Doorman Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 SPC RAP for 2:00am EDT Sunday Two lows progged and their locations http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19 Nowcast Time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Point is its difficult. .sure it can happens but alot can go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 That was a Miller A with much colder temps.Thunder and lightening and temps fell to 19 next morning It was actually more a Miller B, it was not a classic one either. The setup was very close to 2/8/13. NYC almost nearly missed another big snow just a few days after. I think the system tracked a bit too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Last year we had 6 inches Colts Neck , It fell during the DAY the roads were all snow covered . KNYC splits 3/20/15 38 29 Splits on EURO hi res 37/31 Here is a recap of the storm from last year . As of 8 AM, the coastal low pressure which developed offshore last night continues to slowly deepen with a minimum pressure near 1004 hPa. The low is located well southeast of Cape Cod and will continue to deepen over the next day as it tracks towards Nova Scotia. Following yesterday afternoon’s update, snow intensified on the back end of the system with widespread moderate to heavy snow for most places, but generally tapered off by 8-10 PM with scattered freezing drizzle and snow showers persisting east of NYC overnight. A separate vorticity maximum approaching from the Great Lakes is beginning to interact with this system offshore, which will eventually initiate rapid deepening of the low pressure offshore, although the redeveloped precipitation shield is more robust than modeled, with widespread light to moderate snow persisting over Long Island and Connecticut. This snow will generally taper off towards 11 AM to 12 PM, although may not accumulate to much as temperatures continue to rise and snowfall rates may not be intense enough to offset the melting rate. Based on preliminary storm reports, snow totals so far are within the 2 to 4 inch range over southeast NY, eastern CT and interior CT, which is near to slightly below the forecast amounts; snow totals were higher than forecast over central NJ into Long Island and coastal Fairfield county, where snow accumulations were generally in the 4.5 to 7 inch range. Totals were near the forecast amounts over northern NJ and NYC, with 3 to 5 inches. Look familiar PB GFI, on 19 Mar 2015 - 2:07 PM, said: Euro Hour 36 KNYC 850 -2 925 - 2 BL 30 .6 LI Same mid level BL 31 onto LONG ISLAND .6 MC 850`s -2 925 -1 BL 32 .8 Guess who winterwarlock, on 19 Mar 2015 - 10:46 PM, said: That was a really nice storm. Hopefully, the 0z guidance will hold or even improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 That was a really nice storm. Hopefully, the 0z guidance will hold or even improve. That it was Don. Started out as a rain snow mix, and then transferred to all snow. It took awhile to accumulate on the grassy and colder surfaces, but it did. 3.9 inches total. Fell during the daylight hours. First day of Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 That was a really nice storm. Hopefully, the 0z guidance will hold or even improve. Don , My point is the guidance last year was honing in on .75 , which is what we are seeing tonight . The 850s last year 36 hours out were progged at -2 . The 850s with this one are forecast to be between - 3 to - 7 The BL 36 hours out last year the BL was forecast to get to 32 / 31 . under those rates it got to 29 , we are in the same spot here . Close to 5 fell at KNYC where .6 was forecast and 6 to 7 fell where .8 was forecast in CNJ/LI . The difference here is this will fall at night , last year was during the day . So I expect if .75 does actually happen ( that`s the key here ) then 5 to 7 would fall and stick . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 That it was Don. Started out as a rain snow mix, and then transferred to all snow. It took awhile to accumulate on the grassy and colder surfaces, but it did. 3.9 inches total. Fell during the daylight hours. First day of Spring. And 24 hours later Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 a small reminder WPC scenario low track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 And 24 hours later Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Oh yeah, it melted quickly for sure. But, it was still awesome to watch, especially during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 That it was Don. Started out as a rain snow mix, and then transferred to all snow. It took awhile to accumulate on the grassy and colder surfaces, but it did. 3.9 inches total. Fell during the daylight hours. First day of Spring. A photo from early evening on March 20, 2015: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 A photo from early evening on March 20, 2015: Very nice Don. I didn't take any photos for some reason, probably because that was a busy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Don , My point is the guidance last year was honing in on .75 , which is what we are seeing tonight . The 850s last year 36 hours out were progged at -2 . The 850s with this one are forecast to be between - 3 to - 7 The BL 36 hours out last year the BL was forecast to get to 32 / 31 . under those rates it got to 29 , we are in the same spot here . Close to 5 fell at KNYC where .6 was forecast and 6 to 7 fell where .8 was forecast in CNJ/LI . The difference here is this will fall at night , last year was during the day . So I expect if .75 does actually happen ( that`s the key here ) then 5 to 7 would fall and stick . It certainly bears watching and the comparison is a very good one. I'm looking forward to the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 And 24 hours later Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Great photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 PWV 1.3 max on the radar screen lets see how far north it travels in the next 24 my vibe says this system will over perform for much of the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 NASA has this experimental model GMAO http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/forecasts/ fp.6precs.sfc.039.nam.png Looks a bit east of most of the guidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Looks a bit east of most of the guidence.Yup.Still feel not much west of the city Going to Edison or fords just for the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Sref's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Sref's? Give it another 10-15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Give it another 10-15 minutes.its out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Srefs look even more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Sref's? I think in about 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Half inch line to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 SREFS are good. .25 line into the HV .50 Philly to Trenton to Bergen County into 75 % of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Yup. Still feel not much west of the city Going to Edison or fords just for the storm We get it. How many times do you need to post the same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 18z NAVGEM says 1.0" LE for most of central/southern jersey through NYC, and Long Island, .5 line makes its as far as I-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 18z JMA says 1.0" LE for most of central/southern jersey through NYC, and Long Island, .5 line makes its as far as I-84 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 I'm going with 2-4" NW of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 The 1 inch line is over the Montauk lighthouse. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Nevermind I was looking at 12z JMA I meant NAVGEM sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2016 Share Posted March 20, 2016 Nevermind I was looking at 12z I meant NAVGEM sorry Yeh I saw that before. I was waiting for AG to post it. It's similar to the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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