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March 19/20 Potential Winter Event

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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arlwx

arlwx

Posted
Posted

Again, snow for the mountains.

 

The latest from LWX:

 

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE

VA/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE MOUTNAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW

IS EXPECTED AND WILL MAINLY IMPACT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET.

(snip)

 RAIN/SNOW WILL  MOVE INTO VA/POTOMAC HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IS

EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING TO THE BLUE RDG...AND

A WET SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AS PRECIP MOVES EASTWARD. AS TEMPS INCREASE SATURDAY...PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINITIES WITH THIS FORECAST AS TEMPS WILL BE

MARGINAL AND HEAVIER BANDS MAY RESULT IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY. THIS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 40 DEG AND ANY ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES.

 

TEMPS IN THE BALT-WASH CORRIDOR XPCTD TO REACH THE M40S THIS AFTN.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS MID-LEVELS DRY OUT

FURTHER. THERE COULD BE EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER

SOUTHWEST AREAS NEAR KCHO. PRECIP IF ANY WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BE

LIQUID IN MOST AREAS WITH A RA/SN MIX OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

VERY LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IF ANY IS EXPECTED SUN.

SUN NIGHT...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE

SUN-SUN EVENING WILL MOVE EAST CROSSING THE AREA AROUND 06Z MON.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AREAWIDE AS STRONG COOLING ALOFT AND

STEEPENING LAPSE RATES RESULT IN A QUICK BURST OF SNOW. LESS THAN

AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE MTNS WITH

ANOTHER INCH OR TWO LIKELY OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. PRECIP WILL

BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 06Z MON AND SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY 12Z

MON IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.

 

 

 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

I would be surprised if any place east of the mountains sees more than 2" on the ground through tomorrow AM. Best chances during the day today in places like Westminster, and wherever any heavier bands set up later this afternoon and evening.. Definite east trend in the models with the developing coastal low...but areas of eastern MD towards the coast of DE and into SNJ could see a couple inches from that. Timing would be late tonight into Sunday night, and colder air will be filtering in, which would help accumulation(at night). Latest Euro, as well as meso models ( NAM, RAP) hinting at this.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

The models were all awful with this. Before we praise the gfs too much, yes it was correct with the Sunday system being east but perhaps for the wrong reason. 36 hours ago none of the guidance had this wave today as anything more then some sprinkles as the cold reinforced to set up the storm Sunday. Suddenly yesterday all the guidance picked up on this frontrunner ejecting and that really killed the Sunday storm. Too much competition for energy. This wave has no upper support so it can't really produce the kind of dynamic cooling we needed plus worst timing possible and this originally was going to provide another shot of cold now the precip comes in before that so its more marginal. Plus this is just waa driven and us washing out as the wave outruns its support and crashes into the ridging. It just mucked the timing up hat we needed badly. The guidance was all a mess on this IMO. I will give the gfs this it was the best of a sorry lot. It never fell for the Sunday system, though I wonder if it was right for the wrong reasons there because it at first was shunting that east because it was way off on the h5 low over the lakes and it came around to the euro on that but that was as all models were picking up on the Saturday wave mucking things up. It did have hints of this Saturday thing a cycle or two before the foreign guidance though so it earns props for that. None of the models are resolving where to place the boundary that the heaviest qpf will set up along today as they bounce that around every run and were at game time so overall they all get an F on this one with maybe the gfs squeaking by with a d for at least not ever having th Sunday thing even though it messed up Saturday also.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

The models were all awful with this. Before we praise the gfs too much, yes it was correct with the Sunday system being east but perhaps for the wrong reason. 36 hours ago none of the guidance had this wave today as anything more then some sprinkles as the cold reinforced to set up the storm Sunday. Suddenly yesterday all the guidance picked up on this frontrunner ejecting and that really killed the Sunday storm. Too much competition for energy. This wave has no upper support so it can't really produce the kind of dynamic cooling we needed plus worst timing possible and this originally was going to provide another shot of cold now the precip comes in before that so its more marginal. Plus this is just waa driven and us washing out as the wave outruns its support and crashes into the ridging. It just mucked the timing up hat we needed badly. The guidance was all a mess on this IMO. I will give the gfs this it was the best of a sorry lot. It never fell for the Sunday system, though I wonder if it was right for the wrong reasons there because it at first was shunting that east because it was way off on the h5 low over the lakes and it came around to the euro on that but that was as all models were picking up on the Saturday wave mucking things up. It did have hints of this Saturday thing a cycle or two before the foreign guidance though so it earns props for that. None of the models are resolving where to place the boundary that the heaviest qpf will set up along today as they bounce that around every run and were at game time so overall they all get an F on this one with maybe the gfs squeaking by with a d for at least not ever having th Sunday thing even though it messed up Saturday also.

Euro, Ukie, and CMC are all bringing back the coastal for later Sunday, mainly impacting east of I-95. GFS is too far east for now.

 

12z runs today are gonna be HUGE

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

… well east of I-95, I'm east of 95 and the Euro gives me < 0.1" of precipitation with the coastal. I do see amounts of ~0.4" due east of me along MD/DE border. 

