UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Just not seeing big snows in Edison Nj off the gfs. Few slushy inches on Long Island Eastern Long Island may see low end warning snow on GFS It's a wrap IMO guys NW of NYC- grassy dusting North of 84- 0" NYC- 1-2 << being generous so I don't get attacked Western Long Island 2-4 Central Long Island- 3-5 Eastern Long Island 4-7+ << depending on if CCB sets up I'm pretty excited I'm actually gonna finally see a storm this year, not gonna be the same cause it's not my house, but 1st one of the year and it's in March lmao.. Pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 One inch for the city on the GFS. That's like zero. look on the bright side the totals could be even less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 One inch for the city on the GFS. That's like zero. i dont think anyone on here actually expects a snowstorm in Manhattan tomorrow...i hope most people can see that was never on the table. Eastern Queens has the best shot of seeing anything from this system, out by Douglaston and Cunningham Park. I could see some slushy accumulations there. But the urban areas have no shot, and they never really did. So we can stop posting about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Looked at 18z real quick. Took a significant step in the wrong direction, lol.... Nam trends better, GFS is worse.. Can't make it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Bought into those crappy euro runs a couple days ago. Now it looks like I won't even get a inch. Laughing stock of a winter besides the blizzard, and yes I understand this would have been a bonus. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Bought into those crappy euro runs a couple days ago. Now it looks like I won't even get a inch. Laughing stock of a winter besides the blizzard, and yes I understand this would have been a bonus. Night. I can't wait for everyone to hug the GGEM when it prints out a blizzard in 5 min.. Cause you know it's gonna lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 One inch for the city on the GFS. That's like zero. The GFS snow map shows closer to 2 for NYC. Remember that since it falls at night, all of it will accumulate on colder surfaces at least. We're catching a break that it's not during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I can't wait for everyone to hug the GGEM when it prints out a blizzard in 5 min.. Cause you know it's gonna lmao Yeah, and then the UKMET will probably help back it up. Then we will all be happy again until the Euro completely destroys any remaining hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The GFS snow map shows closer to 2 for NYC. Remember that since it falls at night, all of it will accumulate on colder surfaces at least. We're catching a break that it's not during the day. Dude, GFS NYC is .2"........ That falls over like a 6-8 hour period.... NO way that's accumulating, a dusting on cars? And grass? Yea probably.. But it's white rain.. Precip is just WAY to light... Your melting process rates alone wouldn't support 2" of snow on .2 LE over an 8hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Bought into those crappy euro runs a couple days ago. Now it looks like I won't even get a inch. Laughing stock of a winter besides the blizzard, and yes I understand this would have been a bonus. Night. Huh? There is not 1 model right now that shows Union County getting less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Dude..come on. You know the NAM is brutal with QPF. This is a horrific post. The nam is fine in situations like this. We are not dealing with a juiced up costal storm. You have been awful today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Dude, GFS NYC is .2"........ That falls over like a 6-8 hour period.... NO way that's accumulating, a dusting on cars? And grass? Yea probably.. But it's white rain.. Precip is just WAY to light... Your melting process rates alone wouldn't support 2" of snow on .2 LE over an 8hr period If the temp is down to 32 and there is no sun angle to deal with, I don't see why light snow wouldn't accumulate on colder surfaces. GFS shows the least precip anyway. Hopefully NAM is more accurate. RGEM was a little better than GFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I can't wait for everyone to hug the GGEM when it prints out a blizzard in 5 min.. Cause you know it's gonna lmao Ya never know lol.....I actually don't think it's going to this time around.. My guess is that the heavy band it has been showing NW of NYC will be about 75-100 miles further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 If the temp is down to 32 and there is no sun angle to deal with, I don't see why light snow wouldn't accumulate on colder surfaces. GFS shows the least precip anyway. Hopefully NAM is more accurate. RGEM was a little better than GFS too. Because we were close to 70 yesterday and surface temps are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 If the temp is down to 32 and there is no sun angle to deal with, I don't see why light snow wouldn't accumulate on colder surfaces. GFS shows the least precip anyway. Hopefully NAM is more accurate. RGEM was a little better than GFS too. Because the only surfaces that are gonna be cold enough to accumulate .2" over 8hrs is an ice cold car... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GGEM still has a pretty expansive precip shield which will help, looks better than GFS for sure so far but I don't think it's looking anything like 12z printed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Because we were close to 70 yesterday and surface temps are warm. 70°? Not around here. Yesterday was chilly, cloudy, and windy, with on and off showers. Anyway Thunder, you need decent rates in order to get a snow layer down. It's just not cold enough for light snow to get the job done because it will keep melting on contact. Cars may be an exception like UlsterCountySnowz said. On the other hand, if it was January or February and really cold, then yeah, you can get little sugar coatings to accumulate, as I've seen plenty of times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Ggem still very snowy for NYC and Li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GGEM and GFS are nearly identical at 500, trough orientation and everything thru hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 ggem way better than gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Ggem still very snowy for NYC and Li It's an outlier as of now, no other support with that expansive of a shield, especially Concidering how similar GFS and GGEM are at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 People worry about the sun angle way too much. This storm will be coming at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The GGEM is faster and drier. Still a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 It's an outlier as of now, no other support with that expansive of a shield, especially Concidering how similar GFS and GGEM are at 500mb Gfs is an outlier right now showing very little. Who knows with these models. Gfs could be a hit at 6z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 People worry about the sun angle way too much. This storm will be coming at night. Nobody's worrying about sun angle.. The worry, is the fact that .15 falls over a 4-6 hour period... Not accumulating with rates that light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 How much QPF on the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 How much QPF on the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GGEM gives NYC about 3-5 inches. Less than 12z but still alright. I guess... I certainly wouldn't be comfortable banking on a GGEM coupe Nam and GGEM are similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 GGEM gives NYC about 3-5 inches. Less than 12z but still alright. Nam and GGEM are similiar Not hi res.. Hi res looks like GFS, and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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