snywx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 GGEM is a big hit 10pm Sunday Night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Ukie is similar to the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The GFS is like 200 miles faster than the UKMET at hour 72, that's just a ridiculous error this close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 0z GEPS is west of the op run and similiar to 12z. Low goes west of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro went east. Our NW guys will def not like this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The 00z Euro is a total disaster. Went from 12+ to now 2-3 inches. It's looking like the GFS now. ( actually worse). Im completely disgusted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The Euro brings warning level snows to parts of NYC, all of LI and Monmouth CO. Advisory snows to NE NJ, KNYC and down by Philly. And then 1-2 NW of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Rjay, on 18 Mar 2016 - 02:14 AM, said:The Euro brings warning level snows to NYC and including Monmouth CO. Advisory snows to NE NJ and down by Philly. And then 1-2 NW of there. This scenario is not acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 This storm hugs the cost; bank on it. Climatology and the pattern supports this. Trends are just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 5-6 inches for NYC on the Euro with more towards LI and way more eastern coastal sne when the low gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I will laugh my a$$ off if the operational GFS scores a coupe. Wait for the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Okay. Lets see what tomorrows 12z models say. That said...and I want to state for the record...I do not like where I think this is going. Gnite all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Still time for a west trend. Nam, GFS and Euro focuses on coastals areas, especially in SNE. I would be happy with a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Okay. Lets see what tomorrows 12z models say. That said...and I want to state for the record...I do not like where I think this is going. Gnite all You can't assume it's going anywhere after only one bad run of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Oy vey. Nuff said. SXSW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 NWS in NYC put it kindly, noting they have a low confidence forecast, given model variability from run to run within a model and across models. First snowfall map is up, showing a general 3-6" snowfall, wth highest amounts in CT/LI - not enough confidence yet in issuing watches. They also noted that intensity will be light during most of the daylight hours, with little accumulation, due to indirect sunlight, which is more intense in late March, combined with borderline surface temps in the 33-35F range. Anyone who wants accumulations wants this storm to slow down a little so most of the snow falls after sunset, when accumulations will be much easier. NWS in Philly talking about similar amounts, but their map only goes through 9 pm Sunday, so I didn't bother posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 So NAM suddenly shows nothing after the Euro went east. I hope this isn't going to completely fall apart after how promising it looked. It will be something else if GFS was right after most people talked about how lost it looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Still time for a west trend. Nam, GFS and Euro focuses on coastals areas, especially in SNE. I would be happy with a few inches. Still time for a west trend. Nam, GFS and Euro focuses on coastals areas, especially in SNE. I would be happy with a few inches. You will not get a few inches around NYC Anth if a lot of that . 4 on the Euro falls over 18 hours with the BL at 33/34 during the daytime in late March. Don't look at the snow maps . You need the heavier rates to cool that BL and .1 and .2 over 6 hours during the day will not add up to 3 in the city bud. The GGEM and UKIE are all I have left for my idea for the bigger totals N and W . The EPS went east . Never a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Toaster bath watch? I would wait until 0z tonight before declaring it dead. Sure is quiet in here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Terrible trends overnight. GFS is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Looks like a no go. 06z Nam has nothing for us. Oh well.EPS went way east too like the op. Just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 ...And the GFS went east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 This was looking so good last night. The 0z NAM looked much better and was a step towards the Euro's big solutions. GGEM shifted to show a huge snowstorm. It's amazing how quickly this fell apart! Looks like the Euro gave us false hope with all those big runs. It seems like the Euro has been terrible with storm threats this winter. Does it tend to struggle during El Nino years? I can't believe how bad it has been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Its amazing how much the attitude changed in just 12 hours. Maybe it comes back for us or maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just filling them in. SREFs also went east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Well, the GFS can still end up being right. NAM was unimpressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Every model jogged east. I shouldnt be shocked but I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It's not that it went east, it's that the storms energy fell apart because the trough doesn't go negative. Look how much weaker it has gotten on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It's not that it went east, it's that the storms energy fell apart because the trough doesn't go negative. Look how much weaker it has gotten on the models. Isnt this kind of like Juno where the EURO strengthened the storm earlier while the GFS was consistent in strengthening it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Was trying to tell Iso that the pattern does not support an inland solution and that OTS was still the worry. Looks like that occurred on the 0z and 6z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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