Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Basically right over me on Wednesday afternoon. Could see it try to wobble north as the sfc low approaches. Yeah it does once it approaches the MS River. Even tighter gradient across northern IL now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 GEOS doesnt want you to get any snow lol. Geos is a good guy. I could honestly care less about the snow. I really just want to see the new and improved Euro bust hard core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 lol. Geos is a good guy. I could honestly care less about the snow. I really just want to see the new and improved Euro bust hard core. Yes GEOS works hard... 4km NAM goes to town in the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 What is GRR to do? If they believe this. 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I'm getting more excited about thunderstorms than snow with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I am dumber than a box a rocks when it comes to weather, but them putting that watch out that earlier was even beyond my level of stupid What is GRR to do? If they believe this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 This could(and probably will) end up being pretty embarrassing for GRR calling for 8+ of snow 2 days before and 0" and rain less than a day before the storm. That will throw people for a loop should the GFS and NAM win out vs the EURO. Edit: looks like GRR adjusted the watch to 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I'm getting more excited about thunderstorms than snow with this one. I 100% agree with you. NAM has CAPE pushing 1k into parts of Illinois. Just excited at the chance to get some more lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I'm getting more excited about thunderstorms than snow with this one. With luck you could have some thunder sleet going on. Did you get that in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I 100% agree with you. NAM has CAPE pushing 1k into parts of Illinois. Just excited at the chance to get some more lightning. 4km shows the storm development in IL in the 9z-12z timeframe on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 4km shows the storm development in IL in the 9z-12z timeframe on Thursday. nam4km_ref_uv10m_ncus_19.png nam4km_ref_uv10m_ncus_20.png Scheduling my all-nighter now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 That quite a gradient in NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 This could(and probably will) end up being pretty embarrassing for GRR calling for 8+ of snow 2 days before and 0" and rain less than a day before the storm. That will throw people for a loop should the GFS and NAM win out vs the EURO. Edit: looks like GRR adjusted the watch to 6+. But in the end most of the watch would be justified and upgraded based on the freezing rain amounts the nam is putting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted March 22, 2016 Author Share Posted March 22, 2016 4km NAM stalls the front in northern Cook County. FWIW it didn't handle the 2.29 front very well. I've been following that all along. Seems to give clues as to how much snow and where. You can see clear cut where snow isn't even a possibility.Following the dews too could spell some imbedded storms. If cape values get up there could be a fun event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 I've been following that all along. Seems to give clues as to how much snow and where. You can see clear cut where snow isn't even a possibility. Same here. I've been watching where the front has to get to get some snow here and of course that is at least Kankakee, preferably Bloomington. Of course that is the EURO and not far behind the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Wow. You guys are way too quick to judge holy crap. Why all the hate with GRR? The point of a watch isto get the word out on possible inclement weather.They had good reasoning for putting it out and last nights AFD by DTX said they were going to put one out for their Monday Afternoon Package. Point is there is a real chance at some bad weather, people need to know about it. Especially since tomorrow is going to be 60. Might it not happen well duh, thats why it's a watch and not a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 4km shows the storm development in IL in the 9z-12z timeframe on Thursday. nam4km_ref_uv10m_ncus_19.png nam4km_ref_uv10m_ncus_20.png Strange to see that composite radar and parameters for 4-7 AM. Stranger things have happened this time of year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 One thing to note about the NAM/4km NAM is that they only get mid 50s surface dews up to I-80 at best, so the 500-1000 J/kg CAPE being advertised is occurring in a relatively low dewpoint environment...and it shouldn't be that difficult for mid 50s dews to reach up somewhere into northern IL/IN given the dynamics/low level jet with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Wow. You guys are way too quick to judge holy crap. Why all the hate with GRR? The point of a watch isto get the word out on possible inclement weather. They had good reasoning for putting it out and last nights AFD by DTX said they were going to put one out for their Monday Afternoon Package. Point is there is a real chance at some bad weather, people need to know about it. Especially since tomorrow is going to be 60. Might it not happen well duh, thats why it's a watch and not a warning. No matter on how you try to spin it. It was and will likely be the worst forecast in the history of forecasting. There was NO reason to issue a watch 72 hours before the storm in Michigan. This is not Arkansas. Lol. We can handle snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 GFS is a little bit south so far. Just north of MCI to GYY now. Ice for Madison and SW WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 No matter on how you try to spin it. It was and will likely be the worst forecast in the history of forecasting. There was NO reason to issue a watch 72 hours before the storm in Michigan. This is not Arkansas. Lol. We can handle snow. It seems to me that 72 hours is beyond their time-window criteria for winter storm watches. Isn't it usually 48 hours? Honestly, the exact rules on timing of watches/warnings/advisories is confusing to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 It seems to me that 72 hours is beyond their time-window criteria for winter storm watches. Isn't it usually 48 hours? Honestly, the exact rules on timing of watches/warnings/advisories is confusing to me. Not sure on that, but they issued the watch ~60 hrs before the event so it's not too bad, earlier than normal but this could be a sneaky event for people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Looks like the GEM will follow the GFS track from St. Joe, MO. 997mb over Grundy, County at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 GFS is a little bit south so far. Just north of MCI to GYY now. Ice for Madison and SW WI. Seriously...27 inches... The check out lady at Menards was wondering why i was buying a shovel maybe 2 weeks ago and i said winter isn't done yet. She laughed... she'll be laughing now when her car is buried in 20 inches of concrete mixer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 The GFS definitely went south with the track of the low on this run. Hopefully it is the start of it going in a southerly direction. Instead of going through Chicago and Grand Rapids, it now goes through Gary and Lansing. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Not sure on that, but they issued the watch ~60 hrs before the event so it's not too bad, earlier than normal but this could be a sneaky event for people.Issuing a watch far out is not a terrible thing in and of itself, I think the problem is issuing one beyond even 60 hours in a situation where only one set of guidance supports the scenario the watch was issued for. As I had responded to a question about typical watch issuance protocol, extended lead time watches beyond 48 hours are reserved commonly for very high confidence scenarios. This would mean very good agreement across the guidance and other supporting factors in observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Not sure on that, but they issued the watch ~60 hrs before the event so it's not too bad, earlier than normal but this could be a sneaky event for people. Yeah... a sneaky rain which only serves to lessen public confidence in general regarding the accuracy of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Seriously...27 inches... The check out lady at Menards was wondering why i was buying a shovel maybe 2 weeks ago and i said winter isn't done yet. She laughed... she'll be laughing now when her car is buried in 20 inches of concrete mixer. Yeah she's going to regret laughing about that shovel! The models aren't backing off these 2' amounts. 1000mb GEM low over BUF at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 The winter that never was looks to end with a bang. Might end the year above norm in the snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Issuing a watch far out is not a terrible thing in and of itself, I think the problem is issuing one beyond even 60 hours in a situation where only one set of guidance supports the scenario the watch was issued for. As I had responded to a question about typical watch issuance protocol, extended lead time watches beyond 48 hours are reserved commonly for very high confidence scenarios. This would mean very good agreement across the guidance and other supporting factors in observations. RC, any quick thoughts on convective prospects Thursday morning? Just checked the GFS and it has less CAPE than the NAM/4 km NAM as is often the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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