Yeah the wb clown snow map from the 0z Euro has 3-5" for places like Salisbury and into DE and SNJ. CMC and UK in that general camp as well. Still time for an adjustment westward for this, although its low probability given the h5 look.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

The models were all awful with this. Before we praise the gfs too much, yes it was correct with the Sunday system being east but perhaps for the wrong reason. 36 hours ago none of the guidance had this wave today as anything more then some sprinkles as the cold reinforced to set up the storm Sunday. Suddenly yesterday all the guidance picked up on this frontrunner ejecting and that really killed the Sunday storm. Too much competition for energy. This wave has no upper support so it can't really produce the kind of dynamic cooling we needed plus worst timing possible and this originally was going to provide another shot of cold now the precip comes in before that so its more marginal. Plus this is just waa driven and us washing out as the wave outruns its support and crashes into the ridging. It just mucked the timing up hat we needed badly. The guidance was all a mess on this IMO. I will give the gfs this it was the best of a sorry lot. It never fell for the Sunday system, though I wonder if it was right for the wrong reasons there because it at first was shunting that east because it was way off on the h5 low over the lakes and it came around to the euro on that but that was as all models were picking up on the Saturday wave mucking things up. It did have hints of this Saturday thing a cycle or two before the foreign guidance though so it earns props for that. None of the models are resolving where to place the boundary that the heaviest qpf will set up along today as they bounce that around every run and were at game time so overall they all get an F on this one with maybe the gfs squeaking by with a d for at least not ever having th Sunday thing even though it messed up Saturday also.

I kinda thought same thing. The Euro did a better job on the 500's and the GFS did a better job on the surface reflection. But as you, I also wondered if the GFS may have been right but for the wrong reasons.

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

Posted
Posted

I kinda thought same thing. The Euro did a better job on the 500's and the GFS did a better job on the surface reflection. But as you, I also wondered if the GFS may have been right but for the wrong reasons.

The euro 500 no more than 48 hours ago would have brought a paste bomb from here to Maine. It was as wrong as sin.

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

Posted
Posted

The models were all awful with this. Before we praise the gfs too much, yes it was correct with the Sunday system being east but perhaps for the wrong reason. 36 hours ago none of the guidance had this wave today as anything more then some sprinkles as the cold reinforced to set up the storm Sunday. Suddenly yesterday all the guidance picked up on this frontrunner ejecting and that really killed the Sunday storm. Too much competition for energy. This wave has no upper support so it can't really produce the kind of dynamic cooling we needed plus worst timing possible and this originally was going to provide another shot of cold now the precip comes in before that so its more marginal. Plus this is just waa driven and us washing out as the wave outruns its support and crashes into the ridging. It just mucked the timing up hat we needed badly. The guidance was all a mess on this IMO. I will give the gfs this it was the best of a sorry lot. It never fell for the Sunday system, though I wonder if it was right for the wrong reasons there because it at first was shunting that east because it was way off on the h5 low over the lakes and it came around to the euro on that but that was as all models were picking up on the Saturday wave mucking things up. It did have hints of this Saturday thing a cycle or two before the foreign guidance though so it earns props for that. None of the models are resolving where to place the boundary that the heaviest qpf will set up along today as they bounce that around every run and were at game time so overall they all get an F on this one with maybe the gfs squeaking by with a d for at least not ever having th Sunday thing even though it messed up Saturday also.

Good write up PSU. You make good arguments here and it explained well. I think with a strong El Niño like we have had there are so many moving parts and factors that it's tough on any model. That said though out of all the guidance within 72-96 hours the GFS never had a negative tilt bomb like the euro, ukie or cmc. It actually painted a more proper picture at 500. The front runner being more dominant did come more into the picture yesterday but we shouldn't be terribly surprised as its been happening like this for weeks. I give the nod to the GFS on this one.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Can't wait for my 40 degree snow

HRRR and RAP arent too enthusiastic about much accumulation during the day today east of the highlands. 12z NAM likes your area. I will say this, the dew point here has dropped from 32 to 27 over the last couple hours, while temp has stayed at 42. Where the heaviest precip is falling, esp later today, surface temps should fall into the low 30s from evap/dynamical cooling, and snow should accumulate. Would not be surprised to see an inch or 2 especially up your way.

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

Posted
Posted

This is the perfect ending to this winter. Couldn't have been more fitting.

Totally agree. it was all or nothing with the super Nino. Impressive for 36 hours and the rest was muddled with frustration. This winter was anything but normal for all of the conus in general.

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

Posted
Posted

I didn't say it did a great job, just said it did a better job then the GFS which was way to progressive with the trough.

I think the progressive 500 pattern is what ended up happening here. The initial euro pattern was amplified and negative tilted to our west.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Totally agree. it was all or nothing with the super Nino. Impressive for 36 hours and the rest was muddled with frustration. This winter was anything but normal for all of the conus in general.

It is what it is. Warm overall, but we managed above normal snow. I didn't get historic snow here in the blizz... 15", but I have gotten 10+" imby since. Not my type of winter, but I am somewhat amazed at the amount of snow that managed to fall despite very brief moderate cold spells/few favorable set ups.

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