Possible 3/20-3/21 Coastal Storm

[PB GFI]

Goes to this 

 

 

[PB GFI]

18z GEFS vs 12z GEFS 

 

 

[Jason WX]

00z will be exciting.

[Blizzardo]

Point 1 is Totally irrelevant . Not sure why you would ever think that would factor into what happens 24 to 36 hours later .

You will wet bulb as those colder mid level get dragged to the surface quickly. That`s not light precip .

The Euro is below 32 at both hour 42 and 48 when the heavier precip moves in .

The BL will likely be between 30 and 31 . That is cold enough .

Sorry but you are wrong. Point 1 is absolutely a factor. It affects ground temperatures big time! And warm ground temps will scrub qpf before it begins to accumulate and still while it accumulates. Alot of you fail to realize this..

Its the same effect as the temperature days prior is 28 for the high and the ground gets a hard freeze. Immediate stickage and accumulation.

[EastonSN+]

GEFS mean amped up and has .75+ back to ewr and .5+ to western nj

Now that is what I was waiting for.

[sferic]

Sorry but you are wrong. Point 1 is absolutely a factor. It affects ground temperatures big time! And warm ground temps will scrub qpf before it begins to accumulate and still while it accumulates. Alot of you fail to realize this..

Its the same effect as the temperature days prior is 28 for the high and the ground gets a hard freeze. Immediate stickage and accumulation.

Persistance overcomes  Resistance

 

6 inches of hail has accumulated in 90 degree temperatures

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested, the last time a storm brought 4" or more snow on March 20 or later in NYC was March 20-21, 2015 when 4.5" fell. The last 6" or greater snowstorm on or after March 20, was the April 6-7, 1982 blizzard when 9.6" snow fell in New York City.

[Blizzardo]

Persistance overcomes Resistance

6 inches of hail has accumulated in degree temperatures

It does.. I agree. Just takes a good hit.

[shadowsintherain]

I remember the 9.6. That was on Easter! Fantastic storm. I was 8yo.

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[PB GFI]

Sorry but you are wrong. Point 1 is absolutely a factor. It affects ground temperatures big time! And warm ground temps will scrub qpf before it begins to accumulate and still while it accumulates. Alot of you fail to realize this..

Its the same effect as the temperature days prior is 28 for the high and the ground gets a hard freeze. Immediate stickage and accumulation.

 

 

The ground will cool very quickly . Now if you are looking for 6 inches of snow on the GSP or LIE then sure , that does not happen .

But there would be 6 inches of snow on ALL colder surfaces with .75 falling in 12 hours with secondary roads getting snow covered . 

 

If you are going to measure the runway at JFK then expect 2 but if you drop .75 in Laurel Hollow 6 + accumulates in your sleep. 

[shadowsintherain]

I vividly remember the 9.6 inches on everything but pavement.

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[sferic]

I vividly remember the 9.6 inches on everything but pavement.

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That is true, I remember the sky being so bright through the clouds too.

[shadowsintherain]

Beautiful day and big corridors of snow on the grass.

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[WintersGrasp]

I think 2-4" is a good call for the NENJ/NYC area, and 4-8" for LI. More promising storms and setups where models put out 5-10" this season have, for the most part, produced 2-4" storms in this area. All things considered, 2-4" seems like a good call. Let's say 2.5" for EWR, 3" LGA, and 5.5" ISP. Would be a great end to the season, especially with the snow falling after dark

[nyblizz44]

That is true, I remember the sky being so bright through the clouds too.

That was a Miller A with much colder temps.Thunder and lightening and temps fell to 19 next morning

[sferic]

^{In the blizzard of 1993 not far from freezing and it being only a week before tomorrow's snow, it stuck on roads did it not?}

[shadowsintherain]

That was a Miller A with much colder temps.Thunder and lightening and temps fell to 19 next morning

But I remember the day after being warm. No?

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[MJO812]

I think 2-4" is a good call for the NENJ/NYC area, and 4-8" for LI. More promising storms and setups where models put out 5-10" this season have, for the most part, produced 2-4" storms in this area. All things considered, 2-4" seems like a good call. Let's say 2.5" for EWR, 3" LGA, and 5.5" ISP. Would be a great end to the season, especially with the snow falling after dark

Thats if it doesnt trend more west.

[Jersey Shore snow]

But I remember the day after being warm. No?

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No, there was blowing snow the next day with below freezing temps and sunshine....remarkable for that time of the year.

 

Also, it was on a Tuesday so it was not Easter.   

[shadowsintherain]

I am misremembering. Maybe the snow was around into Easter. Hmm.

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[winterwarlock]

For those who are interested, the last time a storm brought 4" or more snow on March 20 or later in NYC was March 20-21, 2015 when 4.5" fell. The last 6" or greater snowstorm on or after March 20, was the April 6-7, 1982 blizzard when 9.6" snow fell in New York City.

