March 19/20 Potential Winter Event

[AlaskaETC]

Still a fairly good EPS run I think withh a good cluster. Not sure if "only" getting .6 inches of QPF can be considered horrible in mid March.

[showmethesnow]

EPS keeps some hope alive.. a step down from 12z but not too bad considering the operational. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at this it doesn't instill much confidence. Part of what made earlier runs of the Euro work for our region, besides the track, was the fact the low was beginning its intensification as it was approaching our area with most lows being depicted at sub 999 mb when it reached this latitude. Looking at the lows now show that most have yet to even reach 1000 mb by this point. Without a more dynamic system we are probably going to struggle mightily with the temps throughout the lower levels of the atmosphere. Here's hoping this is just a glitch run because I don't think this would work too well for us as depicted.

 

Edit: Did notice that the mean pressure did drop from earlier runs but think that is probably related more so to the better clustering of the lows as we approach game time.

[CAPE]

EPS keeps some hope alive.. a step down from 12z but not too bad considering the operational. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at the EPS and the individual members, I would say it is supportive of the latest op run. The deeper low, bigger storm idea is all but gone. As for the snowfall mean, its generally a couple inches. At this range that probably should be a pretty close match to the op, and it is.

[CAPE]

My call at this juncture for actual snow observed on the ground at one time, is 1-4", with the higher amounts at elevation(Parrs) or any location outside of the cities where heavier snow falls at night. Timing will be important, as this does not appear to be a very strong, dynamic system for our area.

[mappy]

lol euro

[psuhoffman]

Looking at this it doesn't instill much confidence. Part of what made earlier runs of the Euro work for our region, besides the track, was the fact the low was beginning its intensification as it was approaching our area with most lows being depicted at sub 999 mb when it reached this latitude. Looking at the lows now show that most have yet to even reach 1000 mb by this point. Without a more dynamic system we are probably going to struggle mightily with the temps throughout the lower levels of the atmosphere. Here's hoping this is just a glitch run because I don't think this would work too well for us as depicted.

Edit: Did notice that the mean pressure did drop from earlier runs but think that is probably related more so to the better clustering of the lows as we approach game time.

bingo. People grasping for straws but the eps isn't one. You nailed it the problem isn't a shift in track it's simply a trend on all guidance towards a weaker slower to develop system. This isn't January where his could shift down incrementally to a moderate snowfall. What made it work was the thump snow idea on the euro for like 4 consecutive runs and 5/6. 1"qpf might have been 8" but that doesn't mean .6 is 5". 18 hours of light to moderate precip mostly during the day late March is going to fail. Ian pointed out the euro sometimes fails with these northern branch type transfer redevelopment systems. I don't think it's because the gfs is better at them just that they are tricky and so the chances the euro craps out are higher. Every once in a while one bombs out faster then guidance but it sure seems over the years with systems transferring and developing near our latitude models often bomb them out too quickly. Since the system is moving every hour slower in wrapping up shifts the heavy precip northeast. Plus the track shifts east because amplification pulls the low poleward of its eastward trajectory so less amp means more east movement. I said a few days ago I am always nervous when the Ccb is supposed to explode right over us. No wiggle room if it's slower to bomb.

[showmethesnow]

bingo. People grasping for straws but the eps isn't one. You nailed it the problem isn't a shift in track it's simply a trend on all guidance towards a weaker slower to develop system. This isn't January where his could shift down incrementally to a moderate snowfall. What made it work was the thump snow idea on the euro for like 4 consecutive runs and 5/6. 1"qpf might have been 8" but that doesn't mean .6 is 5". 18 hours of light to moderate precip mostly during the day late March is going to fail. Ian pointed out the euro sometimes fails with these northern branch type transfer redevelopment systems. I don't think it's because the gfs is better at them just that they are tricky and so the chances the euro craps out are higher. Every once in a while one bombs out faster then guidance but it sure seems over the years with systems transferring and developing near our latitude models often bomb them out too quickly. Since the system is moving every hour slower in wrapping up shifts the heavy precip northeast. Plus the track shifts east because amplification pulls the low poleward of its eastward trajectory so less amp means more east movement. I said a few days ago I am always nervous when the Ccb is supposed to explode right over us. No wiggle room if it's slower to bomb.

Another potential problem is that with the winds being pulled off the ocean as the low moves up, I would not be surprised to see a warm layer embedded within the lower levels that a weaker less dynamic low will not be able to mix out. So the models may say snow but in reality you are talking rain.

