Indystorm Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 On the t storm side of things it is interesting that IND AFD is currently downplaying the possibility of t storms with this system due to instability and moisture issues. But dews are still very low from here to the Gulf, and with the Gulf being scoured we have a time issue once again for quality moisture to make it up this way for svr prospects. But that sounding Hoosier posted is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Definitely seen this kind of setup produce solid elevated sups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Looking forward to my wind-drive light rain and 41*F temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 DVN mentioned the possibility of the cold air to the north influencing the low track further south. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE ECMWFFARTHER NORTH BUT THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TOPREVIOUS RUNS. THE CONSENSUS WOULD THEN TAKE THE STRONG CYCLONEROUGHLY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTONORTHERN INDIANA ON THURSDAY. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE OVERTHE CWA WITH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVING MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET...WHILE THE I-80 CORRIDOR STARTS OUT WITH RAIN THEN TRANSITIONING TOSLEET AND THEN SNOW. OUR SOUTHERN CWA WILL HAVE MAINLY RAIN THENTURNING TO SLEET AND SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. VERYCOLD AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKESWHICH COULD ULTIMATELY FORCE THIS SYSTEM EVEN FARTHER SOUTH MAKINGFOR A BIGGER SLEET OR SNOW STORM. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORERUNS TO HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLYISSUING ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT. THE BIG QUESTION WILLBE HOW MUCH FALLS AS RAIN INITIALLY...THEN HOW LONG THE SLEET LASTSBEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. OF COURSE...THE AMOUNT OF FROZENPRECIPITATION WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DAYSBEYOND THIS EVENT. WE HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMSWEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS TOWARDS THE CWAAND A STORNG LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THEAREA. HOWEVER...CAPE WILL BE MINIMAL WHICH IS THE REASON FOR ONLYMENTIONING ISOLATED STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 On the t storm side of things it is interesting that IND AFD is currently downplaying the possibility of t storms with this system due to instability and moisture issues. But dews are still very low from here to the Gulf, and with the Gulf being scoured we have a time issue once again for quality moisture to make it up this way for svr prospects. But that sounding Hoosier posted is interesting. Time of day isn't that favorable either as it looks like it would mainly be a morning event, but that forecast sounding I posted was uncapped with negligible CIN even at 12z which got my attention. Winter prospects ain't happening here so this is the only chance for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The GFS is really stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 18z gfs looks like squat for MKE I'm with the GFS on this one...this is a central WI storm. I'll pick up 4 to 8 inches of cement... more on the bluffs.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 18z gfs looks like squat for MKE Actually Milwaukee gets a little later on as the low pulls away. Low passes from just south of Moline to Grand Rapids via northern Cook County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 GFS sticking to its guns on the 18z. Gives a little more buffer room on the northern fringe too. Gotta give it props for its consistency. MPX: THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH TARGETING SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS BARELY BUDGED AND HAS CONTINUED THE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI. IT IS INTERESTING THAT A LOCAL COMPARISON OF LATENT HEATING VS NON LATENT HEATING SHOWS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK. HOWEVER ITS GFS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS YIELD A NORTHERN SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN AT LEAST A HALF A FOOT OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...SO HAVE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THAT AREA. THE NAM AND GFS CERTAINLY CAN NOT BE IGNORED FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH SUCH AS THE TWIN CITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO GO WITH A WATCH AT THIS TIME. DID INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA...WITH 4 TO 5 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN METRO...AND 1 TO 2 ACROSS THE NORTHERN METRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 The GFS is really stubborn. It does produce a nice thump of snow Wednesday afternoon for the GTA, but it changes to freezing rain Wednesday overnight and rain early Thursday morning. If my memory serves me correctly, I believe 850 temps were above zero for the entire event in the 1st week of April 2003, which gave a ton of sleet and some freezing rain in the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 4km NAM stalls the front in northern Cook County. FWIW it didn't handle the 2.29 front very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Given the GFS coup this past weekend with regard to New England and NYC, I suspect it may be on a roll and will win this battle. The euro hasn't done very well this year. I'm thinking it'll mainly be a cold rain event for the GTA, with heavy wet snow to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 On the t storm side of things it is interesting that IND AFD is currently downplaying the possibility of t storms with this system due to instability and moisture issues. But dews are still very low from here to the Gulf, and with the Gulf being scoured we have a time issue once again for quality moisture to make it up this way for svr prospects. But that sounding Hoosier posted is interesting. Not to mention GFS keeps showing very strong MLJ. Would be a decent setup for a low-topped squall, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Given the GFS coup this past weekend with regard to New England and NYC, I suspect it may be on a roll and will win this battle. The euro hasn't done very well this year. I'm thinking it'll mainly be a cold rain event for the GTA, with heavy wet snow to our northwest. Must be a regional thing, as the euro has performed much better around here than the GFS this winter. Although, with the general piss poor performance, that is saying little. However, it doesn't sound like the euro has verified very well since the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 In terms of 5 day NH verification scores at 500mb, the GFS(0.896) has fallen to fourth place behind the European(0.929), UKMET(0.917) and CMC(0.907). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Given the GFS coup this past weekend with regard to New England and NYC, I suspect it may be on a roll and will win this battle. The euro hasn't done very well this year. I'm thinking it'll mainly be a cold rain event for the GTA, with heavy wet snow to our northwest. Even the GFS has an ice storm (or IP storm) Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 The GFS looks like it miiiiiight be trying to flatten the low track a bit more. You can see this the farther east/northeast you look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Even the GFS has an ice storm (or IP storm) Wednesday night. Do you think this ice event could potentially rival that of December 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Not to mention GFS keeps showing very strong MLJ. Would be a decent setup for a low-topped squall, I think. Several of the CIPS analogs were severe wx makers. I'd like to check those events to see how various things compare (especially moisture) but can't do it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 H5 vort digging more across the four corners region on the 0z NAM. May allow the system to come in slower and slightly further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 NAM is a touch further south in northern KS, instead of southern NE. Front makes it into southern Cook County by 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Do you think this ice event could potentially rival that of December 2013? Considering that was a once in 50-60 year event, I'll say no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 H5 vort digging more across the four corners region on the 0z NAM. May allow the system to come in slower and slightly further south. The little s/w over the southern Prairies is flatter and scoots east fast as well. Less phase potential = maybe a further south track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Low is staying in KS so far. Front pushes to I-80, 3 hours earlier than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Low is staying in KS so far. Front pushes to I-80, 3 hours earlier than the 18z run. ehh. pretty much the same through 48 maybe a little slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 NAM is a touch further south in northern KS, instead of southern NE. Front makes it into southern Cook County by 36 hours. Basically right over me on Wednesday afternoon. Could see it try to wobble north as the sfc low approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 ehh. pretty much the same through 48 maybe a little slower Yeah through 51 it's just slower, no significant changes in the low track so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Yeah through 51 it's just slower, no significant changes in the low track so far. GEOS doesnt want you to get any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2016 Share Posted March 22, 2016 Started out colder and further south but the s/w ejects slowly enough to allow it to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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