZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Time intervals at work here but it seems like the 12z UKMET has that second wave that earlier models were suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z GFS finally initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Can't get the 12z GFS for some reason. The GFS is still sleeping this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 West-central Iowa to southern Wisconsin looked real nice on the Euro. The snowfall maps posted earlier have too much snow on the southern end. Thermals look too warm to support snow until after 18z on Thursday. Weak WAA at 850 lingers until then south of Iowa City to Rockford. Has the looks of a classic Omaha/Sioux City to La Crosse/Madison snowstorm. Not writing it off down along the I-80 corridor yet, but not expecting much here. First calls... Hawkeye 1-2" of slop, with 10-15" a few counties to the north. Here/QC 1" of rain followed by a burst of snow showers Geos 2-6" of snow DLL 8-12" of white cement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The GFS is still sleeping this morning. Went out and hit the bars last night! West-central Iowa to southern Wisconsin looked real nice on the Euro. The snowfall maps posted earlier have too much snow on the southern end. Thermals look too warm to support snow until after 18z on Thursday. Weak WAA at 850 lingers until then south of Iowa City to Rockford. Has the looks of a classic Omaha/Sioux City to La Crosse/Madison snowstorm. Not writing it off down along the I-80 corridor yet, but not expecting much here. First calls... Hawkeye 1-2" of slop, with 10-15" a few counties to the north. Here/QC 1" of rain followed by a burst of snow showers Geos 2-6" of snow DLL 8-12" of white cement Thanks - generous. Some real monsters on the EPS ensembles. E8, E21... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z GFS looks like it will be a little south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Went out and hit the bars last night! Thanks - generous. Some real monsters on the EPS ensembles. E8, E21... E22 would make the most people happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 E22 would make the most people happy. That would make the top 10 for some for sure. 12z GFS 40-50 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Still too far north for my taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I think the EURO will be in between this result and the one last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 At 72 hours, 12z Euro looks fairly similar so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z EURO - So far everything exactly the same at hour 60 with respect to frontal placement. Low starts in SE CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Hour 72-84 low starts to get cranking around Wichita. F-gen band sets up over S WI and N IL like last night. Mix along the state line initially, then goes to snow. ' Front is way down by Lincoln this time at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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