TugHillMatt Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Looks like the GEM will follow the GFS track from St. Joe, MO. 997mb over Grundy, County at 60 hours. Yeah she's going to regret laughing about that shovel! The models aren't backing off these 2' amounts. 1000mb GEM low over BUF at 72 hours. GFS has the low north of Kingston, ON....much different than Buffalo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 GEM is pulling what the NAM did. Slows the low down and pumps up the mild air. Actually more than the NAM. Chicago is about 40° at this time on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Lol....same old theme from this entire "cold" season. Miss to the southeast....or stupidly mild with the warm air coming way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 RC, any quick thoughts on convective prospects Thursday morning? Just checked the GFS and it has less CAPE than the NAM/4 km NAM as is often the case.Tough call, has decent dynamics and mid-level lapse rates going for it and excellent speed shear but fairly poor moisture return. Even NAM is pretty modest with CAPE values. In the Thursday morning time to watch, wonder if the marginal moisture return and resulting instability will make it tough for widespread sustained stronger convection in the face of steep lapse rates which means possible capping issues. Also the high levels of wind shear could tear some updrafts apart. Getting dewpoints as high as possible certainly wouldn't hurt. Overall I think severe threat appears mainly isolated ahead of the cold front and would expect SPC to maintain marginal risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I don't think the GEM is happening with that frontal position. It then cools off after that with the low still to the west... It's like all of a sudden the low stops pumping up the mild air. Yeah - ok. Anyway, the snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Issuing a watch far out is not a terrible thing in and of itself, I think the problem is issuing one beyond even 60 hours in a situation where only one set of guidance supports the scenario the watch was issued for. As I had responded to a question about typical watch issuance protocol, extended lead time watches beyond 48 hours are reserved commonly for very high confidence scenarios. This would mean very good agreement across the guidance and other supporting factors in observations. Yeah, that does make sense. I agree it was risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Tough call, has decent dynamics and mid-level lapse rates going for it and excellent speed shear but fairly poor moisture return. Even NAM is pretty modest with CAPE values. In the Thursday morning time to watch, wonder if the marginal moisture return and resulting instability will make it tough for widespread sustained stronger convection in the face of steep lapse rates which means possible capping issues. Also the high levels of wind shear could tear some updrafts apart. Getting dewpoints as high as possible certainly wouldn't hurt. Overall I think severe threat appears mainly isolated ahead of the cold front and would expect SPC to maintain marginal risk. Thanks. Already getting tired of moisture quality issues lol but it is only March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Thanks. Already getting tired of moisture quality issues lol but it is only March.Lol true, hopefully not a continuing issue deeper into the season. It does feel like it's later than late March already with the overall mild winter, 70s in early March and a severe event already last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Big boy upper jet...overlays the frontal zone/warm sector well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Several GEFS ensembles south of the operational. None near WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Several GEFS ensembles south of the operational. None near WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I'll take e12 Wedges! ----- EURO isn't wavering on the low position in SW KS at least. Front comes through around 7pm on the EURO. That hasn't changed. F-gen band sets up where it was last night on the 0z run. South of the 12z... Freezing line down to Menominee Falls at 7am Wednesday. Front through Kankakee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Front gets hung up from Merrillville to Galesburg. Low cuts from just south of Lawrence, KS to Columbia, MO. Then just north of STL. Just west of LAF at 66 hours. Freezing line stalls near the state line here. 72 hours just south of Windsor. Looks like this run might have more ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I'll take e12 Wedges! ----- EURO isn't wavering on the low position in SW KS at least. Front comes through around 7pm on the EURO. That hasn't changed. F-gen band sets up where it was last night on the 0z run. South of the 12z... Freezing line down to Menominee Falls at 7am Wednesday. Front through Kankakee. Just won't quit with the more southern placement. Edit: front literally wobbles within 5-10 miles of me (sometimes basically overhead) for like 18 hours. That can be interesting in its own way with the changing conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Congrats, GFS. (Still a bit south of the GFS, but you get it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Yeah it's becoming apparent that the Euro got schooled by the GFS and others. Just goes to show it's wrong sometimes, and at times it's wrong on some of the high impact storms. Keeps things interesting at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Doh! The king caved. 1.5" would be enough to get to normal snowfall for the season here. Ice down this way now. Throwing in the towel for anything more then 2" of snow a bit of ice and cold rain to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 What's that sound, its the sound of the Euro caving to the GFS. I will take my thunderstorms instead anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxman23 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Anyone have the full Euro snowfall image showing Ontario? Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 The winter that never was looks to end with a bang. Might end the year above norm in the snowfall totals. Naso much for your area. You guys weren't all that far below normal for snowfall coming into this event. Good chance you bump up to near or above normal with this. Compared to areas south you guys had a winter for the ages lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 EUROwx maps a slightly more generous in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 SPC maintained the marginal risk for day 2...stops around the IL/IN border. Wouldn't be surprised to see a risk area on the day 3 outlook to cover what happens after 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Anyone have the full Euro snowfall image showing Ontario? Thanks!! Welcome to Americanwx! I think you might want to see the ice map as well. Pretty serious accumulations there. And it never gets above freezing in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxman23 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I think you might want to see the ice map as well. Pretty serious accumulations there. Thanks Geos!! King euro caves to the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Woke up to alleviate my old bladder.. Page 10 was painful and then I got all excited reading the Euro wasn't budging Perfect and only way for this event and winter to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Woke up to alleviate my old bladder.. Page 10 was painful and then I got all excited reading the Euro wasn't budging Perfect and only way for this event and winter to end. It was looking good for the first 36 hours. The slowing down the system is allowing the mid levels to warm too much. Ice cold rain is going to be a drag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 It was looking good for the first 36 hours. The slowing down the system is allowing the mid levels to warm too much. Ice cold rain is going to be a drag. Don't fret, we might have one more shot. Also, that ice map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Not even interested in driving to the storm.. If its not imby snow its just not the same unless it's some freak event and nothing outside of some super sick LES rates would sniff the GHD storm intensity. Day off thurs would be a good of day if there was any (and there never is) as any to waste at the movie theater for an all day marathon and gorge on snacks and catch up on sleep in between the junk being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Throwing in the towel for anything more then 2" of snow a bit of ice and cold rain to begin with.This was always rain around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Don't fret, we might have one more shot. Also, that ice map. Yeah I see it still. 6 days from now. 48 hours to go until this one starts. Only hope would be for a more aggressive cold front. This was always rain around here. Can never tell when the EURO is onto something or not. Had 3 runs in a row with 12" or better here. 6 years ago to the day I had 15" of snow. So I know it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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