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Possible 3/20-3/21 Coastal Storm


Zelocita Weather

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People need to stop getting carried away. 3 days gives a lot of time for changes. The smart thing for any forecaster to do right now would be to say a few inches is likely with the possibility for more if models like the Euro are right. If it really does end up like the GFS or NAM, not many would see much accumulation anyway, due to marginal temps and the warm ground. And in late March, the sun angle does make a difference when the snow is light. 

 

Agree with all of this, with one minor comment: much of the heaviest precip is predicted to fall after 5-6 pm on Sunday, when the sun is low in the sky and then after sunset.  Snow will be much more likely to accumulate without the influence of the indirect sunlight and with temps likely dropping a bit more.  Also, as we discuss every winter, even at midday, snow will accumulate in late March, as long as it falls heavily enough (more than 1/4-3/8" per hour - less than that will largely melt, as you said) - and then, once there is a layer of snow on the ground, subsequent snow will accumulate much more easily, as it will be falling on 32F snow, not 33-34F ground.  

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Agree with all of this, with one minor comment: much of the heaviest precip is predicted to fall after 5-6 pm on Sunday, when the sun is low in the sky and then after sunset.  Snow will be much more likely to accumulate without the influence of the indirect sunlight and with temps likely dropping a bit more.  Also, as we discuss every winter, even at midday, snow will accumulate in late March, as long as it falls heavily enough (more than 1/4-3/8" per hour - less than that will largely melt, as you said) - and then, once there is a layer of snow on the ground, subsequent snow will accumulate much more easily, as it will be falling on 32F snow, not 33-34F ground.  

Doublecheck, numbers. 12z CMC and GFS, 18z NAM, NAVGEM, GFS all have the bulk of precip daytime Sunday. Plenty of guidance showing this as a daytime event.

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Doublecheck, numbers. 12z CMC and GFS, 18z NAM, NAVGEM, GFS all have the bulk of precip daytime Sunday. Plenty of guidance showing this as a daytime event.

I'll take the NWS guidance...

 

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF AT

LEAST 6 INCHES...MOST OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE

MAX POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM IS AROUND 12 INCHES CLOSE TO WHICH

THE ECMWF CONVEYS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS IS LOW AT THIS

TIME DUE TO MODEL VARIANCES WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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The trough looked like it was prime to go negative way quicker than it did, just took forever

Prespective: where was it 12 hours ago? In a far worse place. This is most certainly a step in the right direction. Goes negative tilt 6 hours earlier then you're looking at Euro solution
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