The Iceman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 If my area gets 8.6" from this, I'll hit 40" on the year snow wise. If I get over a foot, I'll actually beat my total from last winter. Normal is 23.4". In the warmest winter of all time. That would be pretty impressive. Would have to change my B- rating to an A- winter despite the lack of cold and consistent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 If my area gets 8.6" from this, I'll hit 40" on the year snow wise. If I get over a foot, I'll actually beat my total from last winter. Normal is 23.4". In the warmest winter of all time. That would be pretty impressive. Would have to change my B- rating to an A- winter despite the lack of cold and consistent snow. This would verify and surpass in the southern portions my winter snowfall forecast for the region, and put a big exclamation point on my call for the return of the big storm this winter after a several year hiatus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 Any maps? Just the one in the MA forum. Im just off of the edge of theirs, can just tell the gradient would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Glenn's 4"+ snow chances at 4pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 18z NAM 12k.....2-4" SE PA. Scratching my head..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 18z NAM 12k.....2-4" SE PA. Scratching my head..... It is funny it was super juiced yesterday leading the way, I can't wait to get NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 18z GFS southeast , still won't bite on the big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS NAM combo are so far off base from all the others it's unsettling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 For once, could it please not dump snow the night before I have to catch a flight this winter? I'm ok with a couple of inches, mind you. I just don't want to miss yet another plane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ukmet has been money all winter long... Though it would be fitting for it to be wrong here. Even as shaky as the euro has been, I'd take the uk and it over the gfs/nam which have been even worse than the euro this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Be it rain or be it snow... Seems that this will be a very big storm for some on the east coast! Bump^^^^ Looks like the calls for this storm to "POOF" have gone POOF!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Looking at the 18z gefs, starting at hour 60 there are a bunch of members that are way east. Most of the rest look to be in a good position. I think these east members are really skewing the mean. Any opinions on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Bump^^^^ Looks like the calls for this storm to "POOF" have gone POOF!! You do realize there is alot more that can go wrong for us with this threat than can go right, correct? On one extreme you have the Euro yielding around a foot of snow (keeps the 500mb wave open which allows for more digging of the trof) while other guidance is insistent on closing off a 500mb low in the midwest and merely giving SE PA a cursory light waa snowfall which would have problems accumulating during the daylight hours Sunday. Im far from being sold on a SECS/MECS right now though the threat certainly still exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 You do realize there is alot more that can go wrong for us with this threat than can go right, correct? On one extreme you have the Euro yielding around a foot of snow (keeps the 500mb wave open which allows for more digging of the trof) while other guidance is insistent on closing off a 500mb low in the midwest and merely giving SE PA a cursory light waa snowfall which would have problems accumulating during the daylight hours Sunday. Im far from being sold on a SECS/MECS right now though the threat certainly still exists.Lol...Commenting on those few who really just wanted to write this one off from the get-go... living in these parts for nearly 60 years I can count on my hands and one foot when that hasn't been the case... Having said that, I have and continue to believe that this one will be significant (6"+) for many on this board!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Lol... Commenting on those few who really just wanted to write this one off from the get-go... living in these parts for nearly 60 years I can count on my hands and one foot when that hasn't been the case... Having said that, I have and continue to believe that this one will be significant (6"+) for many on this board!! Well, I'm pulling for you. Personally I don't feel like shoveling or snowblowing this weekend, but whatever. Wouldn't be surprised to see the 0z suite come in amped and West yielding precip type concerns even in the nearby NW burbs causing panic in this subforum. Euro, while nice, has been consistently ticking up surface temps around I95 past several runs. Climo could rear its ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Well, I'm pulling for you. Personally I don't feel like shoveling or snowblowing this weekend, but whatever. Wouldn't be surprised to see the 0z suite come in amped and West yielding precip type concerns even in the nearby NW burbs causing panic in this subforum. Euro, while nice, has been consistently ticking up surface temps around I95 past several runs. Climo could rear its ugly head. Not sure if there would be panic per se....disappointment for sure, but it will be the first day of spring after all. Personally I'd love to shovel some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Srefs are more wet than white fwiw. Slp hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Lol... Commenting on those few who really just wanted to write this one off from the get-go... living in these parts for nearly 60 years I can count on my hands and one foot when that hasn't been the case... Having said that, I have and continue to believe that this one will be significant (6"+) for many on this board!! Do you remember March 1958 or March 1962? I've been "feeling" this one too, although there could be some wishful thinking involved ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ralph, i don't see any basis for why you think the storm is more amped and West at 00z unless you are using the ggem as guidance which overamps every coastal storm. Thermal profiles of the srefs at this range? Come on now... I'm not saying that this isn't going to happen but the more amped and West(meaning warmer) seems based on wishcasting than forecasting unless you care to share why you think that is the case. I mean the post before you were saying how every model closes off the 500mb low in the midwest resulting in just light snow