Morris Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Eps might have been a hair west of a bm track. A decent amount of members giving the NW crew the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Eps might have been a hair west of a bm track. A decent amount of members giving the NW crew the most snow. Control was also west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Eps might have been a hair west of a bm track. A decent amount of members giving the NW crew the most snow. That's still up in the air, but if anyone is owed this season and overdo it's us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Almost has a frontal look to these instead of a wrapped up coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Eps might have been a hair west of a bm track. A decent amount of members giving the NW crew the most snow. It's about time, though I doubt it holds this way for another four days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 It's about time, though I doubt it holds this way for another four days.Remember when this was progged right along the coast or even an inside runner by guidance just 48 hours or so ago? Maybe that idea isnt garbage based on the shifts West we seem to be seeing on recent guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Isn't NAM out yet guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Isn't NAM out yet guys? Running now. Im up to hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Nam has several hours of moderate snow, but it's a mess... Def not the wound up storm the euro and eps show Would be a 3-6 type deal for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 The NAM is still out of range. Wait until Friday night before it becomes useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Nam has several hours of moderate snow, but it's a mess... Def not the wound up storm the euro and eps showSo QPF wise this is Gfs like? 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 So QPF wise this is Gfs like? 2-4? More or less, 3-6ish... Wouldn't bother this far out anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 NAM is only 2-3 inches. Weak stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 More or less, 3-6ish... Wouldn't bother this far out anyway Nothing near 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Nothing near 6. Ur looking too far into it, was a general statement. and per the nam, parts of Rockland and NNJ are 5", so I guess your correct, I guess I shoulda said 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Nothing near 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 NAM is only 2-3 inches. Weak stuff. That's a lock NAM snowfall at 84 hours - otherwise - remember how useful the snow maps were for the Blizzard 3 plus days out in the middle of winter - many more variables to consider that would determine total snowfall in any given location during the last half of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 NAM has the CCB over NYC and LI at hour 84. It's not over for the coast at that hour and it occurs as the sun is setting and at night. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 It's at least 36 hours too early for the NAM If you want to use the NAM for something at this range, it argues an OTS solution. The trough is still positive at the end of the run, not a good sign for a model that's usually over amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 It's at least 36 hours too early for the NAM If you want to use the NAM for something at this range, it argues an OTS solution. The trough is still positive at the end of the run, not a good sign for a model that's usually over amped. Nam wasnt out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 It's at least 36 hours too early for the NAM If you want to use the NAM for something at this range, it argues an OTS solution. The trough is still positive at the end of the run, not a good sign for a model that's usually over amped. This winter it hasn't been over amped for the most part on systems late in the period. I'm not sure what the reason is but its deviated from that bias often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Nam wasnt out to sea That's not what I said. The NAM argues for an OTS solution when you consider the bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 This winter it hasn't been over amped for the most part on systems late in the period. I'm not sure what the reason is but its deviated from that bias often Not only is the trough still positive at that hour, but the energy dropping down the backside of the trough is to slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Everyone buckle your seat belts. GFS has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Not only is the trough still positive at that hour, but the energy dropping down the backside of the trough is to slow. Every model at some point, even the Euro has shown a somewhat sloppy evolution to this system. The Euro hasn't for the last few runs but it was for a time before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Every model at some point, even the Euro has shown a somewhat sloppy evolution to this system. The Euro hasn't for the last few runs but it was for a time before that If you factor in the model with the progressive bias, then this argues for a system right on the coast, but then again, it was the furthest NW with the most recent big miss, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 The 06z GEFS mean also took quite a significant shift SE from the 00z run. The fact that you have the Euro OP and EPS on board along with the UKMET increases confidence, but you have the GFS/GEFS/GGEM/NAVGEM/NAM all showing either an OTS or weak solution. This threat definitely isn't a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 The GFS is shifting around again. ULL over Iowa Saturday morning instead of Northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Trough is sharper, and the confluence over New England is weaker and further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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