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Nor' Easter Threat Mar. 20th 2016


zenmsav6810

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Nam is a step towards the Euro. General 6-8" region wide. Precip issues only at the coast. BTW new England gets absolutely smoked..and still snowing heavy there at the end of the run.

Nam is not 6-8" with those rates and half of it falling during daylight hours in late March

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Nam is not 6-8" with those rates and half of it falling during daylight hours in late March

Agreed. Definite move towards Euro at 500mb tho in that the 500mb low is closed off farther West yet manages to open up, dig more, and amplify at the right time. NAM verbatim this run is probably closer to 3-6". Step in the right direction tho and while I dont feel like shoveling, I will gladly take a 3-6" snow event in late March! Again, another tick West this run and surface getting very marginal. Would like to see these ticks West stop at 6z.
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GFS ticked West literally a hair. No significant changes at the surface otherwise.....wants little to do with this storm. At 500mb there are notable differences with the additional energy N of the GL around 60 hrs. Was trying to dive this into the trof prior runs, basically holds it in Canada this run. Difference between a SECS and a MECS/HECS for the NE crowd imo as this additional energy was fueling a bomb on other guidance.

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I know GFS isn't the best but it's inside 72hrs this would be a colossal fail for the model

not colossal, it has the storm it is just weaker and farther east with it (which is not entirely a new thing for the GFS) In any event, given your paradigm, it would be a colossal failure by the Euro/UKMET if wrong as well

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Just incredible ECM took a big jog east, N&W people in trouble

Follows the UKMET which showed a less intense storm

Positively tilted trof will do it every time. Biggest player as I pointed out earlier is that piece of energy N of the GL around 60 hours. That was originally the key player that dove into the trof on the models showing a hit and caused the storm to bomb out, the trof to go negative, and the storm to get tugged closer to the coast. The models have moved away from that idea and are now hinting that piece is more of a kicker that remains a separate entity and keeps the system more progressive. As usual, it appears the GFS handled/is handling that Northern energy much better which is its specialty. Bummed but not over yet. At least it isnt an inside runner like I thought was going to happen.
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