ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 18z GFS actually improved from 12z for the N and W burbs. It's definitely the coldest. Same storm track but it noses the high furthest south of all the guidance and keeps most of the area as snow throughout. Looks like it dumps 4 to locally 8 inches with 12" amounts in upslope favored areas of the Allegeny front and BR. March sun angle and warm ground won't do us any favors though. East of the Blue Ridge can shave off 50% of these totals with probably a 1-2/3 inch slush on grass late Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Rgem rockin' lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016031818&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Some great 38 and rain March chasing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 e16 or bust. Probably the latter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Ensembles not too shabby. Hopefully we can get this event delayed a few hours so we can get most of that to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 What's behind the difference in those - is it rates or ground temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 It's crazy the spread on the ensembles both eps and gefs at this range. Several with nothing and some with close to a foot just nw of 95. They can't even figure out the evolution. Right now they are jumping on the Saturday wave but I wonder if the Sunday storn comes back once the models resolve things. The upper support is there for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 6 weeks ago this would have been sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 It's crazy the spread on the ensembles both eps and gefs at this range. Several with nothing and some with close to a foot just nw of 95. They can't even figure out the evolution. Right now they are jumping on the Saturday wave but I wonder if the Sunday storn comes back once the models resolve things. The upper support is there for it.Good post. When the euro bailed on the nuke and consensus showed weak upside I pretty much went into chips fall mode. But I also noticed the spread. It's a tricky setup in the upper levels. There's good upper level support but it's an unusual progression. I wouldn't be surprised with a complete dud with no impact anywhere or some kind of mini nuke. I was hoping to expect 2" in my yard as a good bet at this point. The event is right on top of us and I don't feel confident in any outcome other than not looking good for an impressive event. But even that isn't completely off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Good post. When the euro bailed on the nuke and consensus showed weak upside I pretty much went into chips fall mode. But I also noticed the spread. It's a tricky setup in the upper levels. There's good upper level support but it's an unusual progression. I wouldn't be surprised with a complete dud with no impact anywhere or some kind of mini nuke. I was hoping to expect 2" in my yard as a good bet at this point. The event is right on top of us and I don't feel confident in any outcome other than not looking good for an impressive event. But even that isn't completely off the table. This is a fascinating event to me even without the Euro bomb on the table. It's 9 pm Friday night. The spread in the models for even tomorrow afternoon is still pretty large, let alone for Sunday afternoon. Can anyone say with confidence what's happening tomorrow at 12 pm? Rain? Snow? No precip at all? And what about the measurable precip swinging through late Sunday night/early Monday morning on the NAM and GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 6 weeks ago this would have been sweet Agreed. It could still surprise. Especially out this way. In fact I am thinking this will be our 2nd biggest event this season. Even with the slightly toasty surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 6 weeks ago this would have been sweet 3 would have done it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 NAM should run at 9:30 now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 3 would have done it so would 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 NAM should run at 9:30 now right? Just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 NAM should run at 9:30 now right?About 9:50 or soEdit: apparently a little earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 About 9:50 or so Edit: apparently a little earlier Factoring in the red NCEP disclaimers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Snowing at 10:00am for Baltimore northern burbs on 0z lol, let's see how crazy stupid this run looks. (NAM). Okay it's like the 18z NAM but drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Snowing at 10:00am for Baltimore northern burbs on 0z lol, let's see how crazy stupid this run looks. (NAM) BR is the R/S line at 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Snowing at DCA at 5pm per NAM P-TYPE map ETA: Sounding is very nice at 5pm at DCA... would support snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The models have no idea what to make of a late March potential moderate+ Snowstorm. Absolutely no idea at all as this does not fit into a mathematical construct. We desperately need a different methodology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 sorry to be a pain, usually dont ask this kind of thing but im mobile and cant check.... got outdoor stuff going on in Sterling up till 11am... does the NAM get me wet prior to t hen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 sorry to be a pain, usually dont ask this kind of thing but im mobile and cant check.... got outdoor stuff going on in Sterling up till 11am... does the NAM get me wet prior to t hen? As far as the hi res NAM I'd lean no, but soon afterwards precip does look more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Then NAM and 4K are decent events out here. Surface temps are a bit concerning. But they are certainly cold enough to accum for deck pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 00z NAM is digging the northern stream further east again. Not looking good for the second round/coastal. Enjoy whatever falls tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 00z RGEM says I can get some yard work done tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 00z GFS says maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 GFS kinda makes sense... good snow in mappyville and the apps. screwjob here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Just be happy we don't live in New England. This might be the worst winter ever for my old hometown in NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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