[psuhoffman]

Latest gfs looks cold....never goes above freezing up this way on Sunday.Looks like .6-.7 qpf ..I'll take it . I wonder if the UK will score a win since it has been on the western side of the tracks for days and still is with its latest run. Can't seem to find uk total qpf for the region..anyone?

only goes to 72 hours but about .5 qpf through then with maybe another .1-.2 after based on position of the low. We might do "ok" up here with some elevation help. If we get a decent period of moderate snow I could see a few inches but even up here I'm pretty skeptical of .6 qpf over 12-18 hours during the day with marginal temps really amounting to much otg.

[psuhoffman]

Another potential problem is that with the winds being pulled off the ocean as the low moves up, I would not be surprised to see a warm layer embedded within the lower levels that a weaker less dynamic low will not be able to mix out. So the models may say snow but in reality you are talking rain.

in summary weak sucks!!! You can skip the above posts now.

[Interstate]

If I am reading the gfs right, this becomes at Saturday day to Sunday early morning storm. Doesn't hang around for the daylight hours on Sunday.

[Ralph Wiggum]

bingo. People grasping for straws but the eps isn't one. You nailed it the problem isn't a shift in track it's simply a trend on all guidance towards a weaker slower to develop system. This isn't January where his could shift down incrementally to a moderate snowfall. What made it work was the thump snow idea on the euro for like 4 consecutive runs and 5/6. 1"qpf might have been 8" but that doesn't mean .6 is 5". 18 hours of light to moderate precip mostly during the day late March is going to fail. Ian pointed out the euro sometimes fails with these northern branch type transfer redevelopment systems. I don't think it's because the gfs is better at them just that they are tricky and so the chances the euro craps out are higher. Every once in a while one bombs out faster then guidance but it sure seems over the years with systems transferring and developing near our latitude models often bomb them out too quickly. Since the system is moving every hour slower in wrapping up shifts the heavy precip northeast. Plus the track shifts east because amplification pulls the low poleward of its eastward trajectory so less amp means more east movement. I said a few days ago I am always nervous when the Ccb is supposed to explode right over us. No wiggle room if it's slower to bomb.

The mechanism which was causing the bomb solutions on some of the models was the energy N of the GL which was diving into the trof and helping to amplify it. That energy now travels almost due East along or just N of the Canadian border and acts more like a kicker. We should celebrate the GFS' solid handling of this N Stream feature (where it usually excels) IF this progressive system does in fact play out as the GFS has been suggesting consistently for days.

Sent from my XT603 using Tapatalk 2

[EastCoast NPZ]

GFS is the king.

[mitchnick]

GFS is the king.

This ain't over yet (though the writing is appearing on the wall), but I have been saying for months how well the gfs has been doing and how snow happy the Euro has incorrectly been. This is now looking like another example. Reputations are slow to die in this world, but it's about time imho for the Euro's reputation over the gfs to take the hit.

[WinterWxLuvr]

This thing is mega fast compared to what we were looking at just a day or so ago.

 

I think, based upon the latest gfs and nam, that we will be in steady precip out here by around daybreak tomorrow.

[CAPE]

This thing is mega fast compared to what we were looking at just a day or so ago.

 

I think, based upon the latest gfs and nam, that we will be in steady precip out here by around daybreak tomorrow.

I might get lucky here and have most of whatever falls occur late tomorrow and overnight. Might also get in on the deform band as the low gets more organized offshore. Not expecting much either way.

[CAPE]

This ain't over yet (though the writing is appearing on the wall), but I have been saying for months how well the gfs has been doing and how snow happy the Euro has incorrectly been. This is now looking like another example. Reputations are slow to die in this world, but it's about time imho for the Euro's reputation over the gfs to take the hit.

Sure has been. Especially for the southern part of our area. Just ask the folks from Salisbury about their ratio of Euro digital snow to actual snow. Probably 10:1 lol.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Was the Euro the first #1 seed to fall?

[ers-wxman1]

This ain't over yet (though the writing is appearing on the wall), but I have been saying for months how well the gfs has been doing and how snow happy the Euro has incorrectly been. This is now looking like another example. Reputations are slow to die in this world, but it's about time imho for the Euro's reputation over the gfs to take the hit.

That is exactly right and yet the euro lovers will always come up with a reason why it handled this system better than the GFS. Not only this system but every system. It's simply not true. Nearly every storm this year the euro has over amped only to trim back. It was also the model that was too dry for the big blizzard and nearly lost it for one run.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Was the Euro the first #1 seed to fall?

 

It'll be in the NIT next season.

[EastCoast NPZ]

This thing is mega fast compared to what we were looking at just a day or so ago.

 

I think, based upon the latest gfs and nam, that we will be in steady precip out here by around daybreak tomorrow.

