ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro is .65" of precip in 9 hours and almost all of it at night. That's 3"-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Wonder if we can get some help from the WAR. A couple more bumps westbound would suit me just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro is .65" of precip in 9 hours and almost all of it at night. That's 3"-6". Ha, I guessed 0.60" and I was almost spot on. I'm not over analyzing or losing sleep over this. I don't think all of the pieces of the puzzle are placed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro is .65" of precip in 9 hours and almost all of it at night. That's 3"-6". Not all of that will accumulate. Sorry but it's less then that. Either way we need a trend for a deeper storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 You can see the subtle differences up in New England. For example, at 00z, Boston proper was right on the NW edge of the heaviest totals and now they are overhead and to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Not all of that will accumulate. Sorry but it's less then that. Either way we need a trend for a deeper storm A lot of it falls during the afternoon and evening, so the sun will be setting as the storm intensifies. It's only March 21st. Big difference between that and say April 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Not all of that will accumulate. Sorry but it's less then that. Either way we need a trend for a deeper storm IDK Tim. I see surface temps of 30-32 degrees, precip after 5pm and 850s of -4 to -5. Even at 5 to 1 ratios, .65" is 3" of snow. I agree that almost nothing will accumulate before 5-6pm. I dont think we need a deeper storm. I think we just need it to delay 3-6 more hours and then it all falls at night. Deeper storm would mean closer to the coast and we would taint. Yesterday's 12z Euro Ensembles would've resulted in a lot of rain and taint for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 IDK Tim. I see surface temps of 30-32 degrees, precip after 5pm and 850s of -4 to -5. Even at 5 to 1 ratios, ,65" is 3" of snow. I agree that almost nothing will accumulate before 5-6pm. I dont think we need a deeper storm. I think we just need it to delay 3-6 more hours and then it all falls at night. I respectfully disagree pal. But nice to read your input. I hope for better runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I don't think this is a final outcome. Still about 48 hours away. If we can get another 50-75 mile west and 3-6 millibars stronger were definitely talking warning snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I respectfully disagree pal. But nice to read your input. I hope for better runs The heart of the storm is after dusk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 So who's taking dibs on which model(s) will cave Euro/Ukie/Cmc vs. GFS. Neither side is giving up. Someone will go down in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 A lot of it falls during the afternoon and evening, so the sun will be setting as the storm intensifies. It's only March 21st. Big difference between that and say April 6th. I'm with you on the improvements at h5. Hopefully that continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 IDK Tim. I see surface temps of 30-32 degrees, precip after 5pm and 850s of -4 to -5. Even at 5 to 1 ratios, .65" is 3" of snow. I agree that almost nothing will accumulate before 5-6pm. I dont think we need a deeper storm. I think we just need it to delay 3-6 more hours and then it all falls at night. Deeper storm would mean closer to the coast and we would taint. Yesterday's 12z Euro Ensembles would've resulted in a lot of rain and taint for us. I think it's pointless to argue about the finer details 48-60 hours out. Especially when you're trying to argue 5" vs 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 .75 in 12 hours. 850s -5 BL 31. This is 6 to 8 on grassy surfaces in Monmouth Ocean Nassau Suffolk. The city and the concrete jungle will have to wait until after dark to accumulate. This is not. 25 and 33. The UKIE deepens this 1 mb an hour on its way NE. If you measure on 5th Ave in NYC it's 0 but if you live in the E burbs surrounded by grass you will do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Seems like we are in for a good time, don't care for the wind at all. I have way to many trees. Sounds like a fun little storm for all the snow freaks out there but its going to be f60's by the middle of next week. Thats all that really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 So who's taking dibs on which model(s) will cave Euro/Ukie/Cmc vs. GFS. Neither side is giving up. Someone will go down in flames.Didnt the euro technically already fold in some regards? Went from a band of 12-16" snows from just N of DCA to BOS for a few runs to a thin band of 4-7" PHL-BOS for a couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Sref now looks like the ggem ukie and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Regardless if NYC/NJ/LI sees 1-3 or 2-4 or 3-6 it's going to snow. It's going to snow after unbelievable warmth of a couple of weeks ago. It's going to snow after some TV forecasters proclaimed "no more snow" Nice to look forward to period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 What r u guys looking at? Euro drops low end warning snows from central NJ THROUGH NYC and Long Island? Am I missing something Its March 20th not January..sun angle olus the ground has warmed considerably..weaker storm lower rates cuts back on totals significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 the new c.m.c makes n.y.c,northeastern nj and westchester county verryy happy!!..the snow jackpot for this event looks like a classic I-95 SPECIAL.less east and northwest of n.y.c.a perfect setup unless your right on the coast/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 .75 in 12 hours. 850s -5 BL 31. This is 6 to 8 on grassy surfaces in Monmouth Ocean Nassau Suffolk. The city and the concrete jungle will have to wait until after dark to accumulate. This is not. 25 and 33. The UKIE deepens this 1 mb an hour on its way NE. If you measure on 5th Ave in NYC it's 0 but if you live in the E burbs surrounded by grass you will do fine. If this was at night i would agree. but a good amount falls during the day in monmouth and ocean counties thats not 6-8. 1-3 with spots of 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 New srefs are .5+ for the area but the timing is horrible early sunday morning into all day sunday. thats 1-3/2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 A lot of shifting in short term runs so perhaps there's more in store. We won't really know for sure until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 12z JMA was between .2 and .4 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 12z NAVGEM is completely OTS and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 is nobody noticing that the NAM is weak but still keeps most of the area below freezing sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Eps is coming much faster with the storm than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 12z NAVGEM is completely OTS and a miss No it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 eps snow mean 2-4 for the area less near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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