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Possible 3/20-3/21 Coastal Storm


Zelocita Weather

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The city must have money to burn. They are pre salting the side streets here in Brooklyn. It's 42 degrees lol

Snow88 radioed into the Dept of Sanitation requesting it after :snowing:  after he saw the 18Z Nam - plows also on standby

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Guest Pamela

Actually it's much different. 12z was up to a few inches for NYC. 18z is less than 1 inch, unfortunately

 

Nice to see you WG...the storm appears to be fizzling; looks like an inch in NYC...and maybe up to 3 inches on Long Island.   In other words, 42 pages for what amounts to practically a non-event.

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NWS in Philly just put out an update at 5:55 pm, below. Still think the Turnpike may be the dividing line between minimal snow and some snow with <1" likely a bit west of the Turnpike and 1-2" likely along and just east of the Turnpike and 3" or more possible 15-25 miles east of the TPK. Still thinking we get 2" at my house on the colder surfaces. We'll see I guess. Would be amazed, though, if any snow is left after tomorrow afternoon. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
555 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FASTER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS DELAWARE AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. WE ARE GETTING
REPORTS OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN SOME SLEET EARLIER. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW JERSEY ESPECIALLY TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW TO START THEN
MORE OF A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN. THE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX
LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AWHILE LONGER BEFORE A TRANSITION TO MORE
SNOW AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE WEATHER GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING BETTER. A NEW SNOW MAP HAS ALSO
BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB. TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AND WINDS WERE
ALSO TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THEN SOME BLENDING
IN OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS DONE.

THE HRRR RAMPS THINGS UP BETWEEN ABOUT 03Z AND 06Z WITH THE GREATEST
AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHCS ARE THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. THERE LOOKS TO BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE WEST, BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO EXACTLY
WHERE THAT CUTOFF WILL BE. WE DO NOTE THAT THE DEW POINTS ARE MUCH
MUCH LOWER ATTM THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE GOES. AS AN EXAMPLE
AT 21Z, THE DEW POINT AT MOUNT POCONO WAS 3F WHILE AT GEORGETOWN
IT WAS 38F.

WITH NATURAL DIURNAL COOLING, A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS CHANGE WILL BE ENHANCED WHERE PRECIP COMES
DOWN HEAVIEST, WHICH HAS THE BEST CHC OF OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AS IS, WITH
THESE AREAS HAVING THE GREATEST CHC OF OBTAINING THE HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS. THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON NON-PAVED
SURFACES, HOWEVER SOME BANDING LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME AND
THIS IS WHEN AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS CAN OCCUR. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING SNOW AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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Guest Pamela

HRRR getting worse and worse. Now barely a half inch for NYC. Does this model tend to be accurate? In just a few hours it has gone from 2.5 to a half inch. Quite a change. 

 

In the words of the immortal Michael Ray Richardson, "The ship be sinkin'"

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Nice to see you WG...the storm appears to be fizzling; looks like an inch in NYC...and maybe up to 3 inches on Long Island. In other words, 42 pages for what amounts to practically a non-event.

Hey Pam ! I'd be happy to see an inch from this one. Good luck out on the island. I think there is still the chance of seeing 3-6" there. I've actually had just over 500" of modeled snowfall this year, which is probably even more than east of Lake Ontario!!

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Guest Pamela

All I needed was 3 for average. Just wasnt meant to be.

 

If the models really did not mean it

I wish that they had told us so...

Why do they keep us hangin' on these promises

If there's Hell below...

 

Where is the love?

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Guest Pamela

Not sure if this was mentioned...but the18z GFS was very snowy out over Long Island...that's 6 inches + in parts...

post-747-0-32115200-1458527181_thumb.gif

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Nice to see you WG...the storm appears to be fizzling; looks like an inch in NYC...and maybe up to 3 inches on Long Island.   In other words, 42 pages for what amounts to practically a non-event.

Yes..it should be pinned?

Damn  I think i'm in the dry slot now.

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