AmericanWxFreak Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 lol cmc pretty much snows thru monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I agree but more often than not when you see 3 op runs in a row with strong ens support it's usually in lock in mode regardless of the setup (inside of 96. Beyond that range any op can and will fail regularly). The gfs is so bouncy that one of the runs is probably right because it throws them all out there. I've had a hard time with the gfs outside of 3 days this year. Run to run consistency is not the GFS's forte. I was thinking last night before I went to sleep that if the euro is going to change it's tune it's probably going to be the 0z run because we're just about in the real deadly range. Is what it is. It's a tricky h5 setup and not a classic storm setup. That was in the back of my mind the whole time but I liked what I saw and went with it. Yeah def not a sure thing. I've become a Euro hugger of late.. perhaps too much. Usually if you get it to show the same thing for a few runs it's going to win. But this isn't an easy setup. Plus it's late March. Honestly no real loss if it doesn't happen. The people who always say storms will bust will claim victory if it fails but that's not forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 lol cmc pretty much snows thru monday What an awful model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Yeah def not a sure thing. I've become a Euro hugger of late.. perhaps too much. Usually if you get it to show the same thing for a few runs it's going to win. But this isn't an easy setup. Plus it's late March. Honestly no real loss if it doesn't happen. The people who always say storms will bust will claim victory if it fails but that's not forecasting. Strong El Niño has made things difficult this year. No doubt it's a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 What an awful model. I approve of it, it delays onset enough for my pre noon plans saturday. plzzzz mother nature, work with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 UKMET is similar to the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ukmet = staying alive. At least for the northeastern 1/2 of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ukmet = staying alive. At least for the northeastern 1/2 of the region. Looks ok for N VA and then to the NE... ETA -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=12&var=std〈=en&map=us Looks ok after 12z for DCA IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 any intel into ukie start time saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 you're right about eastern WV, but that thickness is just too high for the DC area. And the NAM precip type maps do show rain at 21z for all of DC Metro. You don't get into snow unless you go west to the Shenandoah Valley. but hey, the NAM seems to be a warm outlier so... I don't see how you can make the call of soaking rain off of that map. Yeah, the surface freezing line is north, mostly, but if it's 34 and heavy precip, I doubt that it's a soaking rain. The eastern part of WV has thickness above 540 but the surface is below 32 there. Doubt that that is soaking rain either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Fairly wet event as depicted on the UKMET-- 0.8-1"+ for the 95 corridor. ~0.4" is snow at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Yeah, the UK looks like a pretty good storm for the region. Won't be shocked if the Euro shows a good one too. Won't be shocked if it doesn't also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Most Last important Euro run of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Yeah, the UK looks like a pretty good storm for the region. Won't be shocked if the Euro shows a good one too. Won't be shocked if it doesn't also. There are still very significant differences in timing among all three global model runs so far. We just don't know what's going to happen after 8 am on Sunday yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 GGEM/UKIE verbatim are fairly good for Central MD, but can we trust models with daytime snow in Late March Sun Angle season? Euro doesn't look like it's going to correct back to the 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 12z Euro precip starts 12-2pm tomorrow, but temps are in the mid 40s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 12z Euro precip starts 12-2pm tomorrow, but temps are in the mid 40s... How are you getting the data that fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Looks almost identical to #kinggfs through 48 in terms of surface and 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 12z Euro is similar to the 0z Euro, slightly less QPF, temperatures are similar, maybe a smidge warmer.. Run is better Philly to Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 12z Euro is similar to the 0z Euro, maybe slightly less favorable.... maybe slightly more precip for the end though. the end is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 the end is rain If this forum died, that would be its epitaph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 And I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 And I'm out. Why were we ever in... It is March 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just need 1.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Rain begins later Saturday but with the very good evap it's snow overnight and then see what Sunday brings For this time of the year this is a phenomenal opportunity to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Locally the upper eastern shore, central/N DE, into NJ seem to get the highest qpf, and may be related to deform band on the backside of the low, with surface temps 31-34, and this area is where (per wb) 5-7" would fall. Cut that in half and that is probably closer to reality. DC and most of central MD is 2-3" ... again all this per wb snow map/temp map for 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 And I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just need 1.4" I think you will make it lol. Fwiw, wb snow map for your area is right around 6". With your temps being colder that might be pretty close to reality, if the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just need 1.4" In the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I can't believe we needed that gif again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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