Ian Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Only have to go back 2 years for a storm of this potential magnitude at this time of year. 3/16/14, 9.1" IMBY. Around here. This is a bigger potential storm overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Storm Vista snow map from Euro is just 1-2 for DCA, with more NW/NE - and a lot more NE. At least that's what CWG posted. Temps aren't perfect but I think that StormVista map is conservative.. Obviously Weatherbell's snow map is also extreme, probably a compromise between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Storm Vista snow map from Euro is just 1-2 for DCA, with more NW/NE - and a lot more NE. At least that's what CWG posted. MDA maps that were posted above looked good to me as a compromise between WB and SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Worse run than 00UT in my back yard. 1000-500 hPa thicknesses of ~543 Sunday morning versus ~540 in the previous run. Surface temperatures of 34 at 7PM versus 33 in previous run. 850 T of -1 to -3C Sunday morning versus -4 to -6C in previous run. The good news: Total precipitation is up from ~1" to ~1.4" and it starts a few hours earlier (4 AM versus 7AM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Worse run than 00UT in my back yard. 1000-500 hPa thicknesses of ~543 Sunday morning versus ~540 in the previous run. Surface temperatures of 34 at 7PM versus 33 in previous run. 850 T of -1 to -3C Sunday morning versus -4 to -6C in previous run. The good news: Total precipitation is up from ~1" to ~1.4" and it starts a few hours earlier (4 AM versus 7AM) Nit picking too much this far out. Won't disagree that every integer matters this time of the year more than ever, but you might want to save that kind of analysis for inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Around here. This is a bigger potential storm overall. I'm wondering if it will be the biggest March storm since 1993 for some of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'm excited about this. Of course in DC proper we'll probably struggle to put up any respectable numbers but any accumulating snow will be fun after all this warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Temps aren't perfect but I think that StormVista map is conservative.. Obviously Weatherbell's snow map is also extreme, probably a compromise between the two.The SV map is wrong. Not really sure why they used it. It gives us 0 accum from 12z to 18z with .5-.6 during the period because temps are a little above freezing. Think it won't show accum if sfc is above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'm wondering if it will be the biggest March storm since 1993 for some of us yeah seems to have potential to be the biggest late season storm since that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Don't forget NE Maryland Yes but is it AMPED? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'm wondering if it will be the biggest March storm since 1993 for some of us I wasn't here for the Superstorm in 1993, but in the time since I moved to the area (in 2001), the St. Pat's event in 2014 is easily the biggest March snowstorm for me. Where I'm at, we got 8" from that...almost all of it fell overnight (16th into the 17th)...and it was pretty cold. Temps remained right at or just below freezing all day on St. Patrick's Day even after the snow stopped in the early morning. This upcoming event, temperatures look more marginal, but at the same time it appears it would be a more intense system and more precip. So there is that. I wouldn't mind having it top my March snow list, if it can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Yes but is it AMPED? Not sure of that, but perhaps Randytastic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12z EPS are very impressive. Mean is 4-5" at DC and BWI. 6" Winchester, 7" Carroll County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Somebody post the "it's happening" gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'm wondering if it will be the biggest March storm since 1993 for some of us Is there any evidence of it bombing like that storm did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 How am I seeing this on March 17 when it is like 70 degrees outside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ensembles seem to favor west of the op in clustering. Decent but not quite as good around the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Don't forget NE MarylandI forgot about that NE MD DEMOLITION ZONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Here is the cluster for the Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 How am I seeing this on March 17 when it is like 70 degrees outside? Because winter really wants to have that final kiss goodbye before astronomical spring begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Definitely looking like an evaporative coastal jumper gaining latitude. 29.75 into a 30.40 = boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Here is the cluster for the Ensembles Seems like it's hard to go wrong with that clustering. First call: DC and close in suburbs 2-5 inches, mostly grass. Favored areas N/W 4-8 inches with a better chance at slickening up the roads. I know it's out of our forum but NYC and its N/W burbs look to be the best spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Heres the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Heres the mean Looks pretty realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Looks pretty realistic. About 60 to 70% of that may accumulate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 18z NAM kinda goes along with the faster GFS idea. has heavy *something* moving in here late Saturday afternoon with the initial low tracking east through the Ohio Valley. At f60 (where it is now), it is in the process of transferring to the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Seems like it's hard to go wrong with that clustering. First call: DC and close in suburbs 2-5 inches, mostly grass. Favored areas N/W 4-8 inches with a better chance at slickening up the roads. I know it's out of our forum but NYC and its N/W burbs look to be the best spot for this one. The mean is fine but the clustering might be problematic. We don't really want this to come at all N&W in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 18z NAM kinda goes along with the faster GFS idea. has heavy *something* moving in here late Saturday afternoon with the initial low tracking east through the Ohio Valley. At f60 (where it is now), it is in the process of transferring to the coastal 18z NAM P-TYPE suggests its snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 There's actually been several mid-to-late March *daytime* snowstorms in the recent memory to have a bank to compare to. Ones that stuck fine on grass even in the city: 3/24/90, 3/25/14 Ones that stuck elsewhere but not well in the city: 3/14/99, 3/30/03 The two that stuck didn't rely on insane rates; snow was moderate during much of the event. But they were both cold (near freezing even at DCA during the coldest part). I guess we could include 3/30/14 but that was such a weird event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Definitely looking like an evaporative coastal jumper gaining latitude. 29.75 into a 30.40 = boom. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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