March 23-24 System

[UMB WX]

Since I'm off Thursday this one might be worth a casino run to the pile of crap casino in the wi dells.

On the positive side we do ice storms even worse than this winter so not much threat of siggy ice

[Geos]

Challenging/high ramification forecast for the offices up north.  Does the Euro keep baby stepping north toward other guidance, does the other guidance start to shift south?  Good thing is there's still time to figure it out. 

 

One thing I will side with is the EURO's cold front passage clearing the bottom of the lake and then some.

[harrisale]

euroice_032416.png

Thanks, man. Much appreciated. Some big numbers in there. Suspect that band will shift north some in coming runs.

[wisconsinwx]

Is there a reason Geos other than wishcasting?

[Geos]

Is there a reason Geos other than wishcasting?

 

I'm putting out my thoughts out and tracking like the rest of us.

 

I would feel pretty good if I was you to get double digits totals. I agree with this EURO run, it looks reasonable.

[UMB WX]

I greatly appreciate all the long hrs Geo's puts in for all of us.

Indices update from Buffalo wx could be a nice piece to the puzzle or nail in coffin

[hlcater]

Waterloo gets 20" more than CR despite being only 1 county north lol.

[UMB WX]

seems every storm has had a ridiculous gradient

[A-L-E-K]

seems every storm has had a ridiculous gradient

 

not surprising given we have had essentially no deep sustained cold all winter

 

this setup is no different there

[TugHillMatt]

_{Well the most recent run of the Euro seals the deal on how much I hate this winter. If I get an inch or two of snow while one county to the north gets two feet of snow..............}

[Geos]

I greatly appreciate all the long hrs Geo's puts in for all of us.

Indices update from Buffalo wx could be a nice piece to the puzzle or nail in coffin

 

If we both miss this one, maybe the next one will get us. EURO has 3-5" south of this system. That's like on Monday/Monday night though.

[Hoosier]

Is there a reason Geos other than wishcasting?

 

 

Cold front accelerating down the lake is something we see quite frequently in spring.  The argument against it to some extent is that this isn't a pure mesoscale/lake breeze situation and it could be overwhelmed by what's going on synoptically, but I'd still lean toward the front getting farther south than the non-ECMWF models.

[A-L-E-K]

Cold front accelerating down the lake is something we see quite frequently in spring.  The argument against it to some extent is that this isn't a pure mesoscale/lake breeze situation and it could be overwhelmed by what's going on synoptically, but I'd still lean toward the front getting farther south than the non-ECMWF models.

 

likely

 

[UMB WX]

Yeah either a miss to the south with an ejecting low from burbon Street when we did have just eniugh cold air or congrats GB. This one at first glance looked no different

[outflow]

Nothing to really add except durning the the April 03 ice storm forecasted temps here were in the low 70s only two days before our 3/4,inch of ice. Just a thought

[weatherbo]

I'd like to see the GFS pull this off.  Even as the main snow storm will likely be south of me, ne winds should help out locally.

 

I'd never pass on a big dog... even this time of the year.

[cyclone77]

Euro is still the furthest south, and even with that still too warm for even far northern IL to receive much snow.  The surface cold front may settle down into central IL, as Geos suggests, but that won't matter much if the pesky warm layer above the boundary layer remains.  Weak WAA will maintain that warm layer through at least 75hrs.  Some precip falls after that, but for the most part the event is over.  Heaviest corridor of snow looks to line up from Waterloo/Mason City IA to Sheboygan/Milwaukee.  

 

[Hoosier]

Euro is still the furthest south, and even with that still too warm for even far northern IL to receive much snow.  The surface cold front may settle down into central IL, as Geos suggests, but that won't matter much if the pesky warm layer above the boundary layer remains.  Weak WAA will maintain that warm layer through at least 75hrs.  Some precip falls after that, but for the most part the event is over.  Heaviest corridor of snow looks to line up from Waterloo/Mason City IA to Sheboygan/Milwaukee.  

 

 

 

For northern IL I think it's less a question of whether there will be significant snow than it is how much mixed precip falls, especially north of Chicago.  Can't see full soundings but thermal profiles look messy...of course any shift north would take most of the mixed precip threat out of the area.

