RyanDe680 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Looks like a soaker for the majority of the subforum. I hate going a week out because so much changes, but there's nothing else to talk about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 As has been mentioned in the winter thread, looks like potentially a band of snow/mix on the northern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 18z GFS is reminiscent of that late Feb storm with the huge gradient between Chicago and northwest IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Soaker with some north edge snow. Posted the EURO snowfall map in the winter thread. It's a 2 wave system really. First comes on the 23rd, then the 24th into early the 25th. Total snowfall through the 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 18Z GFS would be a pretty decent ice event for part's of Southern MI/Canada., also has around 30mph wind gust's with the ice which would be pretty bad for power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 00z Euro went big for potions of Wisconsin and Michigan. I'd like to keep this thing N.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The potential for significant mixing through/north of the GTA is beginning to gain some support on the globals. The EC/EPS/GEFS and now the GFS have something notable. Basically going to see a CO low track ENE into the plains with a strong high across Que allowing QPF north of the WF to stay frozen. Where this zone sets up may take a while to pinpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Typical Iowa March weather right here 30 and heavy snow in the northern 1/4 and 60s-70s with moderate rain in the southern 2/3. The GFS is stronger this run and only steepens the gradient of temperatures found across the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The potential for significant mixing through/north of the GTA is beginning to gain some support on the globals. The EC/EPS/GEFS and now the GFS have something notable. Basically going to see a CO low track ENE into the plains with a strong high across Que allowing QPF north of the WF to stay frozen. Where this zone sets up may take a while to pinpoint. Kind of looks like the first week of April in 2003. Below freezing temps and frozen precip in the GTA and 70s south of the warm front. Last night's 00z UKMET is similar as well. Today's 12z GFS gives a significant dump of snow for the GTA during the day Wednesday before changing to sleet/freezing rain overnight into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Models are sort of flopping around on the multi-wave solution, which was key to getting snow chances farther south. We'll see if it comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 12z GFS and GEM with some pretty good consistency. Not sure I really want this, but if it's gonna happen let's go big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 stunned, another storm with an advertised small corridor of goods. later in snow season that's probably common but its been that way w/e you want to call this past snow snow season its seemed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Kind of looks like the first week of April in 2003. Below freezing temps and frozen precip in the GTA and 70s south of the warm front. Last night's 00z UKMET is similar as well. Today's 12z GFS gives a significant dump of snow for the GTA during the day Wednesday before changing to sleet/freezing rain overnight into Thursday. Gonna be interesting. Was planning on making the trek back to Toronto for the Easter Weekend late on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Gonna be interesting. Was planning on making the trek back to Toronto for the Easter Weekend late on Wednesday. 12z Euro has near 1" frozen... Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 12z Euro has near 1" frozen... Something to keep an eye on. 1" of PL/SN...or 1" liquid QPF equivalent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 1" of PL/SN...or 1" liquid QPF equivalent? 1" liquid equivalent. Looks like a typical SN-PL-ZR-RN progression. ZR is more dominant than the other p-types on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 1" liquid equivalent. Looks like a typical SN-PL-ZR-RN progression. ZR is more dominant than the other p-types on this run. Thanks! Colder look is somewhat novel so I won't get too excited at this point. Plus, climo is definitely working against us although it's not impossible to do snow/ice this late in the season (March 23, 2011, April 3-5, 2003 as some recent-ish examples). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Thanks! Colder look is somewhat novel so I won't get too excited at this point. Plus, climo is definitely working against us although it's not impossible to do snow/ice this late in the season (March 23, 2011, April 3-5, 2003 as some recent-ish examples). Throw in April 2013. That was mostly ZR IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Nice agreement on placement of the snow in S Minnesota on all 3 global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 No no no no no...give it all to Saukville. He loves snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Nice agreement on placement of the snow in S Minnesota on all 3 global models. Yeah, remarkable agreement being 4 days out. 18z GFS bumped the snow a bit north, but no major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I'm following this one like a: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 18z GFS is a lot of cold rain here. Stays in the 30s with a ripping NE wind the whole time. Total snowfall EURO is favoring areas a bit farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Nice around 1" ice storm on the last 2 GFS runs here... Still too far out for any details, but this looks like a real ice storm setup for somebody in the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GGEM blasts from Saukville to Fond du Lac, WI areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 EURO a big hit for Iowa, southern WI, northern IL, lower MI this run. South and colder this run. Storms starts in 90 hours. Holy Toledo! 30" for Milwaukee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 If models still showing a big storm on Monday, we've got a big dog coming I think. 20-21" here. Temps are cold underneath too. 20s, even during the day and well into IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 EURO a big hit for Iowa, southern WI, northern IL, lower MI this run. South and colder this run. Storms starts in 90 hours. Holy Toledo! 30" for Milwaukee! Holy smokes, LOL. I agree that it most likely will be a big dog. Only in 2016 would the only "big dog" be in spring. Here's the entire CONUS for anyone who lives outside of the region posted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The mother of all ice storms here, temps 29-30 with 2" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Woah ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 00Z MAR20 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 22-MAR -1.4 -7.2 1017 62 87 0.00 541 528 TUE 18Z 22-MAR 3.0 -3.3 1012 65 99 0.01 544 535 WED 00Z 23-MAR 3.8 0.9 1006 78 91 0.02 546 541 WED 06Z 23-MAR 3.7 0.7 1007 90 75 0.01 547 542 WED 12Z 23-MAR 0.1 -2.9 1013 88 71 0.01 548 537 WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.7 -5.3 1017 58 62 0.00 551 537 THU 00Z 24-MAR 0.5 -5.5 1019 68 69 0.00 552 537 THU 06Z 24-MAR -0.5 -6.1 1020 59 89 0.04 553 537 THU 12Z 24-MAR -2.6 -7.7 1020 62 100 0.03 553 537 THU 18Z 24-MAR -4.0 -6.4 1017 81 99 0.36 553 540 FRI 00Z 25-MAR -3.9 -2.4 1010 87 99 0.52 552 544 FRI 06Z 25-MAR -2.0 4.1 1000 87 79 0.67 547 547 FRI 12Z 25-MAR -4.2 -0.6 1002 85 79 0.17 540 538 FRI 18Z 25-MAR -1.4 -8.2 1009 64 74 0.01 541 534 SAT 00Z 26-MAR -2.0 -9.4 1018 70 21 0.00 545 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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