MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Eps and euro have 1-3 for nyc. Time to root that on. Car toppers ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The CRAS and GFS led the way with this one...unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The CRAS and GFS led the way with this one...unreal. The GFS basically spit every possible scenario out other than a hit. I think it was doing it's usual progressive deal and more or less walked into the right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The GFS basically spit every possible scenario out other than a hit. I think it was doing it's usual progressive deal and more or less walked into the right ideaCRAS only slightly wavered one run where is still had the 2 rounds of precip but extrapolated past 84hrs tried to make the Sunday night coastal low the bigger deal but then immediately backed off that idea next run and held steady with its prior solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hrsfc.gif Prog from the OPC 70 miles approx south of the benchmark 25 hard core forum members on Saturday morning.... NICE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Eps and euro have 1-3 for nyc. Time to root that on. Car toppers ftw Given the current pattern, that may the best one can hope for. A look at all of NYC's 4" or greater snowfalls that have occurred after 3/15 (1950-2015) saw 71% occur when the PNA was negative. 83% of the 6" or greater snowstorms occurred during that timeframe when the PNA was negative. If one filters for ENSO Region 3.4 (anomaly > +1°C), there is a single storm in the mix: 3/22/1998. However, this time around, the trough off the west coast and the adjacent ridge to its east are forecast to be somewhat east of where they were in 1998. The ridge off Newfoundland is forecast to be quite a big weaker than it was in 1998. So, if this holds up, a track east of the 1998 one seems more likely than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 EPS still has 2-4 for NYC but shifted east from 12z. Control has 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Given the current pattern, that may the best one can hope for. A look at all of NYC's 4" or greater snowfalls that have occurred after 3/15 (1950-2015) saw 71% occur when the PNA was negative. 83% of the 6" or greater snowstorms occurred during that timeframe when the PNA was negative. If one filters for ENSO Region 3.4 (anomaly > +1°C), there is a single storm in the mix: 3/22/1998. However, this time around, the trough off the west coast and the adjacent ridge to its east are forecast to be somewhat east of where they were in 1998. The ridge off Newfoundland is forecast to be quite a big weaker than it was in 1998. So, if this holds up, a track east of the 1998 one seems more likely than not. The PNA is the biggest problem with this. If this was positive, the storm would have most likely been closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 The best model (GEM LAM) still shows a moderate snowstorm per 6z...with snow still falling at the end of the run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 9z SREF shifted slightly west. Mean is 0.55 QPF for LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/analysis/surface/index.php?type=ne-fronts-1# this system still holds your attention ....whether you like it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Upton from this morning still has 2-3 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Woah the nam looks improved for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Woah the nam looks improved for sure Not sure where you see improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Significant jump west on the 12z nam! It just misses our area with the heavy precipitation, but certainly justifies the winter storm watch that is currently out of Taunton NWS for SE mass and the islands. The system is much slower overall and is able to merge with the northern stream energy, but just slightly too late for NYC/LI. Eastern LI may receive advisory snowfall if the exact NAM situation depicted occurred. Probably 1" or so rest of LI....but this would be overnight...mainly midnight Sunday night through 9 am Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Notable tug West on NAM....S NJ bullseye 4-7"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 4k nam knock knock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Not sure where you see improved Disaster for the interior. Bone dry. Not a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 I am going to laugh if the models pull a January blizzard and start bringing this back 24 hours prior to the start of the event. The way this winter has gone nothing would surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html not bad at all right now,suppression is actually trying to get out the way.we might have this actually come a bit west later on,nam is the first to start showing it's hand.also of note it's really slow moving too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 I am going to laugh if the models pull a January blizzard and start bringing this back 24 hours prior to the start of the event. The way this winter has gone nothing would surprise me. The only concern I have is that the para Euro which is now the actually operational Euro had a noticeable flat bias in December and January before it became operational. Couple that with the often slightly displaced UKMET having something consistently, albeit ticking east the possibility still exists for something but I would be surprised if it was anything major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Check out that RGEM..still beyond its best range but interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Check out that RGEM..still beyond its best range but interestingYeah that wasn't a bad look at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 trends my friend,trends!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Rgem has 3-5 inches for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 GFS looks like its coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 Rgem has 3-5 inches for the coast "even the losers get lucky sometimes" --T Petty-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ for good measure the sref!.plumes have been going up since last night.several clusters at 8 or more inches for parts of n.y.c,3-5 looks good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted March 19, 2016 Share Posted March 19, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ The plumes are a joke. The higher totals which you say are 8 inches have snow for tonight. That's a joke. You have to look with your eyes not your heart. for good measure the sref!.plumes have been going up since last night.several clusters at 8 or more inches for parts of n.y.c,3-5 looks good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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