zenmsav6810 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Models show consistent support for a SECS during March 20th time period. So far the ECM and Ukie have been very bullish on delivering significant late season snow across the most of the E PA and NJ. The ukie setup is close to ideal boasting a well placed high pressure and very deep secondary low. This in contrast to the GFS and GEM which keep the storm track far SE for most of the forecast area. Can we squeak out above average season snowfall? Stay tune for an epic late season model showdown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12z GFS 3" ABE 7.8" PHL 10.5 ACY Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12z GFS 3" ABE 7.8" PHL 10.5 ACY Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk The all familiar gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12z GFS 3" ABE 7.8" PHL 10.5 ACY Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk based on 10:1 ratio's? thinking it will be more like 7 or 8-1 this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 CRAS is about 24 hours slower and wants to consolidate everything into on monster slp Sunday night and Monday. Extrapolated based on 500mb would be a big hit post 84 hrs. Of course this isnt a great model per se but glad to see it has the storm. When it fails to show something when all other models do is usually a huge red flag and usually turns out correct. With that said, seems we are in a good spot right now....just timing discrepancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 UKMET track is a rock, confidence increasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 UKMET track is a rock, confidence increasingYep, looks like merely timing issues now. Saturday night storm start time to early Monday AM start time is the range. I think we want the later start to allow cold air to settle in completely. The models showing early start time/faster solutions look to start as rain or taint with several hours wasted. I am pulling for a Sunday evening start time but that might just be wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I think this will catch a few people on their heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 ggem really hugs the coast and brings rain into our area. Hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 ggem really hugs the coast and brings rain into our area. Hope not.Ggem ensemble mean is right where we want it BUT there is a significant cluster right along the coastal plain in terms of slp placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ggem ensemble mean is right where we want it BUT there is a significant cluster right along the coastal plain in terms of slp placement. Good to hear, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 From MA forum, sounds a tad faster which we don't want.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Crushed SE PA on the Euro. All is well. Temps lows 30s at surface. Weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Per MA forum (Ian).."wettest run yet"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 From MA forum, sounds a tad faster which we don't want.. Works out OK because the HP is in better placement as the trof pulls out prior to onset. Thats one way a faster solution can work for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Crushed SE PA on the Euro. All is well. Temps lows 30s at surface. Weenie run. What did it do out my way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 ggem really hugs the coast and brings rain into our area. Hope not. ggem has been all over the place for several runs. it's been hot garbage with this system. i'd ignore it going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Euro has convinced me to dig out the snowblower from the shed "just in case". I thought we were done with this chit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Euro has convinced me to dig out the snowblower from the shed "just in case". I thought we were done with this chit Last weekend I was planning to put mine back as well. I stood behind it and thought another week is not going to hurt anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 Euro is a total crush job . qpf looks fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Euro is a total crush job . qpf looks fantastic. Any maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 anyone have a snow map for the euro or can post some snow totals for select locations? I'm at work so I can't access it. Philly, Trenton, Allentown, Quakertown, Atlantic City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 anyone have a snow map for the euro or can post some snow totals for select locations? I'm at work so I can't access it. Philly, Trenton, Allentown, Quakertown, Atlantic City?here you go bud. Huge hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 ECM is big dog, mother of god, marchageddon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 here you go bud. Huge hit for us. image.jpeg thank you good sir! one word, WOW! would be a historic late march snow storm 8-12+ region wide. hell I'd be ecstatic if we even get half of that. we just need to hope that it doesn't amplify too quickly and shift it west bringing in warmer temps for the coastal plain. only areas that don't do well are coastal south jersey but honestly that area is toast this time of the year no matter what usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Luck of the irish 13" for SEPA couldn't make this stuff up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 thank you good sir! one word, WOW! would be a historic late march snow storm 8-12+ region wide. hell I'd be ecstatic if we even get half of that. we just need to hope that it doesn't amplify too quickly and shift it west bringing in warmer temps for the coastal plain. only areas that don't do well are coastal south jersey but honestly that area is toast this time of the year no matter what usually.I'd be ecstatic if this were mid January and not late March. Saving grace is it will melt within a couple of days as we approach the 60s again. I will admit, with my Magnolia approaching full bloom, it should make for some scenic photo opportunities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Euro has convinced me to dig out the snowblower from the shed "just in case". I thought we were done with this chit Well mine wouldn't start in the blizzard, put new carb on, still doesn't start, screw it. Temps back toward 60 by Wednesday will make short work of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'd be ecstatic if this were mid January and not late March. Saving grace is it will melt within a couple of days as we approach the 60s again. I will admit, with my Magnolia approaching full bloom, it should make for some scenic photo opportunities! I'll take snow all through March since winter is so short nowadays. If we do get 12"', it will be a fun way to end winter while going back to spring before long. I admit I am ready for any sustained cold to end, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Definite power issues if those amounts were to verify. Anything over 4 inches starts to bring down tree limbs when the snow is this wet. Only saving grace is no leaves on the trees yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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