UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The low is almost 200 miles west at 18z Sunday compared to 06 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 999mb about 100 miles SE of Ocean City, MD. Throwing some decent light to moderate snows about 75 miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 999mb about 100 miles SE of Ocean City, MD. Throwing some decent light to moderate snows about 75 miles inland. Showing the double barrel look if I'm not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The low is almost 200 miles west at 18z Sunday compared to 06 lol This is still the NAM beyond 36hrs and should be taken with a grain of salt for the reasons you just stated above. It's mind boggling that some have been analyzing it since Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Showing the double barrel look if I'm not mistaken The initial crap was much weaker this run and that Eastern convection heads well OTS while the main SLP attempts to develop near the coast. I think the models are still struggling with giving that Eastern convection too much weight early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 This is a huge improvement for the coast, compared to the 6z run. Coastal is closer and falls at night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The NAM looks nothing like the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 But still no real accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 But still no real accumulation. It's an improvement and snow maps do have 1"-3" from the coastal part of it from 5pm Sunday to 2am Monday.The over-running stuff is garbage white rain and falls in the middle of the day for those that get into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 But still no real accumulation. Still west which is a plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 This is a huge improvement for the coast, compared to the 6z run. Coastal is closer and falls at night: Except for that giant blob of convection near 65W which the models are painting as the main SLP. The NAM verbatim is an inch or two of slop for anyone within 75 miles of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Meh .10+ of white rain on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Un-impressive for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The ULL energy coming down from the Lakes on the NAM acts like a cold front, which punts everything offshore. You have no phase. The storm comes from a shortwave rounding the base of the trough. At least the trough dug further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 4k Nam has a better look, seems to want to keep the low consolidated instead of the double barrel look seen on the 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 4K would be warning level snows for coast and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 4k Nam has a better look, seems to want to keep the low consolidated instead of the double barrel look seen on the 12k. It's still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Oddly enough the non-trustworthy serfs continue to keep the probability of > snowfall % confined to well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Oddly enough the non-trustworthy serfs continue to keep the probability of > snowfall % confined to well inland The individuals show a bunch of inland and very warm solutions. They are skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 When all else fails we have the rpm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The individuals show a bunch of inland and very warm solutions. They are skewing the mean. Thermal profiles on the SREF are worthless, but it's nice to some members still printing out heavier QPF inland. If you don't get at least half inch per hour rates, it's going to be white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Now watch, when all hope is nearly gone, the GFS adjust and pop us with a 987 inside the bench mark and 12 inches of wind whipped snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The 4k NAM is very strong with the overrunning Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 GFS is West but not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The trough doesn't go negative tilt until Monday morning. At that point, it's way too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 From about Smithtown East is 0.25"+ NYC is right around 0.10" NW of NYC is < 0.10". So in other words, NADA. Accumulations verbatim from near Riverhead and points East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Oh well, the GFS is just horrible, I don't think Northern NJ sees a thing on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 If someone was wondering the 06z PARA GFS is bone dry for everyone, including 90% of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 From about Smithtown East is 0.25"+ NYC is right around 0.10" NW of NYC is < 0.10". So in other words, NADA. Accumulations verbatim from near Riverhead and points East. GFS refuses to budge that this is basically a non event run after run. Sorry I fell for the Euro yesterday. Based on today's trends, maybe the GFS isn't so crazy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Gotta say, the GFS has been consistent. Tough to swallow but many of us, including myself, may very well wind up strong critique of Goofus. If we get nada, Goofus led the way and all models caved to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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