and further east, now you think it will be amped and West? I get tempering expectations but no offense you are coming off as posting negative thoughts to just be negative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ralph, i don't see any basis for why you think the storm is more amped and West at 00z unless you are using the ggem as guidance which overamps every coastal storm. Thermal profiles of the srefs at this range? Come on now... I'm not saying that this isn't going to happen but the more amped and West(meaning warmer) seems based on wishcasting than forecasting unless you care to share why you think that is the case. I mean the post before you were saying how every model closes off the 500mb low in the midwest resulting in just light snow and further east, now you think it will be amped and West? I get tempering expectations but no offense you are coming off as posting negative thoughts to just be negative...72 hrs ago give or take, majority of guidance were inside runners or slp literally right on the coast with rain I95 and immediate burbs, central PA and upstate snows. Within 1 suite, for some unknown reason, the models did a 180 and were suppressed and ots. They have been slowly ticking and trending N and W since then. Perhaps they overcompensated for some data ingestion error or lack of data in a void zone when they jumped ots, but they have been correcting N and W slowly ever since. I might be completely wrong and maybe this case is different but I have seen this countless times over the years. The models at 6 days or so show a solution, they jump to an extreme or lose the storm at 4-5 days, then start trending back to that original solution. Whether or not they get back to those day 6 solutions showing a storm right on the coast or inside runner is tdb, but I have my hesitations regarding this threat being a major snow maker (6"+) along I95 in our neck of the woods. Certainly not posting just to be negative as you accused. Sorry if it came off that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I mean the post before you were saying how every model closes off the 500mb low in the midwest resulting in just light snow and further east, now you think it will be amped and West?Please see my post again you are referencing. I never stated whatsoever that "every model closes off the 500mb low in the midwest". I said there is a handful of guidance suggesting this. Big difference. Not sure why exactly you coming at me in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Do you remember March 1958 or March 1962? I've been "feeling" this one too, although there could be some wishful thinking involved ...A bit too young for those two years but I do always love and appreciate your thoughts...What's our squirrel feeling!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ralph- you do this with every potential big storm. Like the rest of us, I'm sure you want this to turn out as a major snow event. We can't help it. You just think of every way the storm can't materialize hoping it will lessen the disappointment should that happen. We all probably do the same thing, I know I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Good if it's tugged. Me and Steve need a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 A bit too young for those two years but I do always love and appreciate your thoughts... What's our squirrel feeling!? He's feeling it - been working overtime picking up peanuts the last couple of days, 2 at a time even. I was a bit young for 1958 but I do remember 1962. That was earlier in the month though, March 9th or so I think. Started as rain in the evening, changed to snow overnight, went off to school the next morning with the wind howling in the trees and 2" of wet snow on the ground. Came home early (~1 pm) to about 10" of wind driven snow with 30-40 mph winds, best drifts I've seen from wind during a storm. Nice. Did a lot of damage at the shore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ralph- you do this with every potential big storm. Like the rest of us, I'm sure you want this to turn out as a major snow event. We can't help it. You just think of every way the storm can't materialize hoping it will lessen the disappointment should that happen. We all probably do the same thing, I know I do. I think this is reasonably fair as Ralph clearly loves snow and certainly understands his meteorology... I need to add there are one or two others here who occasionally post just to be pains in the ass by refuting anything related to a potential snow event. I truly don't get why they bother as this is a snow lovers and extreme weather lovers board... Where else can we possibly find folks who share our crazy passion!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 He's feeling it - been working overtime picking up peanuts the last couple of days, 2 at a time even. I was a bit young for 1958 but I do remember 1962. That was earlier in the month though, March 9th or so I think. Started as rain in the evening, changed to snow overnight, went off to school the next morning with the wind howling in the trees and 2" of wet snow on the ground. Came home early (~1 pm) to about 10" of wind driven snow with 30-40 mph winds, best drifts I've seen from wind during a storm. Nice. Did a lot of damage at the shore though. Good job mr squirrel...Childhood memories are so cool and those of snow are the best!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Please see my post again you are referencing. I never stated whatsoever that "every model closes off the 500mb low in the midwest". I said there is a handful of guidance suggesting this. Big difference. Not sure why exactly you coming at me in the first place? Im not coming at you but you stated the Euro was pretty much on its own regarding the 500mb low as a reason to be concerned, which to me comes off as you thinking that the other guidance hints at the storm shifting East. Then the very next post you stated that you think the 00z suite will be more amped and west(warm). Your two posts contradicted themselves but gave a negative view either way that's why I said it. And the model trends you mentioned above have certainly not been the case at all this year and is pretty weak reasoning as to why you think it will be amped imo. But again go back and read your two posts, you contradict yourself on how you think this goes wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 NAM is half way to Bermuda and wants to vacationIs it possible to "vacation" if you've never worked?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam came in further west and slower. Trough sharpened up earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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