RedSky Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Who has been drinking here besides me, NAM looked hideous then got captured it scared the heck out of me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Who has been drinking here besides me, NAM looked hideous then got captured it scared the heck out of me lol Did you delete your previous post? I was wondering what you were seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Did you delete your previous post? I was wondering what you were seeing. I was seeing the NAMs chase a pot of gold in Bermuda and a leprechaun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam is a step towards the Euro. General 6-8" region wide. Precip issues only at the coast. BTW new England gets absolutely smoked..and still snowing heavy there at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam is a step towards the Euro. General 6-8" region wide. Precip issues only at the coast. BTW new England gets absolutely smoked..and still snowing heavy there at the end of the run. Nam is not 6-8" with those rates and half of it falling during daylight hours in late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Glenn's time table during the 11pm newscast: (Too much daytime precip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam is not 6-8" with those rates and half of it falling during daylight hours in late MarchAgreed. Definite move towards Euro at 500mb tho in that the 500mb low is closed off farther West yet manages to open up, dig more, and amplify at the right time. NAM verbatim this run is probably closer to 3-6". Step in the right direction tho and while I dont feel like shoveling, I will gladly take a 3-6" snow event in late March! Again, another tick West this run and surface getting very marginal. Would like to see these ticks West stop at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 GFS is a coating on the grass west of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 GFS ticked West literally a hair. No significant changes at the surface otherwise.....wants little to do with this storm. At 500mb there are notable differences with the additional energy N of the GL around 60 hrs. Was trying to dive this into the trof prior runs, basically holds it in Canada this run. Difference between a SECS and a MECS/HECS for the NE crowd imo as this additional energy was fueling a bomb on other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I know GFS isn't the best but it's inside 72hrs this would be a colossal fail for the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I know GFS isn't the best but it's inside 72hrs this would be a colossal fail for the model not colossal, it has the storm it is just weaker and farther east with it (which is not entirely a new thing for the GFS) In any event, given your paradigm, it would be a colossal failure by the Euro/UKMET if wrong as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I know GFS isn't the best but it's inside 72hrs this would be a colossal fail for the modelWould be more of a colossal fail for the new and improved Euro if in fact the GFS is on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I know GFS isn't the best but it's inside 72hrs this would be a colossal fail for the modelOr coup? Hopefully not!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Would be more of a colossal fail for the new and improved Euro if in fact the GFS is on the right track. UKMET is going to be huge tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 I know GFS isn't the best but it's inside 72hrs this would be a colossal fail for the model Give it one more run to get on the BW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Canadian amped up but still on the warm side. Still much more like Euro than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 GGEM is an awful model it shifted east 150 miles the interior crushing is now in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 UKMET is going to be huge tonight No, its going to be yoooooooooooooooggggge! see 5:20 in this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2DgwPG7mAA&feature=youtu.be&t=5m20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 UKMET looks very similar to 12z to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Word from our neighbour's to the north is the UKMET has held it's ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 0Z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 0Z ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just incredible ECM took a big jog east, N&W people in trouble Follows the UKMET which showed a less intense storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I'm plain stunned at the developments. Jesus Lucy really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 I'm plain stunned at the developments. Jesus Lucy really? Lucy needs to get a real job. I can't believe the GFS is right. Should have known when the NAM came in so dry... This blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just incredible ECM took a big jog east, N&W people in trouble Follows the UKMET which showed a less intense storm Positively tilted trof will do it every time. Biggest player as I pointed out earlier is that piece of energy N of the GL around 60 hours. That was originally the key player that dove into the trof on the models showing a hit and caused the storm to bomb out, the trof to go negative, and the storm to get tugged closer to the coast. The models have moved away from that idea and are now hinting that piece is more of a kicker that remains a separate entity and keeps the system more progressive. As usual, it appears the GFS handled/is handling that Northern energy much better which is its specialty. Bummed but not over yet. At least it isnt an inside runner like I thought was going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 With not a whole lot of time left to go, this is looking like a colossal fail for the new and "improved" European model. First true test and down in a ball of fire it would appear. 6z gfs consistent and supports the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Srefs went way East. Even the usually amped up CRAS is ots to our South. Looking like your run of the mill 1-3" March type event now in SE PA. POOF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 expecting some melting daytime snow, thats it. euro tease over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Any reason for the drastic flip? I mean yesterday it seemed like it was America against the world, and now it's almost as if the world caved to the American models. I'm wondering if this is just a hiccup, or if the east swing is legitimate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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