bluewave Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Hopefully, the 0z and 12z runs tomorrow continue the improvements that we have seen since yesterday. 0z run 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The timing on this continues to look better with most of it falling at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Look at the differences from 12z to 18z... 18z is so much more consolidated and everything is more SW in general. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 I am in Somerset. .and again marginal situation with rates so 3 inches could be half that I realize that it does not get everyone . But for those in Monmouth / Ocean , Nassau and Suffolk it would amount to a pretty good late season event . Those places will reach advisory levels and since it falls overnight with the BL below 32 , roads will become slippery there . We all hope it backs west 50 miles and that is always possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 I realize that it does not get everyone . But for those in Monmouth / Ocean , Nassau and Suffolk it would amount to a pretty good late season event . Those places will reach advisory levels and since it falls overnight with the BL below 32 , roads will become slippery there . We all hope it backs west 50 miles and that is always possible. yup. 00z models will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 I am in Somerset. .and again marginal situation with rates so 3 inches could be half that The better snow maps factor in the marginal situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The gfs is 3-4 with a 8-1 ratio for warlocks area. 6-7 if one would use 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The CCB forms right over Delaware and southern NJ and moves northeast sunday night on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The gfs is 3-4 with a 8-1 ratio for warlocks area. 6-7 if one would use 10-1 Maybe a first for that area after reaching the low 80's in March. The plants aren't going to know whats happening...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 must say, 18z gfs was really nice for LI and near the city and coastal NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 With these 850s /DP .5 to .75 you will easily send the BL below 32 and ratios will be close to 10 to 1 . And at night the snow will stick . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 must say, 18z gfs was really nice for LI and near the city and coastal NJ As Chris pointed out earlier . This is in only 12 hours . You are still 24 hours out , so 1 more move like this and you are in the game . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 GEFS mean amped up and has .75+ back to ewr and .5+ to western nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 As Chris pointed out earlier . This is in only 12 hours . You are still 24 hours out , so 1 more move like this and you are in the game . Yeah, the 12z Parallel GFS was a little further west than the OP at 12z. Would be nice to see the next few runs come in more phased and deepen the second low closer to the coast faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 pretty strong lean to the left on the clustering mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Gefs got wetter and further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 18z NOGAPS . I will AG post em . Very Nice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 This is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY. * LOCATIONS, NASSAU, WESTERN SUFFOLK, AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES, SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, 2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING, A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN CHANGES TO SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS, VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SPOTS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. * WINDS, NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. Upton is either real conservative or you guys are real weenies. Why such a disparity between most of the calls here and the NWS? I don't think Suffolk sees more than 4. Based on my understanding and map/model info there's a pretty big disparity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Yeah, the 12z Parallel GFS was a little further west than the OP at 12z. Would be nice to see the next few runs come in more phased and deepen the second low closer to the coast faster. Lots of .75 showing up now with the focus being after dark . Nice rally today . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY. * LOCATIONS, NASSAU, WESTERN SUFFOLK, AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES, SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, 2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING, A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN CHANGES TO SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS, VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SPOTS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. * WINDS, NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. Upton is either real conservative or you guys are real weenies. Why such a disparity between most of the calls here and the NWS? I don't think Suffolk sees more than 4. Based on my understanding and map/model info there's a pretty big disparity. A little bit of both man . The guidance now supports more than that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 GEFS mean amped up and has .75+ back to ewr and .5+ to western nj Oh boy that got my attention! Things are getting mighty interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Gefs got wetter and further west Map? Where do you get the GEFS so fast? NCEP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 With these 850s /DP .5 to .75 you will easily send the BL below 32 and ratios will be close to 10 to 1 . And at night the snow will stick . With temps today and the last few days, not exactly cold tomorrow, cloud cover tonight which will slow radiational cooling not all of that is going to stick and certainly not at first. And not all of it is going to fall at night. Starts earlier I think than darkness. And 10:1 is being generous I think. This is going to be wet heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Map? Where do you get the GEFS so fast? NCEP?stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Great Loop Here that mid- west energy splits in two http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/rapmeso/index.php?type=US-700mb-25 the jist of this is a slower track of our coastal low -imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 With temps today and the last few days, not exactly cold tomorrow, cloud cover tonight which will slow radiational cooling not all of that is going to stick and certainly not at first. And not all of it is going to fall at night. Starts earlier I think than darkness. And 10:1 is being generous I think. This is going to be wet heavy snow. I think it definitely starts as rain, the RGEM has rain from 21-22Z, RASN from 23-00Z then snow from 01z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 With temps today and the last few days, not exactly cold tomorrow, cloud cover tonight which will slow radiational cooling not all of that is going to stick and certainly not at first. And not all of it is going to fall at night. Starts earlier I think than darkness. And 10:1 is being generous I think. This is going to be wet heavy snow. Point 1 is Totally irrelevant . Not sure why you would ever think that would factor into what happens 24 to 36 hours later . You will wet bulb as those colder mid level get dragged to the surface quickly. That`s not light precip . The Euro is below 32 at both hour 42 and 48 when the heavier precip moves in . The BL will likely be between 30 and 31 . That is cold enough . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 happy for you folks. Take photos. Hopefully the park does decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 RGEM BL when the heavier precip moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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