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March 19/20 Potential Winter Event


stormtracker

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Remember when the Euro gave us 8-12"?

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You know I was thinking about the EPS, and specifically the individual members for the runs where the op looked "good" for this area. There were always a significant number of members showing this event panning out like this- too little, too late for us and hitting SNE...other than maybe that really good run just before the Doc said NO..

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You know I was thinking about the EPS, and specifically the individual members for the runs where the op looked "good" for this area. There were always a significant number of members showing this event panning out like this- too little, too late for us and hitting SNE...other than maybe that really good run just before the Doc said NO..

Regardless of what those "in the know" say about ensembles, the fact is that they normally follow the operational's lead and if it's wrong, their mean usually is as well. If there is anything we can take from this winter, it's that you really want the GFS and Euro united before feeling truly confident.
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Remember when the Euro gave us 8-12"?

Please ensure we don't forget this when the next event comes into view. I was a little Euro happy and had blinders on for everything else. Should and will know better

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Euro only gave us that much snow in pretend snowmap world. It was wrong those few runs but we weren't getting 8-12" with temps bottoming int he mid-30s during the heaviest precip.

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Euro only gave us that much snow in pretend snowmap world. It was wrong those few runs but we weren't getting 8-12" with temps bottoming int he mid-30s during the heaviest precip.

Snow maps should never be taken verbatim, and certainly not in the Spring. As far as temps, when the Euro had those good runs, it had surface temps colder, 31-33 outside of the cities, and even 28-29 in N MD, but that was based on the storm evolving as advertised, which it never came close to in reality.

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