Animal Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 18 z nam hr 45. Long Island look good..anyone west..shut out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The trough is deeper and tilted more favorably...not sure what's so bad about this run. It's an improvement. Yea what's the deal with bad run? Looks good to me with improvements in the upper levels. Sometimes you have to look beyond what the surface shows. This baby continues to trend west folks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The NAM has some weird double low action going on where the eastern low robs the western one of energy, so not sure if the NAM really knows what's going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 go thru the run http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php OPC prog 48hrs 996mb just outside the BM You want SIX? .....that's why we all get testy if it ain't on paper YET!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 similar to the last run : 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 U mean east?its slightly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Nam totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 its slightly west Ur post was confusing, I thought you meant Long Island points west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 similar to the last run : 18z 12z Not so much. NAM increased much of Suffolk from 0.05 (flurries) to 0.3 - 0.4 Significant increase That being said, if i lived west of NYC i would completely give up on this one for anything more than mood flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 18 z nam hr 45. Long Island look good Broken record this winter, sharp cutoff west of Long Island. The NAM is virtually nothing for my area (Rockland County). NWS agrees, the new update is less than an inch. Long Island and eastern New England do well though. Time has run out for anyone west of New York City, the evolution today supports this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Unfortunately Nam keeps heaviest precip just south and east of LI, otherwise they would get into some really decent rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Broken record this winter, sharp cutoff west of Long Island. The NAM is virtually nothing for my area (Rockland County). NWS agrees, the new update is less than an inch. Long Island and eastern New England do well though. Time has run out for anyone west of New York City, the evolution today supports this Wonder what's up with the CA & UK model. Epic failure if we get nothing under 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 H5 continues to improve on the nam from 12z thats all we need to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 H5 continues to improve on the nam from 12z thats all we need to see.yup the trough is sharper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 11 eps members are 6+ for the area and 4 are 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 11 eps members are 6+ for the area and 4 are 10+ GFS, NAM, EURO show basically nothing west of central LI. It would take some drastic changes to get those totals from the city west. Still confused about the CA & UK models and the outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 WELL LOOKY HERE thru the Benchmark http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 you ain't lying,but positive trends are visible today.if one can't see slight differences in different conditions and forecast's then one should pick another line of hobby or employment lol..Living and dying by each run is RAMPANT here.... 80% here think that the latest run released is what's gonna happen, and so on, and so on, and so on...This has big bust potential in either direction, and if the trough continues to sharpen, the heights build higher along the coast, and this slows down a bit, allowing the trough to at least go neutral then I don't see why NYC points east get at least high end advisory/low end warning possibility (BEST case scenario) However if it's a faster system, and the trough can't orientate quick enough to at least neutral, then I don't see anyone west of central long island seeing much. The other question is western precip shield... The GGEM is NOT far from other guidance in terms a track ( yes it's slightly west) but it has a much more expansive western precip shield and a deeper system, allowing better banding, and precip expansion into the interior. This is a really tough forecast for anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 GFS, NAM, EURO show basically nothing west of central LI. It would take some drastic changes to get those totals from the city west. Still confused about the CA & UK models and the outputs. GFS and euro have snow for the entire area. We continue to see improvements at h5 with 24 hrs to go. Your analysis of the nam was god awful take a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 18z RGEM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 18z rgem would give NYC points east some really decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 18z rgem would give NYC points east some really decent snow Looks to me even west of the city get decent snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Maps of 18z RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 All I need is 1.2" to get to 40 inches should happen tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 All I need is 1.2" to get to 40 inches should happen tomorrow I need 3 to get to 30 for average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 I need 3 to get to 30 for averageYou should get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 You should get it Thanks I hope u get 3 plus too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 All I need is 1.2" to get to 40 inches should happen tomorrow I have a little over 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 I will end it as this. If you get more than an inch or two = you win. Silly to argue over a few inches of snow. Regards. He probably has a shot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 He probably has a shot . If this was football, the EPS would be overatted. It's been wrong multiple times, and less than 48 hrs ago had 2 feet plus for NW sections. Wouldn't be riding it, especially for this complex storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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