BristowWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 In our defense it looked pretty good 24 hrs ago. I almost canx my spring break trip with family. Doged that bullet. Lots of lessons learned this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I need 0.5" to jump contours on mappy's map. Let's do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I need 0.5" to jump contours on mappy's map. Let's do it. March 2001 was on the analog list. basically this is what its become Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I've learned that a great model reading strategy this winter was to choose the model that showed the least amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I wish for once he would do that wench a favor and just kick her in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Everyone is so down about the winter. Pretty much all of us saw an historical storm. On that rewrote the history books at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Everyone is so down about the winter. Pretty much all of us saw an historical storm. On that rewrote the history books at BWI. By that logic we should have all just stopped looking after the storm. Doesn't work that way. Neither does telling people how they should "feel" about the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Everyone is so down about the winter. Pretty much all of us saw an historical storm. On that rewrote the history books at BWI. I think the deal is, it is cold and miserable this weekend. And if it is gonna get cold and precipitate it should snow! 30s and rain sucks after having 80 degree weather! No fishing this weekend! (well... that can never be said as I would fish in cold weather too!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I've learned that a great model reading strategy this winter was to choose the model that showed the least amount of snow. And you'll be right 95% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I wish for once he would do that wench a favor and just kick her in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I've learned that a great model reading strategy this winter was to choose the model that showed the least amount of snow. Been following model runs since 1996 and I can tell you that this strategy is the one that works best most years. Think the last few years have spoiled us all with the fact it just wanted to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 By that logic we should have all just stopped looking after the storm. Doesn't work that way. Neither does telling people how they should "feel" about the winter. The bugs and weeds never went away. It looks like mid April out there. Its been weird, because even though there was no persistent cold to speak of( and plenty of persistent warm) we did have above normal snow. So imagine how awful it could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Modeling is tough in a strong El Niño. A lot of moving parts in play and seasons like this can be all or nothing unfortunately. From a historical perspective there have been only a half dozen strong El Nino's in this region on record. A couple produced no snow, a couple produced little snow and a couple produced a lot of snow. 2015/2016 was an all or nothing winter but we managed a great blizzard. 36" for me on one storm was just phenomenal. Many hugged the euro this winter and it has proved that it can fail. It simply isn't a hook line and sinker model and even in this situation where 24 hours ago it's ensemble members supported the op within an "automatic" range. I know I've stated this before but our community both professional and non has developed an over reliance on the euro. I make a living doing this work and I've had to make formal briefings to decision makers over euro hyped snow maps on Twitter more times than I can count. Just yesterday the GFS was deemed a national embarrassment and receives little praise when it does right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Everyone is so down about the winter. Pretty much all of us saw an historical storm. On that rewrote the history books at BWI. This years blizz was great, but it didn't exceed my expectations of 36" in 2010...which I missed for Disney World. I'm still bitter about that. Anyway--hope next years La Niña can produce...beach weather. :-( Suffering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 as soon as bob chill said the new euro is incredible 3 days out and he has never seen anything like it....that was the kiss of death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 NAM is interesting for the NW Burbs tomorrow. Hr 27 is loltastic . Lol 1" per hour snowfall for like 1 hour. 3" for DC. EDITED to remove the : O , this event isn't close to : O worthy. If Westminster is ripping and 34 tomorrow, that's would be from the same stuff NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 What's the opposite of a snow hole? This is a ridiculous Namming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 What's the opposite of a snow hole? This is a ridiculous Namming. Makes good sense. Heavy snow in the cities and rain all around them :-) lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 NAM is a bit better later Saturday into Sunday AM especially N and W of 95. High to the north a tad better and the low further north. Snow could accumulate in this scenario since it's falling overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 What's the opposite of a snow hole? This is a ridiculous Namming. Yea, how many times has it been raining throughout virtually the entire state of WV and +SN in the District and southern MD at the same time? A hearty guffaw, NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Yea, how many times has it been raining throughout virtually the entire state of WV and +SN in the District and southern MD at the same time? A hearty guffaw, NAM. I assume it's responding to rate of precip. Or it's just crazy. That may be the story of tomorrow with rates and what is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I assume it's responding to rate of precip. Or it's just crazy. That may be the story of tomorrow with rates and what is falling. Its rates. The heavy precip through that area has surface temps in the low 30s, while areas further north are in the upper 30s and even 40 in PA. Who knows if its correct on placement, but thats probably how it will go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I have seen snow fall in heavy precip with rain all around it! Pretty wild and possible in heavy recip. IF NAM is right (and we know that If is no!) then it could! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Hi-Res NAM looks like the others.. nothing too significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I have seen snow fall in heavy precip with rain all around it! Pretty wild and possible in heavy recip. IF NAM is right (and we know that If is no!) then it could! Its more common this time of year where surface cold is marginal. Under the heavier precip, dynamical cooling does its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Its more common this time of year where surface cold is marginal. Under the heavier precip, dynamical cooling does its thing. Unless it starts out colder and drier then currently progged we probably won't see stickage until after sunset and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 If I saw the GFS maps for tomorrow for a Sat in mid Feb I would have been drooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Many hugged the euro this winter and it has proved that it can fail. It simply isn't a hook line and sinker model and even in this situation where 24 hours ago it's ensemble members supported the op within an "automatic" range. I know I've stated this before but our community both professional and non has developed an over reliance on the euro. I make a living doing this work and I've had to make formal briefings to decision makers over euro hyped snow maps on Twitter more times than I can count. Just yesterday the GFS was deemed a national embarrassment and receives little praise when it does right. Well said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 This event is going to be good. 30.05 Baro with low off Va capes and a dew to temp spread something like 45/17 tomorrow at 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 18z GFS actually improved from 12z for the N and W burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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