high risk Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I certainly agree with that. just not ready to go with the shutout idea up there either.... The idea of a 977 low off ACK and a 966 off ME that was shown by the euro looks to be out at this point. They were talking blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Funny thing with this map is it's a complete shut out for New England. Accuweather was all over this being a major storm for New England and even had potential for NYC, NJ, and Long Island. If current guidance is correct, there will be a lot of dissapointed people north of us :-) Yeah, NE is on a roller coaster ride from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It's about that time for us to get nam'ed methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It's about that time for us to get nam'ed methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 ^ I still can't read those maps very well. Looks like the freezing line is well south down around Richmond, but the 540 is up around MD/PA border. So what's that mean for us in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 One of the warning signs for this storm yesterday was that it didn't have a lot of support in the 12z GEFS or GEPS ensembles. Only 2 GEPS members showed big hits for DC, and no GEFS members did. A lot of members in both ensembles had no snow at all for DC. Last night's 00z runs moved towards the middle. No big hits, but also fewer complete whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 850 freezing line is well south, but sfc freezing line is up in New York. The warm thickness implies a soaking rain here. ^ I still can't read those maps very well. Looks like the freezing line is well south down around Richmond, but the 540 is up around MD/PA border. So what's that mean for us in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 good point, but to play the other side of the coin, the EPS members were pretty locked in to the bit hit idea, and that system is usually extremely good. One of the warning signs for this storm yesterday was that it didn't have a lot of support in the 12z GEFS or GEPS ensembles. Only 2 GEPS members showed big hits for DC, and no GEFS members did. A lot of members in both ensembles had no snow at all for DC. Last night's 00z runs moved towards the middle. No big hits, but also fewer complete whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro isn't quite as good with northern stream or it hasn't been historically. We've also seen a number of times this winter that weaker systems win in closing. Of course we've also seen some powerhouse lows this winter. Never easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 We need rules for not focusing on off-runs after ones with consecutive precision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Lucy has picked up the football! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 850 freezing line is well south, but sfc freezing line is up in New York. The warm thickness implies a soaking rain here. I don't see how you can make the call of soaking rain off of that map. Yeah, the surface freezing line is north, mostly, but if it's 34 and heavy precip, I doubt that it's a soaking rain. The eastern part of WV has thickness above 540 but the surface is below 32 there. Doubt that that is soaking rain either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro isn't quite as good with northern stream or it hasn't been historically. We've also seen a number of times this winter that weaker systems win in closing. Of course we've also seen some powerhouse lows this winter. Never easy. I agree but more often than not when you see 3 op runs in a row with strong ens support it's usually in lock in mode regardless of the setup (inside of 96. Beyond that range any op can and will fail regularly). The gfs is so bouncy that one of the runs is probably right because it throws them all out there. I've had a hard time with the gfs outside of 3 days this year. Run to run consistency is not the GFS's forte. I was thinking last night before I went to sleep that if the euro is going to change it's tune it's probably going to be the 0z run because we're just about in the real deadly range. Is what it is. It's a tricky h5 setup and not a classic storm setup. That was in the back of my mind the whole time but I liked what I saw and went with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro isn't quite as good with northern stream or it hasn't been historically. We've also seen a number of times this winter that weaker systems win in closing. Of course we've also seen some powerhouse lows this winter. Never easy. I blame you for this debacle........... posting that early LWX snow map which basically showed a shut-out. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 New AM video from Rayno. http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/new-england-snowstorm-close-ca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Rayno does a good job describing the setup and subtle differences in the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The euro center of circulation jumped a good 300 miles northeast in the last run compared to yesterday's 0Z and 12Z runs for 12Z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 gfs looks half decent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 12z GFS looks decent enough to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I'd take 3-4" Do those maps take ground temp into account for accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I'd take 3-4" Do those maps take ground temp into account for accumulations? not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 According to the gfs, you won't have to wait long to find out what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The euro center of circulation jumped a good 300 miles northeast in the last run compared to yesterday's 0Z and 12Z runs for 12Z Sunday. Typical Euro. Small shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 I'd take 3-4" Do those maps take ground temp into account for accumulations? cut that in half and its probably a better representation and even then its probably too much if it falls during the day with temps at 35-36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Typical Euro. Small shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Troff never really goes negative like models were showing yesterday, so there's no coastal bomb until way late. Looks like a nice 36 hr 1-2" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 3-6" on GFS falling during the day with warm ground temps in late March is less than ideal. 1-2" at best elevated surfaces, grass, mulch etc and not til late in the day as the sun gets down. NAM solution showing rain all day then change to snow late more favorable to put down meaningful accumulations after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I'd take 3-4" Do those maps take ground temp into account for accumulations? With temps in the 30's and the sun angle... good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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