Ji Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 euro control is a crushing storm for the N and W burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 18z gefs definitely more ambitious in the snow dept vs 12z. It's really hard to doubt the euro/eps on this one. 3 steady runs of the op with steady increase of ens support. 1-2 more in a row and it's probably a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 18z gefs definitely more ambitious in the snow dept vs 12z. It's really hard to doubt the euro/eps on this one. 3 steady runs of the op with steady increase of ens support. 1-2 more in a row and it's probably a lock. Mean for DCA? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'd just toss the GFS...It's not all that good with east coast snowstorms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 speaking of solution, how about that 2 foot snowstorm on March 30th on the 18z gfs Bring it, if it doesn't require a -AO that melts all the arctic sea ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Since no one took the bait I'll post this for future reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Since no one took the bait I'll post this for future reference. It is an interesting looking map :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Since no one took the bait I'll post this for future reference. Bullish. They obviously like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It is an interesting looking map :-) All the locals are being uber bearish so far it seems. I guess it makes sense given this area and given late March.. but Euro also tends to lock in around here so it seems it should be given at least a little weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Bullish. They obviously like the Euro. I disregard any and all data that doesn't pummel NE Md and obliterates Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Well aside from the obvious 3/6/13 debacle in the back of our minds, perhaps another storm to look at with regard to surface temps and accumulations would be 3/14/99: IAD recorded 0.99" liquid for 4" of snow. Temps bounced between 33 and 34 F during the entire day once precip started except for the first two hours of the storm (36 F at the start). There were a couple of periods of SN+ reported. Snow started at around 8 am. There was 1.4" more snow the next morning but after a break in precip. DCA reported minimal accumulation, and was of course warmer. I was focusing on IAD since the temps were in that 33/34 F zone. In contrast, in both the 3/24/90 and 3/25/14 daytime snow events, the temp fell below 32 F at IAD during a part of the snow (in the case of 3/25/14, all the way down to 28 F). As a result, there was a much better ratio of liquid to snowboard accumulation--- 0.31" liquid for 3.0" of snow on 3/24/90 and 0.41" liquid for 3.8" of snow on 3/25/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I disregard any and all data that doesn't pummel NE Md and obliterates Ocean City OC may very well be wiped off the map if the Euro verifies. Its a mighty storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 All the locals are being uber bearish so far it seems. I guess it makes sense given this area and given late March.. but Euro also tends to lock in around here so it seems it should be given at least a little weight. TV Mets are downplaying it big time. I think that is the wrong approach. Timing will be everything. We definitely need a night time start for this. Some may be banking on warm ground but in looking at the maps I see evidence of a classic winter storm. Cold high to the north funneling in drier and colder dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 TV Mets are downplaying it big time. I think that is the wrong approach. Timing will be everything. We definitely need a night time start for this. Some may be banking on warm ground but in looking at the maps I see evidence of a classic winter storm. Cold high to the north funneling in drier and colder dew points. Think it's partly banking on the situation being even if we get thumped the roads won't be super awful.. which is probably right in general. Though if we manage 1-2"/hr rates for a while as the Euro suggests is possible at least here and there... we'll see. I mean it's not an easy one -- they rarely are! -- but still. Doug K said it would be like the snow event early month. That's certainly not what the Euro shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 If the GFS was in the Euro camp I think you'd see more bullish forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 If the GFS was in the Euro camp I think you'd see more bullish forecasts. Or maybe the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The 3/25/13 snow seems a similar setup IMO. Not necessarily storm wise but temp and timing wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 If the GFS was in the Euro camp I think you'd see more bullish forecasts. RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I'll be lucky to stay up for the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Think it's partly banking on the situation being even if we get thumped the roads won't be super awful.. which is probably right in general. Though if we manage 1-2"/hr rates for a while as the Euro suggests is possible at least here and there... we'll see. I mean it's not an easy one -- they rarely are! -- but still. Doug K said it would be like the snow event early month. That's certainly not what the Euro shows... I think if the temps from the 0Z Euro run verified, it would definitely be a legit snowstorm. The 12Z Euro run-- let's just hope it's a tad warm at the surface. I really never want to see a "35F" forecast for DCA in the middle of a snowstorm. Even with the best rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Think it's partly banking on the situation being even if we get thumped the roads won't be super awful.. which is probably right in general. Though if we manage 1-2"/hr rates for a while as the Euro suggests is possible at least here and there... we'll see. I mean it's not an easy one -- they rarely are! -- but still. Doug K said it would be like the snow event early month. That's certainly not what the Euro shows... They are all likely going with the GFS as the most likely scenario but are mentioning in so many words that it could be worse. Euro likely has a better handle especially at H5. Another euro lock and load run tonight and it's pretty well settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 If it were reversed I wonder if there would be more hype. I mean we know the Euro is king but that may not be the consensus with all mets. I guess if both models are not on board the event is downplayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 If it were reversed I wonder if there would be more hype. I mean we know the Euro is king but that may not be the consensus with all mets. I guess if both models are not on board the event is downplayed. It sounds like the temps on the Euro are borderline near the cities. They might be taking that into account as well. It would be nice to see it get more support from the other models. Maybe the Ukie will come through tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It sounds like the temps on the Euro are borderline near the cities. They might be taking that into account as well. It would be nice to see it get more support from the other models. Maybe the Ukie will come through tonight. The 12z UKIE looked impressive from what I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I'll be lucky to stay up for the NAMDon't forget to put on your Depends before bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 speaking of solution, how about that 2 foot snowstorm on March 30th on the 18z gfswrong thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It sounds like the temps on the Euro are borderline near the cities. They might be taking that into account as well. It would be nice to see it get more support from the other models. Maybe the Ukie will come through tonight. Um, the UKIE has been coming through with the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I think if the temps from the 0Z Euro run verified, it would definitely be a legit snowstorm. The 12Z Euro run-- let's just hope it's a tad warm at the surface. I really never want to see a "35F" forecast for DCA in the middle of a snowstorm. Even with the best rates. Yeah it's definitely marginal tempwise even with rates. And temps are pretty uniform so it doesn't necessarily look like a case where DCA is 35 and I'm 33. 35s all over at 18z.. tho really that's about what last night showed. Last night was maybe a hair cooler at 12z and 0z but 18z was very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 They are all likely going with the GFS as the most likely scenario but are mentioning in so many words that it could be worse. Euro likely has a better handle especially at H5. Another euro lock and load run tonight and it's pretty well settled. Yeah if Euro still shows similar tonight it's probably locked in for the most part. Even 3 runs in a row with a wetter product today argues for that but it also over qpfs then backs down a bit. Rates are huge obviously. Any time we're not getting rates it's going to be a meltfest unless we magically lose 3-5 degrees, which I still have to think will be somewhat tough as 35 is already close to the bottom for a midday temp so late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Um, the UKIE has been coming through with the EURO That's good to hear. It's hard to tell from the data on meteocentre. At 72 hours, the UKIE has 0.4" in DC with surface temps above freezing the whole time and 850s very close. If that's what local mets are going by, I can understand why they'd be cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.