TugHillMatt Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Front making progress past Joliet now. EURO set up the F-Gen band just north of Milwaukee in the late morning. La Crosse to Manitowoc, Green Bay getting smoked. Deformation band more pronounced on this run. Gets going in N IL around 6pm. Where is that precious snow map you post around this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Where is that precious snow map you post around this time? Little tired tonight running out of steam - here it is. NE The EURO doesn't have the 1" ice accumulations this time around has a band of 0.25" from Waterloo to Rochester, NY and another north of the GTA to Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Didn't your area over toward GTA have a very bad ice storm recently too. I want to say a couple Christmases ago.Was just south of here by about 35-45 miles I think we ended up with a few inches of snow and some mix nothing to noteworthy. Gem has little to no freezing rain anywhere in the area but it also has the front more ne to sw oriented vs east to west so it allows more of the area to warm up. Maybe its just a feeling but with any of these early spring setups I always look for the colder solution to be the right way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 EURO pushes the front to Kankakee to Lacon, IL by 7am and parks it there for the morning. Some ice back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 EURO pushes the front to Kankakee to Lacon, IL by 7am and parks it there for the morning. Some ice back to the west. 0zEURO ice.jpg Good call on the farther south front position tomorrow, favored that in wind and temp grids during the daytime tomorrow on the evening update I did for LOT. I'm still skeptical of any ice in northern IL, even northwest where that Eurowx map shows it. Surface temps on the 00z Euro are colder but still right around freezing along with dewpoints right around freezing. Given very stout warm nose aloft from 925 mb and up, would want to see lower dewpoints to be concerned for ice. Regarding any snow potential for far southern WI and northern IL with secondary deformation axis Thursday afternoon, looks like a very narrow window during mid afternoon with forcing and saturation. Wouldn't rule out some decent brief rates whereever the defo band pivots across. However, considering mild sfc and temps aloft as late as 18z and time of day, the snow maps showing a few inches look too bullish to me. Would think maybe some minor (up to a few tenths) slushy accums on colder/grassy surfaces at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 SPC pushed the slight area pretty far into Illinois. HRRR is also pushing up the temperatures tomorrow a bit on both sides of the front compared to GFS and NAM. From SPC D1: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX TO WRN IL... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SCNTRL TX TO SRN IA... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS WHERE A TORNADO OR TWO...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS. ...DISCUSSION... INTENSE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS 90-100KT 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SERN KS BY 24/00Z. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO BY LATE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 60F SFC DEW POINTS WILL ADVANCE NWD INTO ERN OK/AR AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL DRYLINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. WHILE WARM ADVECTION WILL FOCUS ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD...STRONG CAPPING SHOULD RETARD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WEAKEN THE INHIBITING LAYER. LATEST THINKING IS STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL BE NOTED BEHIND THE DRYLINE WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 9 C/KM. WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC IT APPEARS TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AFTER 22Z WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL EXTEND ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE INTO NWRN AR BY PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...STRONG COOLING ALOFT AFTER DARK WILL ALLOW AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MO INTO WRN IL. WHILE SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF MO...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ROBUST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SFC LOW THAT SHOULD TRACK TO NEAR UIN BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. A TORNADO OR TWO...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TX...CONSIDERABLY LESS FORCING WILL BE NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES INTO SCNTRL TX WEDNESDAY. STRONG CAPPING WILL PREVENT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY UNTIL AFTER DARK WHEN PROFILES COOL ALOFT. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND FRONTAL FORCING MAY RESULT IN LINEAR/MULTI-CELL CONVECTION BEING THE PRIMARY MODE. HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW/BUNTING.. 03/23/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 This area looks to be ground zero... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 This storm has March 2005 written all over it...at least for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Looks like I'll be in for a bit of an ice storm tonight. Seeing consensus on almost all the short range models for at least 1/2 inch of ice, up to 1" on some runs. Higher end models seem to think we'll hold on to below zero temperatures into the daytime tomorrow as the bulk of precip moves through. That remains to be seen IMO but I think overnight there's quite a good chance to see close to a half inch of ice. Will post pics of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Light snow here already. A little surprised that the column saturated already. Dry air was supposed to be take longer to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Light snow here already. A little surprised that the column saturated already. Dry air was supposed to be take longer to overcome. Light snow here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Looks like I'll be in for a bit of an ice storm tonight. Seeing consensus on almost all the short range models for at least 1/2 inch of ice, up to 1" on some runs. Higher end models seem to think we'll hold on to below zero temperatures into the daytime tomorrow as the bulk of precip moves through. That remains to be seen IMO but I think overnight there's quite a good chance to see close to a half inch of ice. Will post pics of course You may be in for trouble where you are. We drove up to Fergus and thru Guelph on the way home on Monday, and a noticed a sizeable drop in temp from the GTA. Locally, I'm hoping for a minimal amt of freezing rain. Seen the results of ice storms in the past, and it's not pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 4KM is very wet for N. IL nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Snow flying here..obviously the main event is a ways away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Light snow here as well. Nice. Good luck down there. You're gonna get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 good luck to chitown storm, frank, gosaints, et al Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Congrats, About time Lacrosse gets buried.. They are like the detroit of wisc of late winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Sprinkling here. I see the f-gen band was south of the EURO. Front made it all the way to the north side of Peoria to Watseka IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Anybody have some good ice accumulation maps? I'm getting quite worried here now, the meteocentre one I usually look at shows a blob of 1.5" ice accretion just 30 miles to my southwest on the 12z NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 don't worry about ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Looks like I'll be in for a bit of an ice storm tonight. Seeing consensus on almost all the short range models for at least 1/2 inch of ice, up to 1" on some runs. Higher end models seem to think we'll hold on to below zero temperatures into the daytime tomorrow as the bulk of precip moves through. That remains to be seen IMO but I think overnight there's quite a good chance to see close to a half inch of ice. Will post pics of course We're right in the bullseye. 2cm/0.78" of ice in our warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Quite a bit of ice falls in central MI after sunset tonight. 0.50" accumulation centered on the county northeast of Kent.http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=accfrzr&rh=2016032312&fh=27&r=ne&dpdt= All of this ice in Ontario falls during the night. I see the upper 20s infiltrate the area as the night goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 don't worry about ice You might need an arc. GFS close to 2 inches of rain for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 First 0.2" of snow from this system up here on the ridge outside of La Crosse, WI. Just started snowing hard - huge flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 The grass is about covered here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 You got a really nice view Gaylord. Temps are 3-4° under HRRR, and NAM guidance around Madison, so that could play up the sleet more. Evaporative cooling doing some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 NAM builds some decent CAPE tomorrow, which is a change from earlier runs. Should note that the GFS is much less bullish once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Really thinking Alpena might jackpot this whole deal. God knows, they deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Sleeting here in Menomonee Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Thanks! My family and I were fortunate enough to find a great house and a bunch of land up here on the ridge. Moved from the Gaylord NWS office to La Crosse back in September. The weather up here (about 700 feet above the valley floor) is just awesome...always windy and colder than down below. Grass is covered now. Agree about temps being a little on the cooler side. No real surprise given the strength of that high and airmass the past few days up across southern Canada. Down to 29° here at the house. You got a really nice view Gaylord. Temps are 3-4° under HRRR, and NAM guidance around Madison, so that could play up the sleet more. Evaporative cooling doing some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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