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March 19/20 Potential Winter Event


stormtracker

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NAM is very mixed-baggy.  I-95 is Rain to SN+ to Rain to SN- to Rain...

This all depends on rates, not how far northwest you are. Plenty of sub 20f dewpoints in PA for the storm to make it's own cold air.

 

And we know it will wetbulb down into the 32-34f range people can stop saying it.

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Mount Holly's initial thoughts per their AFD...2-4 along and NW of I-95, 1-2 SE. Not jumping totally on the Euro idea just yet lol.

Maybe LWX doesn't have access to the Euro. :P

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Looks like another model showdown (can't remember who won the last time, lol) Wonder why so much disparity?

I think the main difference and a critical difference is the 500 pattern. Euro in particular has the trough going negative tilt to our south and west which allows the surface low to deepen rapidly and closer to the coast. GFS is more progressive with the trough and then goes neutral to negative tilt too Far East. This leaves a weaker surface low and it doesn't get its act together until it's well east of the MA.

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I think the main difference and a critical difference is the 500 pattern. Euro in particular has the trough going negative tilt to our south and west which allows the surface low to deepen rapidly and closer to the coast. GFS is more progressive with the trough and then goes neutral to negative tilt too Far East. This leaves a weaker surface low and it doesn't get its act together until it's well east of the MA.

I think I remember the GFS showing a similar solution a few days ago.

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