This is a good post because it illustrates how tough it is to get good snows

The models may say one thing but I would cautious when extrapolating qpf into snowfall totals and taking weenie maps verbatim

[sferic]

_{April 19th 1983 had almost 3 inches in NYC but if I recall roads did not get snow covered.}

[winterwarlock]

The gfs is 3-4 with a 8-1 ratio for warlocks area. 6-7 if one would use 10-1

Good luck..im glad that NWS and mets factor in more to a forecast than snowmaps

[Allsnow]

This is a good post because it illustrates how tough it is to get good snows

The models may say one thing but I would cautious when extrapolating qpf into snowfall totals and taking weenie maps verbatim

The numbers I posted are a 8-1 ratio for ur backyard. They make snow maps now that factor different ratios. This is not 1997

[donsutherland1]

This is a good post because it illustrates how tough it is to get good snows

The models may say one thing but I would cautious when extrapolating qpf into snowfall totals and taking weenie maps verbatim

It's quite difficult. We'll see what the later guidance says, but I still think the City and nearby areas will more likely than not see less than 4". Parts of Long Island into New England have a better chance.

 

FWIW, below is a list of the 20 4" or greater snowstorms that occurred on or after March 20 for Boston, New York, and Philadelphia (1950-2015):

 

 

[WintersGrasp]

Nice post Don. We have models showing 4"+ of snow in Philadelphia, New York, AND Boston. Your numbers show clearly how difficult that will be to do!

[nzucker]

Boston Common also had 6" on 5/10/77 in perhaps the most incredible late season snowstorm in recent history but Logan missed out right on the water.

[wthrmn654]

Impressive turn around!

[PB GFI]

Last year we had 6 inches Colts Neck , It fell during the  DAY  the roads were all snow covered .

 

 

KNYC splits 3/20/15

38 29 

 

Splits on EURO hi res 37/31

 

Here is a recap of the storm from last year . 

As of 8 AM, the coastal low pressure which developed offshore last night continues to slowly deepen with a minimum pressure near 1004 hPa. The low is located well southeast of Cape Cod and will continue to deepen over the next day as it tracks towards Nova Scotia. Following yesterday afternoon’s update, snow intensified on the back end of the system with widespread moderate to heavy snow for most places, but generally tapered off by 8-10 PM with scattered freezing drizzle and snow showers persisting east of NYC overnight. A separate vorticity maximum approaching from the Great Lakes is beginning to interact with this system offshore, which will eventually initiate rapid deepening of the low pressure offshore, although the redeveloped precipitation shield is more robust than modeled, with widespread light to moderate snow persisting over Long Island and Connecticut. This snow will generally taper off towards 11 AM to 12 PM, although may not accumulate to much as temperatures continue to rise and snowfall rates may not be intense enough to offset the melting rate. Based on preliminary storm reports, snow totals so far are within the 2 to 4 inch range over southeast NY, eastern CT and interior CT, which is near to slightly below the forecast amounts; snow totals were higher than forecast over central NJ into Long Island and coastal Fairfield county, where snow accumulations were generally in the 4.5 to 7 inch range. Totals were near the forecast amounts over northern NJ and NYC, with 3 to 5 inches.

 

Look familiar 

 

PB GFI, on 19 Mar 2015 - 2:07 PM, said:

 

 

Euro 

Hour 36 KNYC 

850 -2 

925 - 2 

BL 30 

.6 

 

LI  Same mid level  BL 31 onto LONG ISLAND .6 

 

MC 

850`s -2 

925 -1 

BL 32 

.8

 

 

Guess who

 

winterwarlock, on 19 Mar 2015 - 10:46 PM, said:

Im going 2-4 nyc to central jersey...4 for grass but tough to measure with constant melting...mt holly says snow will stick to all surfaces in morning to early afternoon but then only colder surfaces later

 

[wthrmn654]

Last year we had 6 inches Colts Neck , It fell during the  DAY  the roads were all snow covered .

 

 

KNYC splits 3/20/15

38 29 

 

Splits on EURO hi res 37/31

 

Here is a recap of the storm from last year . 

As of 8 AM, the coastal low pressure which developed offshore last night continues to slowly deepen with a minimum pressure near 1004 hPa. The low is located well southeast of Cape Cod and will continue to deepen over the next day as it tracks towards Nova Scotia. Following yesterday afternoon’s update, snow intensified on the back end of the system with widespread moderate to heavy snow for most places, but generally tapered off by 8-10 PM with scattered freezing drizzle and snow showers persisting east of NYC overnight. A separate vorticity maximum approaching from the Great Lakes is beginning to interact with this system offshore, which will eventually initiate rapid deepening of the low pressure offshore, although the redeveloped precipitation shield is more robust than modeled, with widespread light to moderate snow persisting over Long Island and Connecticut. This snow will generally taper off towards 11 AM to 12 PM, although may not accumulate to much as temperatures continue to rise and snowfall rates may not be intense enough to offset the melting rate. Based on preliminary storm reports, snow totals so far are within the 2 to 4 inch range over southeast NY, eastern CT and interior CT, which is near to slightly below the forecast amounts; snow totals were higher than forecast over central NJ into Long Island and coastal Fairfield county, where snow accumulations were generally in the 4.5 to 7 inch range. Totals were near the forecast amounts over northern NJ and NYC, with 3 to 5 inches.

 

Look familiar 

 

PB GFI, on 19 Mar 2015 - 2:07 PM, said:

 

 

Euro 

Hour 36 KNYC 

850 -2 

925 - 2 

BL 30 

.6 

 

LI  Same mid level  BL 31 onto LONG ISLAND .6 

 

MC 

850`s -2 

925 -1 

BL 32 

.8

 

 

Guess who

 

winterwarlock, on 19 Mar 2015 - 10:46 PM, said:

School of hardnocks!