stormtracker Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 48 hours out..even if it fails, it's time for a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Right here with ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Pin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Pin it. LOL. Too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Right on cue.. 12z GGEM is a rainstorm. Great track, but a secondary LP runs west of the apps and ruins Mid Levels. Light back end snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS: Euro: Reality: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Right on cue.. 12z GGEM is a rainstorm. Its a crap model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12z UKIE wobbled east a bit.. track looks like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Its a crap model It is. And it already had "trended" to a rainstorm from 12z yesterday to 0z. Salisbury went from 15" of digital snow to mild rain in one model cycle. Garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12z UKIE wobbled east a bit.. track looks like the Euro. I don't see it out yet on meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I don't see it out yet on meteocentre Someone posted it in NYC forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS has a warm bias, but so does Spring.. A lot of white rain seems likely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12z UKIE at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 THIS run of the CMC loves central and NE PA and up into New England. Mostly rain for the coastal plain. A couple inches NW burbs of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ukie would be a nice track and hit based on 72-96 progression imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 ^^ Perhaps, though the surface high sliding off the New England coast isn't as ideal for feeding in colder air at the surface compared to a placement a little further west over the GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 ^^ Perhaps, though the surface high sliding off the New England coast isn't as ideal for feeding in colder air at the surface compared to a placement a little further west over the GL. I don't agree completely there. In December, maybe, but this late in the season a New England high is just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Except it's transitioning to not even being a New Englans high since it's moving off the coast. You can start to get more ocean temp influence rather than interior New England temp influence. I see the metrogram for the Ukie shows surface temp & even 850 mb temp near the freezing mark at 12z Sunday, but hard to say what the atmospheric makeup will be after that point (those parameters only go out 72 hrs), especially if the surface high continues to move further out to sea. I don't agree completely there. In December, maybe, but this late in the season a New England high is just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 You guys should be pulling for a CRAS solution. Start time post 84hrs, allows cold air to settle in completely, wants to consolidate all upper level energy into one big storm. Extrapolating this turd of a model would likely yield a MECS DC-BOS. Wishful thinking anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I agree with BOB, UKIE looks like a nice hit for us. Temps of course marginal but the track is ideal, probably about as good as we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ukie would be a nice track and hit based on 72-96 progression imo. That's pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Except it's transitioning to not even being a New Englans high since it's moving off the coast. You can start to get more ocean temp influence rather than interior New England temp influence. I see the metrogram for the Ukie shows surface temp & even 850 mb temp near the freezing mark at 12z Sunday, but hard to say what the atmospheric makeup will be after that point (those parameters only go out 72 hrs), especially if the surface high continues to move further out to sea. Antecedent conditions in the midlevels are good. We are at the mercy of dynamics no matter which way you slice it. A perfect HP planted in a perfect spot with light rates is still a fail. You have to make an educated guess between hours 72-96 on the ukie but it sure looks like CCB/deform moving right through as the low strengthens on its way up. We have good upper level support too. Heavy precip will keep the column good except for the lowest levels. But I would expect low to mid 30's tops during the heaviest rates. Euro might be too cold though. We'll know more in 45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Antecedent conditions in the midlevels are good. We are at the mercy of dynamics no matter which way you slice it. A perfect HP planted in a perfect spot with light rates is still a fail. You have to make an educated guess between hours 72-96 on the ukie but it sure looks like CCB/deform moving right through as the low strengthens on it's way up. We have good upper level support too. Heavy precip will keep the column good except for the lowest levels. But I would expect low to mid 30's tops during the heaviest rates. Euro might be too cold though. That would be a rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 That would be a rarity. It would. But dropping temps down through the 30's during broad daylight in the afternoon takes a lot. Dynamically driven for sure. If the euro was too juiced and comes in weaker then expect enthusiasm for a significant hit to wane because the solution will certainly be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 In before 'sun angle' and 'extra sampling' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ukie would be a nice track and hit based on 72-96 progression imo. with this 72 hr. 500mb map, you can be sure that subsequent panels would show a real explosion of precip as well as cooling temps http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=QQ500&hh=072&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=072&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 It would. But dropping temps down through the 30's during broad daylight in the afternoon takes a lot. Dynamically driven for sure. If the euro was too juiced and comes in weaker then expect enthusiasm for a significant hit to wane because the solution will certainly be warmer. Was there much spread on the Euro ensembles with regard to timing? Or do most of them have the low at Norfolk's latitude at 0Z Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 That would be a rarity. Ha, I thought the same thing....Euro is usually stubbornly warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Was there much spread on the Euro ensembles with regard to timing? Or do most of them have the low at Norfolk's latitude at 0Z Monday? Very few had precip in here by 0z Sun. But we're still far enough out for a significant shift in timing. With that being said there really isn't much support for what the gfs spit out at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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