[TravisWx]

APX just issued WSW for basically all of the northern lower peninsula of MI.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

LOT comments on the boundary

 

THE BOUNDARY IS  STILL EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE AND NORTHERN  ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER  AGREEMENT WITH THIS BOUNDARY HOLDING STATIONARY RIGHT AROUND THE  I88 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY  FOR THIS TO SAG EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. EVEN WITHOUT THIS  POSSIBILITY...THE FORECAST BEGINS TO GET REAL COMPLICATED WITH  REGARD TO HIGH TEMPS/TEMP TRENDS AND THUNDER POTENTIAL DURING THE  DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THIS  LINGERING BOUNDARY BUT AT THIS TIME...TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 40S  AND POSSIBLY NOT EVEN MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S NORTH OF THE FRONT  AND THEN RISE INTO THE 60S SOUTH OF THIS FRONT.  

[Chitown Storm]

Offices certainly don't appear to be leaning on the Euro with the WSWs and afternoon graphics.

[harrisale]

12Z GGEM continued to put up some big precip totals

 

[blizzardof96]

12z EPS mean shifts the snow swath slightly further north again(it's been trending that way for the past few runs). Nonetheless, the mean has ~1.5" QPF for the city of Toronto, most of which falls when sfc temps are AOB 0c. Tough to say what p-type will fall given the narrowness of the band but I'm personally leaning away from mostly snow or mostly rain at this point.

 

ECMWF OP has massive QPF amounts. Lehs noticeable around YHM.

[Hoosier]

In terms of thunderstorm potential, not a bad forecast sounding for 12z.  This is from north central IL near the surface low on Thursday morning.

 

 

 

 

Setup lacks good low level moisture but otherwise, a number of favorable ingredients for strong/severe storms. 

 

 

 

[Geos]

Cold front accelerating down the lake is something we see quite frequently in spring.  The argument against it to some extent is that this isn't a pure mesoscale/lake breeze situation and it could be overwhelmed by what's going on synoptically, but I'd still lean toward the front getting farther south than the non-ECMWF models.

 

I can't remember the last time an early spring cold front from the north failed to clear the bottom of the lake. Maybe this will be an exception.

As the discussion you posted stated, it all comes down that.

If it is anything like 2/29, then the front might be even faster than the EURO is suggesting.

 

EURO gets the front to this position as the low leaves KS.

 

[snowstormcanuck]

12z EPS mean shifts the snow swath slightly further north again(it's been trending that way for the past few runs). Nonetheless, the mean has ~1.5" QPF for the city of Toronto, most of which falls when sfc temps are AOB 0c. Tough to say what p-type will fall given the narrowness of the band but I'm personally leaning away from mostly snow or mostly rain at this point.

 

ECMWF OP has massive QPF amounts. Lehs noticeable around YHM.

ecmwf_tprecip_toronto_17.png

 

Until the models zero in on the track I won't speculate about the p-types and the progression between them, especially considering the tightness of the transitional zones. WPC likes a compromise between the GFS and EURO and that doesn't sound unreasonable to me.

[blizzardof96]

On the 12z euro, 2.2"(55mm) of QPF is frozen at yyz(either SN, ZR or PL). Pretty nasty, even if overdone.

[snowstormcanuck]

On the 12z euro, 2.2"(55mm) of QPF is frozen at yyz(either SN/ZR or PL). Pretty nasty, even if overdone.

 

Per the snowfall map Geos posted it looks like about a foot of snow derived from that...unlikely given the trends.

[Geos]

Euro is still the furthest south, and even with that still too warm for even far northern IL to receive much snow.  The surface cold front may settle down into central IL, as Geos suggests, but that won't matter much if the pesky warm layer above the boundary layer remains.  Weak WAA will maintain that warm layer through at least 75hrs.  Some precip falls after that, but for the most part the event is over.  Heaviest corridor of snow looks to line up from Waterloo/Mason City IA to Sheboygan/Milwaukee.  

 

 

I like your map. The warm nose was more prominent on this run. Only talking 20 miles difference, but it was noticeable along the southern edge. 

Dubuque to Milwaukee to Tropical land looks prime.

 

EPS at 72 hours has the 850 freezing line slightly south of the operational.

 

[blizzardof96]

Until the models zero in on the track I won't speculate about the p-types and the progression between them, especially considering the tightness of the transitional zones. WPC likes a compromise between the GFS and EURO and that doesn't sound unreasonable to me.

I agree.