UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The weaker Euro is .5 into Monmouth county. 7 onto Long Island. Mostly night time snow . They will do a lot better than that. If the UKMET is right, they will do great. There's an inch of liquid there. PB, You think even with marginal 2mt at or slight above freezing, and 850s between 0 and -4 they will accumulate if precip isn't at least moderate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 That's quite the output from this Brams model. I'd LOVE this to come true. How often does it run?, and why do I never hear of this model? Any good? it's a new model,runs the same as the euro,navgem,cmc and ukie. i've been following it since it's debut and quite honestly impressed by it's performance this winter season.brams otherwise known as the brazilian model. brazilian regional atmospheric modeling system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 It's too late in the game. Long Island will get a few slushy inches Its not late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 PB, You think even with marginal 2mt at or slight above freezing, and 850s between 0 and -4 they will accumulate if precip isn't at least moderate? 33 and light snow at night will accumulate on grassy areas and car tops, no doubt about it. Again, 0.5 is more than pixie dust, thats legit QPF which will come down moderately at times, say Nassau east. Remember, this board is not only NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 PB, You think even with marginal 2mt at or slight above freezing, and 850s between 0 and -4 they will accumulate if precip isn't at least moderate?Profile for CLI are fine. Hour 42 850 -3 BL 32 DP 30 .4 In 6 hours Hour 48 850 -6 BL 31 DP 28 .3 in 6 hours 6 inches on grass and less on secondary roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 BxWeatherwatcher, on 19 Mar 2016 - 2:22 PM, said:it's a new model,runs the same as the euro,navgem,cmc and ukie,been following it since it's debut and quite honestly impressed by it's performance this winter season.brams otherwise known as the brazilian model. Interesting. Ok...I'll keep an eye on it. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 33 and light snow at night will accumulate on grassy areas and car tops, no doubt about it. Again, 0.5 is more than pixie dust, thats legit QPF which will come down moderately at times, say Nassau east. Remember, this board is not only NW What's that suppose to mean? LolI was asking him a legit meteorological question referring to snow growth and temperature profiles, nothing more, had nothing to do with NW or city lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Can anyone give QPF range for Central Park vs JFK vs Suffolk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 You have to start knocking on 1" per hour rates to overcome the ground and accumulate faster then it can melt. If .5 liquid falls, you'll be lucky to see 2-3 on grass.. nada on the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 You have to start knocking on 1" per hour rates to overcome the ground and accumulate faster then it can melt. If .5 liquid falls, you'll be lucky to see 2-3 on grass.. nada on the pavement. Most of this falls at night. They are below freezing during the event, where do you guys get this stuff from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Can anyone give QPF range for Central Park vs JFK vs Suffolk? What model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 You have to start knocking on 1" per hour rates to overcome the ground and accumulate faster then it can melt. If .5 liquid falls, you'll be lucky to see 2-3 on grass.. nada on the pavement. what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 I just spoke to the shaman at the local Tibetan center, he said 1-3" of snow MAYBE here on Long Island. I think at this point ill trust that more than whats going on with the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 What model EURO VS GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Most of this falls at night. They are below freezing during the event, where do you guys get this stuff from. I get it from past experience, I was basing that on most during the day? I thought it was coming in earlier and was going to be mostly during the day tomorrow into tomorrow night? If the bulk is overnight, she'll perform slightly better but its still tough. Still need a quick thump to cover the ground and then we can have liftoff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 You have to start knocking on 1" per hour rates to overcome the ground and accumulate faster then it can melt. If .5 liquid falls, you'll be lucky to see 2-3 on grass.. nada on the pavement. All models have now shifted the precipitation to the nighttime hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 12Z ggem ensembles agree with op. .75 qpf to nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Putting intensity aside, what is the duration? 12 hours? 15Hours? 18 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Also, and I believe this has been mentioned a few times on here, but isn't the Euro usually known to make smaller adjustments and not larger swings in either direction? Not sure about the new upgraded Euro but it certainly could keep trending west. It made a monster shift the other day, the old Euro definitely did that but this one following it back when it was the parallel it makes much bigger run to run shifts. Much like the old Euro I found it often to be too low on QPF inside 36-48 hours a good amount of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Any consensus on what time we'll see the first flakes fly? *If* they fly that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Srefs shifted west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Srefs shifted west againby how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Has the eps or EURO control rin cone out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Srefs probability of > 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Has the eps or EURO control rin cone out yet? About 30 min or so it should be up to Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 About 30 min or so it should be up to Sunday Thanks. For me to be sold I want to at least see it on par with the current run. Hearing GEFS a bit west if op. Gets my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Thanks. For me to be sold I want to at least see it on par with the current run. Hearing GEFS a bit west if op. Gets my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 You have to start knocking on 1" per hour rates to overcome the ground and accumulate faster then it can melt. If .5 liquid falls, you'll be lucky to see 2-3 on grass.. nada on the pavement. That's just wrong, even during midday. At midday in late March, melting rates at 33-34F would be about 3/8" per hour (and maybe 1/2" per hour on darker, paved surfaces that hold heat well), so realistically you'd need moderate snow of 1/2" per hour or more to accumulate well. But here's the part most people don't realize. If you can get really good rates for an hour or so and get a decent layer of snow to accumulate, subsequent snow is falling on accumulated snow, which is, by definition, at 32F, so the ground temperature part of the melting process no longer applies. And the indirect sunlight has far less of an effect, as the albedo of snow (reflectivity) is 80-90% vs. 10-20% for paved surfaces and 30% for grass. Of course, the air temp still has the same effect, so some of the snow falling on accumulated snow will melt but much less than melts when the ground/surfaces are bare. At night, once snow starts to accumulate, the only factor in melting is the air temps and with air temps around 32F, melting should be minimal. And if snow is falling heavily (1" per hour or so), it will have little trouble accumulating, as we've seen in many storms over the years. I should store this text somewhere, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Wsw and wwa flying in LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Eps is further west than 0z and op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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