KamuSnow Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 And just as I'm reading your post? Flurries arrive on the other side of Glen Mills. It's been light and mostly steady since then, we were outside cutting down (and up) a tree and got kind of wet in the process. 36F here now with still some light wet snow falling. Nice, even if it isn't enough to stick..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 19, 2016 Author Share Posted March 19, 2016 This is dropping like a rock for the NW burbs 50% chance I see a trace or more now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Ch 10 and 6 possible totals during the 6pm newscast: (Caution: disturbingly pathetic) I'd put my money on Ch6, if anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Central and south Jersey now have all models on board except the NAM for 4-6" SEPA wicked gradient us northwest folks look screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 It's snowing here...Very wet flakes it seems, but flakes nevertheless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 GFS slp is stronger/further west and has ~ .5" qpf to the del river (looks like about 3" back my way) but trending in the right direction at this late juncture.. We'll see. Though the nam was a bit drier than its 12z run. Still anyone's/any models guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 18z GFS does indeed show over one inch qpf for SE NJ. I just wonder how much of that is non snow. We had sleet and snow mixed today under heavier bands. It was 45 but quickly cooled to 39. Maybe we can flip to snow sooner than midnight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Anyone that thinks they will see meaningful accumulations Del River on west in this set up is a huge weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GFS slp is stronger/further west and has ~ .5" qpf to the del river (looks like about 3" back my way) but trending in the right direction at this late juncture.. We'll see. Though the nam was a bit drier than its 12z run. Still anyone's/any models guess. You will not see 3" based on that output. You'll be lucky to see a slushy coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Latest srefs .5 line to Philly through Trenton. Central Jersey actually looking decent now. May be a nice surprise if trends continue. Could be a NJ special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 Temps falling fast here down to 34f here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 NAM shifted N and W. Laughable differences between 0z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Congrats South And Central NJ. Looking like a solid 4-8" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 You will not see 3" based on that output. You'll be lucky to see a slushy coating.All data is ticking N and W with the slp and precip. Blend of amounts from Euro/GFS/NAM/GGEM/RGEM/SREF is a solid 1-3" for his area which falls after dark. Keep in mind the ticks N and W are still ongoing thru the last model output which is the 0z NAM as I type this. This clearly isnt a 'huge' deal West of I95 still, but I think he does better than just a slushy coating that you are saying he will be lucky to see (unless he sleeps in until noon Monday as by that time a slushy coating may be all that remains.....March 21 solar radiation is a killer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Monmouth County gets into the 1" qpf on the 0z NAM couldn't make this stuff up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 Monmouth County gets into the 1" qpf on the 0z NAM couldn't make this stuff up Did someone say jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Elevation will still be needed with this or a lot of white rain..... Sent from my SM-T800 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Anyone that thinks they will see meaningful accumulations Del River on west in this set up is a huge weenie ...based on what? All guidance is shifting NW even with the .25-.5 line and is now going to fall towards the evening. 1-3" looks possible with 3 closer to the river. Being negative to be negative.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 ...based on what? All guidance is shifting NW even with the .25-.5 line and is now going to fall towards the evening. 1-3" looks possible with 3 closer to the river. Being negative to be negative.... Check surface temps. We barely get to freezing overnight and a majority falls with temps above freezing. You are gonna be disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 All data is ticking N and W with the slp and precip. Blend of amounts from Euro/GFS/NAM/GGEM/RGEM/SREF is a solid 1-3" for his area which falls after dark. Keep in mind the ticks N and W are still ongoing thru the last model output which is the 0z NAM as I type this. This clearly isnt a 'huge' deal West of I95 still, but I think he does better than just a slushy coating that you are saying he will be lucky to see (unless he sleeps in until noon Monday as by that time a slushy coating may be all that remains.....March 21 solar radiation is a killer). ...based on what? All guidance is shifting NW even with the .25-.5 line and is now going to fall towards the evening. 1-3" looks possible with 3 closer to the river. Being negative to be negative.... Couldn't have said it better myself... It's the "same old same old" input, rather "output", from him... as he so correctly identified himself in response to one of my previous posts....lol!! Now, not saying he's wrong but jees it's truly tiresome... Sorry!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Check surface temps. We barely get to freezing overnight and a majority falls with temps above freezing. You are gonna be disappointed I'm not going to be disappointed, most guidance has me in The 5-6" range even with bad ratio's I should easily see 3-4". And Nam has me at 31 during the height of the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 SEPA is toast on this one... Monmouth special again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I'm not going to be disappointed, most guidance has me in The 5-6" range even with bad ratio's I should easily see 3-4". And Nam has me at 31 during the height of the storm... Most guidance?? Are you kidding? Not even that NAM shows that and the GFS is perhaps 1-2 for you with 10:1. Look, if it over performs I'll be the first to come on here and state I was wrong, but I just think most on here are ignoring the facts. Low rates and temps at or above freezing mean expect far less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 All data is ticking N and W with the slp and precip. Blend of amounts from Euro/GFS/NAM/GGEM/RGEM/SREF is a solid 1-3" for his area which falls after dark. Keep in mind the ticks N and W are still ongoing thru the last model output which is the 0z NAM as I type this. This clearly isnt a 'huge' deal West of I95 still, but I think he does better than just a slushy coating that you are saying he will be lucky to see (unless he sleeps in until noon Monday as by that time a slushy coating may be all that remains.....March 21 solar radiation is a killer). GFS backs off. Next winter I am using a ouija board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Cool meltdown in NYC thread over late March white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Share Posted March 20, 2016 Cool meltdown in NYC thread over late March white rain Looks like it is par for the course. It wouldn't be a bust without NYC dystopia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Cool meltdown in NYC thread over late March white rainDude was being an idiot. Acts if he knows more than everyone else. I may have hit below the belt, but screw it.Just an Internet bully at times. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Currently 43/27 with a NE wind around 10-15. Temps warmed up from 35 last night but hopefully we can still whiten the grass once more tonight. Interior south Jersey should do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 And the NAM moves further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Good thing snowors ignored me....so he can't see me laughing at him throughout this "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.