IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Precip by Saturday afternoon is probably 75-100 miles further North, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 The GFS is shifting around again. ULL over Iowa Saturday morning instead of Northern IL.That's a good sign I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 The ridge out West is holding stronger, the ULL energy is stronger. Great signs all around through 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Flurries or light snow approaching the area by Midnight Sunday morning. How bout that half marathon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS speeds it up too much. Bulk of storm is Sunday in the middle of the day. Bad unless the storm is very strong, which it isn't on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Light to moderate snows for NJ, NYC and LI Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Trough going negative at hour 78, and this will explode now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Storm barely moving all day Sunday with light to moderate precip overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 This is just the GFS being stupid again and not fully bringing the parts together the way the superior Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS speeds it up too much. Bulk of storm is Sunday in the middle of the day. Bad unless the storm is very strong, which it isn't on the GFS. It's still a 4-8" event away from the concrete jungles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Wtf is the gfs doing? Its still too fast. It's leaning towards the euro though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 2-4" well inland (NE PA, NW NJ, Orange County) 3-6" for the rest of NNJ and SE NY 4-8" SE of NYC away from the concrete jungles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I really wouldn't worry too much about this run. Good trends at H5 again. Need the trough to go negative tilt six hours sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Much improved run for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Strange run. Thought she was going to blow up after hour 78 hours. Surface might be lagging behind with the improved H5 levels. At the very least its starting to lean towards a more EURO solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Much improved run for everyone AG3's comment about it not sticking is really only applicable for places without a lot of grass, like the inner city. The GFS has surface temps in the 20's just inland, where it will have no trouble sticking as long as the actual CCB develops like the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 If the Euro holds then the gfs is likely playing catchup. There's a disconnect between the upper levels and surface. Also the troughs a bit broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Looks like 12z UKMET came a little more east away from the warmer scenario. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=96&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Looks like 12z UKMET came a little more east away from the warmer scenario. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=96&carte=1021 Still a bomb? Sorry on mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Looks like 12z UKMET came a little more east away from the warmer scenario. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=96&carte=1021 I'm curious how you can tell anything from that graphic at all. I nearly broke my neck just trying to see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I'm curious how you can tell anything from that graphic at all. I nearly broke my neck just trying to see what it shows. 96 hrs is east of Boston so it probably passed over the BM near CC instead of across the Twin Forks. So close to what the 0z Euro had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Looking a lot colder now. My forecast high is 34° on Sunday, even yesterday it was 40°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ggem brings this in early Sunday morning. Looks warm so far outside the Poconos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GGEM is way tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 What a bomb on the GGEM. That's the new NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Ggem brings this in early Sunday morning. Looks warm so far outside the Poconos That's because it sends the ULL to about Erie, PA before the transfer fully occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Bomb on the ggem but it's going to NYC so it's a upstate Ny storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GGEM is 991mb on the boardwalk in Wildwood at 00z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 00z Monday 994 over acy central pa and upstate NY crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Bomb on the ggem but it's going to NYC so it's a upstate Ny storm Those thermal profiles aren't the most accurate. Have to look at the rest of the profile, but you have very intense precip overhead with the developing CCB so you'll have some dynamic cooling in there. Would think the NW half of this subforum would at least flip to snow for the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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