 

Couldn't be timed worse, then.

[psuhoffman]

The mechanism which was causing the bomb solutions on some of the models was the energy N of the GL which was diving into the trof and helping to amplify it. That energy now travels almost due East along or just N of the Canadian border and acts more like a kicker. We should celebrate the GFS' solid handling of this N Stream feature (where it usually excels) IF this progressive system does in fact play out as the GFS has been suggesting consistently for days.

Sent from my XT603 using Tapatalk 2

there are the differences you mentioned but also the gfs was always putting more into this wave Saturday and getting the storm way out in feont of the h5 trough. Disconnected. The latest run still shows that, you can see the upper energy come through Sunday with snow showers around but the storm is long gone. Nothing there for it to bomb. The euro was shearing that first wave out then really allowing the upper every to bomb out a storm Sunday with nothing in the way. The euro has now moved towards a more disjointed system with energy being split. All that is not good. Complicated doesn't work for us.

[ers-wxman1]

06z 4km NAM is similar to its last run with 0.5-1.0 liquid and 2-4"/higher near the BR. It's rain much of Saturday with change to snow at night which is good but we lose the bulk of the precip and temps are not that cold.

[psuhoffman]

This thing is mega fast compared to what we were looking at just a day or so ago.

I think, based upon the latest gfs and nam, that we will be in steady precip out here by around daybreak tomorrow.

that's part of th problem though. That front runner northern stream feature is out ahead of the upper low. It can't develop. All it's doing is spreading the energy out and running interference on a storm bombing Sunday when the upper every is there to support it.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Couldn't be timed worse, then.

Yeah, at first it looked like it was going to be an "after dark" system on the gfs, and the euro was slower with an early morning to Sun eve. solution.  Now it is much faster even on the gfs.

[psuhoffman]

That is exactly right and yet the euro lovers will always come up with a reason why it handled this system better than the GFS. Not only this system but every system. It's simply not true. Nearly every storm this year the euro has over amped only to trim back. It was also the model that was too dry for the big blizzard and nearly lost it for one run.

I'm somewhere in between. People go too far with hugging the euro but for the last 6 weeks it was killing the gfs in general storm tracks around here inside day 5. It was the first to lock in to a cutter track on like 4 straight storms while the gfs teased us day 4-5. At the same time the gfs was better with the blizzard and the euro has had plenty of fails the last few years. But at the same time people will now run to the gfs next time and it's still prone to totally crap out more often then the euro inside day 5. It's fitting that after locking in on cutter after cutter the euro fails when it is finally saying yes instead of no.

[Warm Nose]

06z 4km NAM is similar to its last run with 0.5-1.0 liquid and 2-4"/higher near the BR. It's rain much of Saturday with change to snow at night which is good but we lose the bulk of the precip and temps are not that cold.

 

4k NAM snow map for giggles

 

[ers-wxman1]

I'm somewhere in between. People go too far with hugging the euro but for the last 6 weeks it was killing the gfs in general storm tracks around here inside day 5. It was the first to lock in to a cutter track on like 4 straight storms while the gfs teased us day 4-5. At the same time the gfs was better with the blizzard and the euro has had plenty of fails the last few years. But at the same time people will now run to the gfs next time and it's still prone to totally crap out more often then the euro inside day 5. It's fitting that after locking in on cutter after cutter the euro fails when it is finally saying yes instead of no.

Good points.

Apart from the blizzard there have been few storms that either model has locked into perfectly starting at day 5, keeping its solution without major change. Many times this winter the euro showed a significant winter storm only to de amplify. GFS has done that as well but in my opinion it's done a pretty decent job this winter overall. Better than past years. I've always been a believer that there are pros and cons to every model.

[ers-wxman1]

4k NAM snow map for giggles

Funny thing with this map is it's a complete shut out for New England. Accuweather was all over this being a major storm for New England and even had potential for NYC, NJ, and Long Island. If current guidance is correct, there will be a lot of dissapointed people north of us :-)

[high risk]

   9z SREF still very wet for NYC up through New England.     Not convinced that the details from the 6z model suite of the fast, OTS idea are correct.

 

 

Funny thing with this map is it's a complete shut out for New England. Accuweather was all over this being a major storm for New England and even had potential for NYC, NJ, and Long Island. If current guidance is correct, there will be a lot of dissapointed people north of us :-)

[ers-wxman1]

9z SREF still very wet for NYC up through New England. Not convinced that the details from the 6z model suite of the fast, OTS idea are correct.

The idea of a 977 low off ACK and a 966 off ME that was shown by the euro looks to be out at this point. They were talking blizzard.