gymengineer Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Yeah it's definitely marginal tempwise even with rates. And temps are pretty uniform so it doesn't necessarily look like a case where DCA is 35 and I'm 33. 35s all over at 18z.. tho really that's about what last night showed. Last night was maybe a hair cooler at 12z and 0z but 18z was very similar. My impression from the morning posts was that last night's run delayed the storm, so the end of the storm was well after sunset. The evening stuff could definitely accumulate well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 April 1st 1997 was something else in the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I think it's easy to downplay on air because we are on the heels of multiple days in the 70's and it has felt more like mid spring than anything else. This march has not felt the same as the last 2. This storm is a combo of a return to winter temps and possible snow at the same time. No lead up cold streak makes it hard to go all in until it's locked, loaded, and imminent. With that being said, if the 0z runs start agreeing then downplaying is a bit foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 April 1st 1997 was something else in the NE I was living in the Hudson Valley of NY at the time, we had about 18 inches of paste. Our town had no power for 4-6 days. It was pretty awesome, especially since I was in the 7th grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 More analysis about temps and March storms: One of the questions I had after the snow early this month was why it didn't accumulate on roads at all in the areas that went under 32F overnight and had 2" accumulation on non-paved surfaces. I looked at the days leading up to 3/25/13 which were colder in daytime highs but not as cold for overnight lows. Maybe pavement temp spikes from the high temp hours was the main reason? But, there was also a big disparity in liquid equivalents. 3/25/13 was much more liquid overnight than 3/3-4/16 (~400% more). Fluffy high ratio snow doesn't cut it to coat the roads after a warmish-spell in March. So, it's kind of a complicated combination of factors to determine whether snow will stick on roads even overnight. It's a fun puzzle to put together. I want to actually take a stab at it for this storm, so I think I'm going to make a "road stick" forecast if the models do converge on a high-liquid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I was living in the Hudson Valley of NY at the time, we had about 18 inches of paste. Our town had no power for 4-6 days. It was pretty awesome, especially since I was in the 7th grade. My former boss was working at NWS Taunton and said he was driving home from a shift and it was snowing so hard it was scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 SREFS look about the same precip wise but the location would suggest a slower storm and one closer to the coast. But those maps are hard to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 My impression from the morning posts was that last night's run delayed the storm, so the end of the storm was well after sunset. The evening stuff could definitely accumulate well. yeah some slight timing differences. this run more like yesterday with higher qpf before sunrise and lower after sunset whereas last night was lower before sunrise and more after sunset.. but not really a lot after sunset. In general the vast bulk comes between 12z and 0z for the corridor. think I'd rather try to get a little laid down before sunrise than waiting for the end of storm luck anyway though. we could use another degree or two midday for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The Mid Atlantic will be absolutely destroyed by this snowstorm. How do I know? I am in Austin Texas. I'm out of town, so this snowstorm WILL verify. I'll be cheering you on with all my heart!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The Mid Atlantic will be absolutely destroyed by this snowstorm. How do I know? I am in Austin Texas. I'm out of town, so this snowstorm WILL verify. I'll be cheering you on with all my heart!!!! We'll be Jeb walkin and smarmin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 We'll be Jeb walkin and smarmin You'll finally be all dug out of that snow by late May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 00z NAM has good precip out ahead of the low but it's all rain with warmer BL. Coastal transfer is progressive and off the coast. Looks like a change to snow overnight Saturday per the 12km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 00z NAM has good precip out ahead of the low but it's all rain with warmer BL. Coastal transfer is progressive and off the coast. Looks like a change to snow overnight Saturday per the 12km NAM. 00z 4km NAM looks a tad better IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 one thing I wonder about is that this is more of a northern stream look. doesn't align till late etc.. instead of something crusing at us from the southern US into a block. these are the types the GFS can win on sometimes. then again I feel like I say the GFS might win a lot and it never does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 one thing I wonder about is that this is more of a northern stream look. doesn't align till late etc.. instead of something crusing at us from the southern US into a block. these are the types the GFS can win on sometimes. then again I feel like I say the GFS might win a lot and it never does.Don't overthink this. You always say the Euro is the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Remember when the GFS would be running right now... Good thing for the NCAA tournament. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 00z 4km NAM looks a tad better IMO I would agree. Still starts as rain with changeover to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 4km NAM is 0.75-1" liquid and 1-3/2-4" snow, higher over the blue ridge/upslope favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Don't overthink this. You always say the Euro is the king. The GFS is a national embarrassment. But I don't want to be DT either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The GFS is a national embarrassment. But I don't want to be DT either. Lets wait and see what the model suite has to say first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The GFS is a national embarrassment. But I don't want to be DT either. Imagine if the euro and ukie folded to the GFS lol. I doubt it but if it did, would be quite a spectacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The GFS is a national embarrassment. But I don't want to be DT either.At least you would be humping something . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Imagine if the euro and ukie folded to the GFS lol. I doubt it but if it did, would be quite a spectacle then we just move on to track the next threat March 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 then we just move on to track the next threat March 30 and forget it ever caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 then we just move on to track the next threat March 30 #yearwithoutasummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 #yearwithoutasummer I thought that was 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 00z GFS just getting underway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I guess the GFS doesn't follow DST? I've been out of the tracking game for a bit. I feel bad for my girlfriend and her mom. They are supposed to be on a plane at Dulles at 5am Monday morning and they're freaking out about the potential snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Imagine if the euro and ukie folded to the GFS lol. I doubt it but if it did, would be quite a spectacle The para euro has been deadly at hr72. We're just about there. I've never seen anything like it. I'm thinking the only glaring issue is surface temps and not precip amounts or even precip type but rain will come easier if the euro is just a couple degrees too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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