JerseyWx Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Can't wait until the HRRR is in range. It hit the blizzard perfectly here, and not to mention some of the other smaller events we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/21/sref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif Not that impressive. 0.5" LE for the entire area on the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/21/sref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif Not that impressive. 0.5" LE for the entire area on the SREFs. .75"-1"for the NYC metro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/21/sref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif Not that impressive. 0.5" LE for the entire area on the SREFs. Which is exactly why they shouldn't even be concidered this far out, a general swath of .50 from central PA to Maine, and Canada to philly? lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 People need to stop getting carried away. 3 days gives a lot of time for changes. The smart thing for any forecaster to do right now would be to say a few inches is likely with the possibility for more if models like the Euro are right. If it really does end up like the GFS or NAM, not many would see much accumulation anyway, due to marginal temps and the warm ground. And in late March, the sun angle does make a difference when the snow is light. Agree with all of this, with one minor comment: much of the heaviest precip is predicted to fall after 5-6 pm on Sunday, when the sun is low in the sky and then after sunset. Snow will be much more likely to accumulate without the influence of the indirect sunlight and with temps likely dropping a bit more. Also, as we discuss every winter, even at midday, snow will accumulate in late March, as long as it falls heavily enough (more than 1/4-3/8" per hour - less than that will largely melt, as you said) - and then, once there is a layer of snow on the ground, subsequent snow will accumulate much more easily, as it will be falling on 32F snow, not 33-34F ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 .75"-1"for the NYC metro: Thanks. Those maps are really low quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Agree with all of this, with one minor comment: much of the heaviest precip is predicted to fall after 5-6 pm on Sunday, when the sun is low in the sky and then after sunset. Snow will be much more likely to accumulate without the influence of the indirect sunlight and with temps likely dropping a bit more. Also, as we discuss every winter, even at midday, snow will accumulate in late March, as long as it falls heavily enough (more than 1/4-3/8" per hour - less than that will largely melt, as you said) - and then, once there is a layer of snow on the ground, subsequent snow will accumulate much more easily, as it will be falling on 32F snow, not 33-34F ground. Doublecheck, numbers. 12z CMC and GFS, 18z NAM, NAVGEM, GFS all have the bulk of precip daytime Sunday. Plenty of guidance showing this as a daytime event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Doublecheck, numbers. 12z CMC and GFS, 18z NAM, NAVGEM, GFS all have the bulk of precip daytime Sunday. Plenty of guidance showing this as a daytime event. I'll take the NWS guidance... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES...MOST OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAX POTENTIAL FOR THE STORM IS AROUND 12 INCHES CLOSE TO WHICH THE ECMWF CONVEYS. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL VARIANCES WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Low pressure tracks for the 12Z suite and 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Am I missing something or was there a post about the nam that was deleted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Am I missing something or was there a post about the nam that was deleted? I tried to edit it but accidentally hit delete and didn't feel like re-typing, lol... Heights are higher along coast and storms more amped through 36hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 No major changes through 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 No major changes through 42Obviously it would be nice if we see two feet on this run but whether is 2 inches or 2 feet the model is out of its sweet spot. 24 more hours and then you can talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam Also continues to be much faster with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam has light snow into the area early Sunday morning.... Most of which is probably virga, significantly faster than other guidance but in line with GFS.. This is why other guidance have major storm, and nam/GFS do not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 1003 low that basically sits stationary for several hours, light/mod snows continue through day Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Not being NAM'd on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Wouldn't take much stock in it even if it showed a big hit, interesting how fast nam and GFS are though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The NAM was close to a total cave to the Euro. Just some initial convective feedback problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam has two lowsor a dual low that second one takes over Sunday evening. Mod snow for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The NAM was close to a total cave to the Euro. Just some initial convective feedback problems. Just develops a little to late. 3-6/4-8 along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 988 inside the bm crushes western sne and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Nam looks pretty darn good Sent from MAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The NAM was close to a total cave to the Euro. Just some initial convective feedback problems. The trough looked like it was prime to go negative way quicker than it did, just took forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just develops a little to late. Yup. Was about to post the same thing. Can't believe Im making a NAM post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 At least this NAM run is better than the previous. Onto the GFS in an hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Not a terrible run overall. 4-6 in my area Cigars for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Just develops a little to late. 3-6/4-8 along the coastYeah, I think by 12z it shows a Euro type solution, assuming the Euro holds serve tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Not a terrible run overall. 4-6 in my area Cigars for New England. This isn't the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 The trough looked like it was prime to go negative way quicker than it did, just took foreverPrespective: where was it 12 hours ago? In a far worse place. This is most certainly a step in the right direction. Goes negative tilt 6 hours earlier then you're looking at Euro solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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