UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 This isn't the final outcome. Compared to its previous runs, it's making that slow creep towards the euro and other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Almost nam'd Sent from MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 18z 00z Another adjustment like this and you can put the GFS in your rear view mirror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The NAM is far from a bad run, however, I am worried about this coming together too late for most of us SW of CT. All we can do is go all in at this point, anyway:) still a good chance of at least a few inches or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Weenie maps 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Valid up to 6z Monday 3-21-16...nam: Same time frame obviously there's still another 6 hours of snow to fall after this 0z run 18z run Caving to the euro. I think we'll get nam'd tomorrow night Sent from MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It's amazing how we sway with each model run. After the eps we where concerned about it hugging the coast...after the GFS we where concerned about it kissing east...now after the nam we are concerned of it developing to late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 18z image.png 00z image.png Another adjustment like this and you can put the GFS in your rear view mirror Here's the GFS same time frame... Not even close to other guidance at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It's amazing how we sway with each model run. After the eps we where concerned about it hugging the coast...after the GFS we where concerned about it kissing east...now after the nam we are concerned of it developing to late In all honesty, I'm more worried about dry slotting and having this come too far west, as everyone has reminded us all winter the western trend within 72hrs is real this year, I'm more worried of a GGEM type solution where far interior crushes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Allsnow, on 17 Mar 2016 - 10:57 PM, said:It's amazing how we sway with each model run. After the eps we where concerned about it hugging the coast...after the GFS we where concerned about it kissing east...now after the nam we are concerned of it developing to late We wear our hearts on our sleeves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Port Jeff max looks good on the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It's amazing how we sway with each model run. After the eps we where concerned about it hugging the coast...after the GFS we where concerned about it kissing east...now after the nam we are concerned of it developing to late Some of us are just happy to see a potential snowstorm on the first day of spring, realizing how rare a modest to major snowstorm is, around here, this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Some of us are just happy to see a potential snowstorm on the first day of spring, realizing how rare a modest to major snowstorm is, around here, this late in the season. We did well on the same day last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Port Jeff max looks good on the NAM... None of this from you lady. You've had your share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Lock that NAM run in for CT thats for sure. It's just good to see in lean toward the Euro solution and tucked in closer to the coast rather than weaker/OTS thats pretty much the only thing to take from one run of the 00Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Looks like gfs doesnt want to budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Looks like gfs doesnt want to budge Who cares about goofus,it ha been horrible all winter. As long as the other guidance is there with even the nam moving towards the euro.ukie solution I would not worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Some of us are just happy to see a potential snowstorm on the first day of spring, realizing how rare a modest to major snowstorm is, around here, this late in the season. I'm curious what your definition of rare is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Looks like gfs doesnt want to budgeHonestly it's embarrassing that this is our lead American model. A camp at NWS needs to ask for funding to get an upgrade to get it up to near if not above EURO level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Honestly it's embarrassing that this is our lead American model. A camp at NWS needs to ask for funding to get an upgrade to get it up to near if not above EURO levelWhat happens if it's right.All this talk of how bad the model has been is false. It was just upgraded. Storms may be another near miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Honestly it's embarrassing that this is our lead American model. A camp at NWS needs to ask for funding to get an upgrade to get it up to near if not above EURO level How do you know it's wrong ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 How do you know it's wrong ?It has almost zero support. Even the NAM has moved away from a GFS-like solution. Also, the trio of the ECMWF, ECM ensembles, and the UKIE is hard to beat at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 It did expand the precip a bit northwest, and maybe the low did move a bit north. Same time frame from the GFS for 18z Sunday 3-20-16 0z run 18z run Sent from MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Tonight's WPC Day 3 update Nice track....Not as strong a prog- ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 I'm curious what your definition of rare is? 7 storms out of 188 delivered >6" after 3/20 in NYC and only 2 in the last 50 years. Seems kind of rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 GGEM is a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 GGEM is a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 13 inches in the city, 17 inches west. Sharp cutoff east of the city. Didn't check. Probably mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Wow cmc Way too close for comfort. We don't want to be the Richmond of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Way too close for comfort. We don't want to be the Richmond of January. It moved east from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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