weatherfreeeeak Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Yea. This pic is almost like porn...lol. Euro is out to hour 60...few more minshows it lookin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Tucked in Beauty!!!! 24hrs ago COMP hug your teddy!!! LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Big snowstorm on the euro. Slightly west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 weatherfreeeeak, on 17 Mar 2016 - 02:13 AM, said:hows it lookin looking awesome!! Better than the 12z Euro ( which already was looking good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 12+ on the Euro for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 969mb CRUSH JOB... for our friends up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 wxbell snowmap has 15 inches right on NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 wxbell snowmap has 15 inches right on NYC Oh man would people be in for a surprise. It's been full on spring nearly everyday this month with some rapid growth occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 230 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016 VALID 12Z SUN MAR 20 2016 - 12Z THU MAR 24 2016 ...BATTLE OF THE SEASONS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... ...OVERVIEW... WINTER IS NOT OVER. UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM A RIDGE/TROUGH ORIENTATION ALONG THE DIVIDE AND IN THE EAST, RESPECTIVELY, EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ZONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ENSEMBLES INDICATE TROUGHING OR EVEN A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE ROCKIES AND THEN CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WED-THU, WITH EXPECTED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. AT THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING BUT PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST SUN-MON AND INTO CANADA TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A PACIFIC FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WEST AND ONTO THE PLAINS WITH A SW TO NE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. ...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT... ENSEMBLES HAVE WAVERED ON THE TRACK OF THE EASTERN SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT HAVE MOSTLY SETTLED ON A COURSE FROM OFF NC/SC TO NEAR 40N/70W. THE 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OFFER A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THE QUICKER 18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN, FARTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAEFS/CANADIAN MEAN, AND SLOWER CANADIAN/UKMET. 12Z GFS/GEFS LIED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ECMWF/ECENS MEAN, AND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESES TWO CAMPS OFFERED A REASONABLE STARTING POINT. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST EAST OF MAINE PERHAPS RIGHT THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY. BACK TO THE WEST, UPPER LOW WILL SEND A SURFACE FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE WEST SUN-MON WITH TRAILING A SHORTWAVE TUE. AS HEIGHTS BUILD AGAIN IN THE EAST, POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING WILL BE FAVORED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY NEXT THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE 12Z ECMWF WAS NEARLY THE STRONGEST OF ANY ENSEMBLE MEMBER (GEFS/GEPS/EPS) TO SHOW THIS (CLOSED LOW). FAVORED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECENS MEAN WHICH WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE (LIKE THE 12Z CANADIAN). GEFS ENSEMBLES WERE QUICKER OVERALL WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE CASE BY DAY 7. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... EASTERN SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW/WIND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION UP INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE WINDING DOWN EARLY TUESDAY. DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CRITICAL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES PLAIN RAIN, SNOW BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION, AND SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A HEAVY, WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY BUT THEN REBOUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TO BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. THE WEST WILL SEE PRECIPITATION EXPAND FROM COASTAL WA/OR AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. THAT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES TUE/WED AS THE INITIAL LOW WEAKENS IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SLOWLY REBUILD THROUGH THE WEEK SO THAT BY WED INTO THU MORE PRECIP WILL FIRE SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND EVEN BACK ACROSS FLORIDA. FRACASSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=brams&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pr06&HH=102&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= brams model on board,n.y.c and l.i slam job in progress.the whole run is crazy,n.y.c all snow,eastern l.i,boston and prov snow to rain back to snow according to this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f096_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Euro ENS Sharper and West COMP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php we may jump the shark today..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Wow what a Euro run that was, the UKMET was good too but it might be a little bit too warm for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Today's 12z model runs should be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 GFS still doesn't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 So nice to have model agreement. The GFS still wants no part of the storm and the Euro is gung ho. Hopefully 12z clears this crap up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 So nice to have model agreement. The GFS still wants no part of the storm and the Euro is gung ho. Hopefully 12z clears this crap up If the NAM is not yet in range, we still have a lot of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 So nice to have model agreement. The GFS still wants no part of the storm and the Euro is gung ho. Hopefully 12z clears this crap up The GFS has a history of being very slow to catch on when it's doing what it is with this system, the piecemeal messy deal where it has trouble phasing things. I've seen it hold out until 48-54 hours a few times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 00z eps is even further NW, much tighter cluster agreement amongst ensembles on location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 00z eps is even further NW, much tighter cluster agreement amongst ensembles on location Some Meteorologist are beginning to mention signs of possible mixing at coast. Hopefully you and your crew get crushed this time around as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Some Meteorologist are beginning to mention signs of possible mixing at coast. Hopefully you and your crew get crushed this time around as well. The UKMET certainly based on track would indicate that. The UKMET would be a very difficult forecast for this area because it's track even once it passes northeast isn't exactly the best for back end snows because the flow would probably be somewhat downslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 The GFS has a history of being very slow to catch on when it's doing what it is with this system, the piecemeal messy deal where it has trouble phasing things. I've seen it hold out until 48-54 hours a few times Feb '13 is a great example. Euro was ending the world in NE; GFS never caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 00z eps is even further NW, much tighter cluster agreement amongst ensembles on location Control is also further west. Great hit NYC westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 The GFS has a history of being very slow to catch on when it's doing what it is with this system, the piecemeal messy deal where it has trouble phasing things. I've seen it hold out until 48-54 hours a few times Gefs is further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Another thing that could limit accumulations near the coast is if the surface low passes overhead. It's not out of the question that it could come ashore on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Another thing that could limit accumulations near the coast is if the surface low passes overhead. It's not out of the question that it could come ashore on Long Island. Agree. If that happens, mixing will def be an issue until the low bombs and moves away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Agree. If that happens, mixing will def be an issue until the low bombs and moves away. Not only that, but the coast would likely dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Fwiw, 9z SREF at 87 hours. Looks like the Euro or maybe even slightly west. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160317+09+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.