Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Possible 3/20-3/21 Coastal Storm


Zelocita Weather

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I am in Somerset. .and again marginal situation with rates so 3 inches could be half that

 

I realize that it does not get everyone . But for those in Monmouth / Ocean , Nassau and Suffolk it would amount to a pretty good late season event .

 

Those places will reach advisory levels and since it falls overnight with the BL below 32  , roads will become slippery there . 

 

We all hope it backs west 50 miles and that is always possible. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I realize that it does not get everyone . But for those in Monmouth / Ocean , Nassau and Suffolk it would amount to a pretty good late season event .

Those places will reach advisory levels and since it falls overnight with the BL below 32 , roads will become slippery there .

We all hope it backs west 50 miles and that is always possible.

yup. 00z models will be fun.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

must say, 18z gfs was really nice for LI and near the city and coastal NJ

 

As Chris pointed out earlier . This is in only 12 hours . You are still 24 hours out , so 1 more move like this and you are in the game .

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_6.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_8.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As Chris pointed out earlier . This is in only 12 hours . You are still 24 hours out , so 1 more move like this and you are in the game .

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, the 12z Parallel GFS was a little further west than the OP at 12z. Would be nice to see the next few runs 

come in more phased and deepen the second low closer to the coast faster. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM

EDT MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS, NASSAU, WESTERN SUFFOLK, AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES, SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING, A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY

AFTERNOON, THEN CHANGES TO SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW

WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY

MORNING.

* IMPACTS, VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SPOTS DUE TO BLOWING

SNOW. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW.

* WINDS, NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

Upton is either real conservative or you guys are real weenies. Why such a disparity between most of the calls here and the NWS? I don't think Suffolk sees more than 4. Based on my understanding and map/model info there's a pretty big disparity.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, the 12z Parallel GFS was a little further west than the OP at 12z. Would be nice to see the next few runs 

come in more phased and deepen the second low closer to the coast faster. 

 

Lots of .75 showing up now with the focus being after dark .

Nice rally today . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM

EDT MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS, NASSAU, WESTERN SUFFOLK, AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES, SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING, A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY

AFTERNOON, THEN CHANGES TO SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW

WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY

MORNING.

* IMPACTS, VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SPOTS DUE TO BLOWING

SNOW. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW.

* WINDS, NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

Upton is either real conservative or you guys are real weenies. Why such a disparity between most of the calls here and the NWS? I don't think Suffolk sees more than 4. Based on my understanding and map/model info there's a pretty big disparity.

 

A little bit of both man . 

 

The guidance now supports more than that . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With these 850s /DP .5 to .75 you will easily send the BL below 32 and ratios will be close to 10 to 1 .

And at night the snow will stick .

gfs_T850_eus_7.png

gfs_T850_eus_8.png

gfs_Td2m_eus_7.png

gfs_Td2m_eus_8.png

With temps today and the last few days, not exactly cold tomorrow, cloud cover tonight which will slow radiational cooling not all of that is going to stick and certainly not at first. And not all of it is going to fall at night. Starts earlier I think than darkness.

And 10:1 is being generous I think. This is going to be wet heavy snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With temps today and the last few days, not exactly cold tomorrow, cloud cover tonight which will slow radiational cooling not all of that is going to stick and certainly not at first. And not all of it is going to fall at night. Starts earlier I think than darkness.

And 10:1 is being generous I think. This is going to be wet heavy snow.

I think it definitely starts as rain, the RGEM has rain from 21-22Z, RASN from 23-00Z then snow from 01z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With temps today and the last few days, not exactly cold tomorrow, cloud cover tonight which will slow radiational cooling not all of that is going to stick and certainly not at first. And not all of it is going to fall at night. Starts earlier I think than darkness.

And 10:1 is being generous I think. This is going to be wet heavy snow.

 

 

Point 1 is Totally irrelevant . Not sure why you would ever think that would factor into what happens 24 to 36 hours later . 

 

 

You will wet bulb as those colder mid level get dragged to the surface quickly. That`s not light precip .

 

The Euro is below 32 at both hour 42 and 48 when the heavier precip moves in .

 

The BL will likely be between 30 and 31 . That is cold enough . 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...