IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The media has already gone crazy with this storm. You can tell from the number of social media posts that I've seen already. It's going to be another black eye if the system completely misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The media has already gone crazy with this storm. You can tell from the number of social media posts that I've seen already. It's going to be another black eye if the system completely misses. This is what happens when you give everyone a voice. Misinformed modelologists tell ignorant people about a storm. Misinformed modelologists are wrong. Ignorant people get angry. Both modelologists and ignorant people blame the most qualified people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 well the gfs was correct for nyc in that blizzard 2015 when it predicted about a foot of snow.. and the euro kept saying 2 feet 2 feet for nyc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 This is what happens when you give everyone a voice. Misinformed modelologists tell ignorant people about a storm. Misinformed modelologists are wrong. Ignorant people get angry. Both modelologists and ignorant people blame the most qualified people. Even well known meteorologist have jumped on board. I'm surprised with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 No one is too blame. The number 1 and number 2 skill score models, the Euro and the UKMET painted a foot of snow over the area for the last 2 days. That's kind of hard to ignore or dismiss. A lot of this looks to escape east and that happens. It's no ones fault . The guidance is the best we have. I would have loved to see 12 to 18 into the areas that missed the Blizzard and the EPS had it for 2 straight days but that now looks wrong. Non of this is perfect and new data is always being ingested so this stuff changes. Let's see who can salvage what now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ggem looks good. Forget the GFS for a minute it was terrible for the blizzard in January Sent from MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ggem looks good. Forget the GFS for a minute it was terrible for the blizzard in January Sent from MAM Yesterday at this time it was targeting upstate NY. Its obvious where the trend is here. Sorry tony.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Looking like a coastal event right now but the east trend is scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 No one is too blame. The number 1 and number 2 skill score models, the Euro and the UKMET painted a foot of snow over the area for the last 2 days. That's kind of hard to ignore or dismiss. A lot of this looks to escape east and that happens. It's no ones fault . The guidance is the best we have. I would have loved to see 12 to 18 into the areas that missed the Blizzard and the EPS had it for 2 straight days but that now looks wrong. Non of this is perfect and new data is always being ingested so this stuff changes. Let's see who can salvage what now. It's hard to believe the Euro has been the #1 score model this winter. It was very late to pick up on the blizzard and the UKMET storm and it has raised a big false alarm with a couple other storms including this one. It has not been good at all with storm threats this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Looking like a coastal event right now but the east trend is scary. And to think, 12 hours ago folks were worried about the west trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 And to think, 12 hours ago folks were worried about the west trend.I was being serious that the block and 50/50 did not support a west track and that OTS was possible or a coastal location jackpot.The inland posters thought I was trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The best part is that the coastal part isn't until Sunday evening and night so we don't have to worry about the late March sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 This has been the trend all winter... 12z ( 3/17 ) , 0z ( 3/18 ) , 12z ( 3/18 ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Hear ukie looks ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The Ukie has about the same track as it did but it's leas intense than 24 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Hear ukie looks ok?Much weaker. The upper level trend here is obvious, positively tilted trough goes neutral then negative way too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 .that doesn't look all that bad...how is h5 any good changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2016 Author Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ukie looks real nice, I think consensus is growing for a moderate/signficant snowstorm for the coast and I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Zoomed in UKMET, it's about the best out of everything I've seen since the 12z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 that doesn't look all that bad...how is h5 It's not out yet on that site but the storm gets going too late. Probably similar issues that the other models show. It's still much better than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Well the Euro will be telling in about an hour. If it shows more signs of trending towards the GFS then I think we know where this is going to end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 When all else fails we have the rpm lolrpm nailed the blizzard on January and the blizzard of 2015Edit MAM 12z showed a blizzard for NYC late developer Sunday night 11 inches for Central Park. Benchmark track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 About 16 mm of precip on the Ukie for KNYC Quebec view not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just to set expectations about how rare this would be... There have been a total of fourteen 6"+ snowstorms after March 15 at KNYC since records began in 1869. The last one was 24 years ago. There has never been a foot+ and only four have been over 10". We should be thrilled if we get 2-3". 1875-04-12 - 10.0" 1890-03-19 - 6.0" 1892-03-17 - 8.0" 1915-04-03 - 10.2" 1917-04-08 - 6.5" 1924-04-01 - 8.5" 1938-04-06 - 6.4" 1944-04-05 - 6.5" 1956-03-16 - 6.7" 1956-03-18 - 11.6" 1958-03-20 - 11.8" 1967-03-22 - 9.0" 1982-04-06 - 9.6" 1992-03-19 - 6.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Us models vs foreign models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 12z GEFS mean is drier than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Geps east but good for coastal areas. Need west trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just to set expectations about how rare this would be... There have been a total of fourteen 6"+ snowstorms after March 15 at KNYC since records began in 1869. The last one was 24 years ago. There has never been a foot+ and only four have been over 10". We should be thrilled if we get 2-3". 1875-04-12 - 10.0" 1890-03-19 - 6.0" 1892-03-17 - 8.0" 1915-04-03 - 10.2" 1917-04-08 - 6.5" 1924-04-01 - 8.5" 1938-04-06 - 6.4" 1944-04-05 - 6.5" 1956-03-16 - 6.7" 1956-03-18 - 11.6" 1958-03-20 - 11.8" 1967-03-22 - 9.0" 1982-04-06 - 9.6" 1992-03-19 - 6.2" It should also be noted that just 2 of those 14 storms (14%) occurred when El Niño conditions were still present (Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.50°C or higher): April 1915 and March 1992. The March 1958 storm occurred when the El Niño had given way to neutral ENSO conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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