UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 What's RGEM spit out for the island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I'm expecting 8-12 flakes up here lolSame, LI wins again. This time in late March. Makes zero sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 One thing I can never understand is why some choose to completely ignore the models if they make changes to a less snowy solution, sometimes major changes, inside 24 hours. I am sure that if the 12z EURO came in showing 4-8" for all of us, we would NOT ignore it. So then, why do we choose to ignore models that were showing 4-8" and now show close to nothing? As we get closer to the event, the models have a much better chance of verifying. Sure, nowcasting and radar watching is fun (when a storm seems to be locked in), but aren't the models technically nowcasting as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Sifting through the past data for snowstorms that occurred March 20 or later, the idea that it was more likely than not that NYC would not reach 4" or more snow seems to be supported beyond climatology. When one includes storms that brought 4" or more snow one or more of the following cities: Boston, Islip, or New York City, the statistics were as follows: Boston: 4" or More: Islip: 33% cases with 4" or more (1984-2015) New York City: 17% with 4" or more (1950-2015) Islip: 4" or More: Boston: 50% cases with 4" or more (1984-2015) New York City: 25% cases with 4" or more (1984-2015) New York City: 4" or More: Boston: 22% with 4" or more (1950-2015) Islip: 25% with 4" or more (1984-2015) During Islip's period of record, which began in 1984, there were no cases where Boston, Islip, and New York City all picked up 4" or more snow. Considering that there was fairly high confidence that Boston would pick up 4" or more snow based on consistency with the guidance and the 500 mb pattern (key features were somewhat east of the March 22, 1998 case favoring eastern areas), it was much more likely that Islip would have a chance at 4" or more snow than New York City. Currently, that's where things stand. My guess is that, even allowing for some small shifts in the modeling, one will probably see: Boston: 6"-10" Bridgeport: 1"-3" Islip: 3"-6" New York City: 1"-3" Newark: 0.5"-1.5" Providence: 4"-8" Westhampton: 4"-8" White Plains: 1" or less Worcester: 6"-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 What's RGEM spit out for the island? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Rgem still gives nyc 2-3 inches and LI more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Sounds like the gfs is having issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Don, thanks again for all of the useful information. Do you know when the last time Philly, New York, And Boston have all seen 4" or more from the same storm in late March? Doesn't seem like something that would be extremely uncommon, but looking at this data, it sure seems like it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Don, thanks again for all of the useful information. Do you know when the last time Philly, New York, And Boston have all seen 4" or more from the same storm in late March? Doesn't seem like something that would be extremely uncommon, but looking at this data, it sure seems like it is! From 1950-2015 there were no such cases where all three cities received 4" or more of snow. The last such occurrence was April 8-10, 1917: Boston: 9.1" New York City: 6.5" Philadelphia: 7.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 April 1915 had a big storm along the coast... 1915... http://chroniclingam...-04/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-05/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspap...image/54333374/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/54333375 http://bklyn.newspap...image/54333396/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/54333401 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Winter storm regis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 April 1915 had a big storm along the coast... 1915... http://chroniclingam...-04/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-05/ed-1/seq-1/ http://bklyn.newspap...image/54333374/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/54333375 http://bklyn.newspap...image/54333396/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/54333401 That storm also brought 4" or more to Philadelphia, New York, and Boston. Boston: 6.1" New York City: 10.2" Philadelphia: 19.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Winter storm regis Philbin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z GGEM certainly drier for the NYC area. 1-2" . No one gets over 3" for the most part except for Southern NJ and Eastern Maine, weak weak storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The windshield wiper has swung today to wipe out the last of our hopes for meaningful accumulations. NYC u will get an inch and like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 On to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GFS FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GFS FTW It still got owned, it never even showed an event this big at any point in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GFS will be running in about a half hour it looks like, Analysis just started and it's normally a half hour later when products get out out. NYC certainly might not get even an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The Ukie is a flurryfest NW of NYC. Say goodnight Gracie.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The Ukie is a flurryfest NW of NYC. Say goodnight Gracie.... The Ukie has really backed off the last 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 latest OPC surface cast Interesting 996mb 8:00am EDT on the BM that would be slower and stronger if this prog is correct While I do think you post some very informative stuff on here, I think its time to give up on this one. Is it possible this overperforms, sure, but I wouldn't bet the ranch on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Just an FYI. I started a separate obs thread for the expect snowfall today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z GFS finally out and not bad. 3" to 4" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z GFS finally out and not bad. 3" to 4" for NYC. It's never easy - 10-12 hours before significant precip is supposed to start and we have wide model variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 How do the upper levels look like so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 NCEP says the 12Z GFS is now running about 2 hours late. But, word of caution: no soundings or airplane data made it into this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Sun is out here. Partly Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Just got to the cape, hopefully the rgem is correct lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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