Possible 3/20-3/21 Coastal Storm

[JerseyWx]

He did a probability chart.

3"-6" was the highest chance with 45%.

 

Yeah, I saw that. Probably a smart thing for right now.

 

Any talk about loonie Quinn should be confined to vendor or banter threads

I figured he wouldn't see it if I responded in there. Lonnie did go conservative with the blizzard until the end but I still think he's pretty good.

[Guest Pamela]

People need to stop getting carried away. 3 days gives a lot of time for changes. The smart thing for any forecaster to do right now would be to say a few inches is likely with the possibility for more if models like the Euro are right. If it really does end up like the GFS or NAM, not many would see much accumulation anyway, due to marginal temps and the warm ground. And in late March, the sun angle does make a difference when the snow is light. 

 

Have to agree with you JM....major snow events in the City proper from 20 March forward are like a 1 in 50 year event since LBJ.  

 

There were a couple Big Ones in the late 1950's...but not much since 4/6/1982.  The outlying areas (especially elevated {500 feet a.s.l. and up}) stand a much better chance.  For the 5 boroughs; they might pull it off (6 inches +)....but there are many factors working against them...as you lucidly cite.

[SnowGoose69]

Have to agree with you JM....major snow events in the City proper from 20 March forward are like a 1 in 50 year event since LBJ.

There were a couple Big Ones in the late 1950's...but not much since 4/6/1982. The outlying areas (especially elevated {500 feet a.s.l. and up}) stand a much better chance. For the 5 boroughs; they might pull it off (6 inches +)....but there are many factors working against them...as you lucidly cite.

The daily records after 3/23 at NYC just plummet with the exception of a few big ones here or there

[Guest Pamela]

The daily records after 3/23 at NYC just plummet with the exception of a few big ones here or there

 

Two periods in the December through March period that are consistently devoid of major snow at KNYC....January 1 through January 6 and March 22 - March 31.  I think they even do better the first 10 days of April than they do the last week of March. 

[KeithB]

Have to agree with you JM....major snow events in the City proper from 20 March forward are like a 1 in 50 year event since LBJ.  

 

There were a couple Big Ones in the late 1950's...but not much since 4/6/1982.  The outlying areas (especially elevated {500 feet a.s.l. and up}) stand a much better chance.  For the 5 boroughs; they might pull it off (6 inches +)....but there are many factors working against them...as you lucidly cite.

The thing is...from a mathematical perspective, is that sure, from March 20th onward ( which basically encompasses March 20-April 10 as it's not snowing anything substantial after that) we will have VERY few big snow events. The degree of rarity is flawed though as it encompasses a 3 week period that are vastly different. March 20th can get a very big storm, and the only reason why it's so " rare" is that the period of lets say march 17-march 23 ( basically the same climatology within a week) is just a 7 day period once a year.  So..over a decade period we are talking only 70 days of chances for a significant storm here. It's just not a lot of days. March 20th is really not that late in the season, and this period of march 17-march 23 really isn't as worse as it seems as people like to clump March 20th and onward into the same sample.    

[Guest Pamela]

The thing is...from a mathematical perspective, is that sure, from March 20th onward ( which basically encompasses March 20-April 10 as it's not snowing anything substantial after that) we will have VERY few big snow events. The degree of rarity is flawed though as it encompasses a 3 week period that are vastly different. March 20th can get a very big storm, and the only reason why it's so " rare" is that the period of lets say march 17-march 23 ( basically the same climatology within a week) is just a 7 day period once a year.  So..over a decade period we are talking only 70 days of chances for a significant storm here. It's just not a lot of days. March 20th is really not that late in the season, and this period of march 17-march 23 really isn't as worse as it seems as people like to clump March 20th and onward into the same sample.    

 

Yeah...but you likely have had 50 times as many big snow events the first 10 days of February as you have had the last 10 days of March...

[Guest Pamela]

The degree of rarity is flawed though as it encompasses a 3 week period that are vastly different.

 

Different from what?

[KeithB]

Pamela, on 17 Mar 2016 - 8:20 PM, said:

Yeah...but you likely have had 50 times as many big snow events the first 10 days of February as you have the last 10 days of March...

id guess its much less of a difference then that, ESPECIALLY if you compare the first week of February vs the March 17-24 period.

[swamplover56]

The thing is...from a mathematical perspective, is that sure, from March 20th onward ( which basically encompasses March 20-April 10 as it's not snowing anything substantial after that) we will have VERY few big snow events. The degree of rarity is flawed though as it encompasses a 3 week period that are vastly different. March 20th can get a very big storm, and the only reason why it's so " rare" is that the period of lets say march 17-march 23 ( basically the same climatology within a week) is just a 7 day period once a year. So..over a decade period we are talking only 70 days of chances for a significant storm here. It's just not a lot of days. March 20th is really not that late in the season, and this period of march 17-march 23 really isn't as worse as it seems as people like to clump March 20th and onward into the same sample.

This is a great post

[KeithB]

Different from what?

March 20-27 is vastly vastly different climatologically for a snowstorm than april 3rd -10th ( even though they are pretty close to each other in dates)

[Guest Pamela]

id guess its much less of a difference then that, ESPECIALLY if you compare the first week of February vs the March 17-24 period.

 

Yes, but we are not comparing that.  One cannot shift the goalposts because they do not fit ones narrative.  The period in question concerns the last 10 days of March.

[KeithB]

Pamela, on 17 Mar 2016 - 8:25 PM, said:

Yes, but we are not comparing that.  One cannot shift the goalposts because they do not fit ones narrative.  The period in question concerns the last 10 days of March.

No. A much fairer comparison is march 15th-25th than March 20th-30th.   

[Guest Pamela]

March 20-27 is vastly vastly different climatologically for a snowstorm than april 3rd -10th ( even though they are pretty close to each other in dates)

 

The mean termperature has gone up across N. America and principle storm track has edged northbound.  How does this advance your argument and invalidate my original contention?

[KeithB]

Pamela, on 17 Mar 2016 - 8:28 PM, said:

The mean termperature has gone up across N. America and principle storm track has edged northbound.  How does this advance your argument and invalidate my original contention?

No worries. It's not that important

[Guest Pamela]

No. A much fairer comparison is march 15th-25th than March 20th-30th.   

 

Now I see what you are saying.  Fair enough.  The 3/15 - 3/25 period should serve as the measuring rod of probability as those dates encompass on both sides (plus or minus 5 days) the pending event.  OK.  What you were inferring seemed ambiguous (to me)  at first. 

[KeithB]

Pamela, on 17 Mar 2016 - 8:31 PM, said:

Now I see what you are saying.  Fair enough.  The 3/15 - 3/25 period should serve as the measuring rod of probability as those dates encompass on both sides (plus or minus 5 days) the pending event.  OK.

Yea. Sorry if im nitpicking....it's just that each day matters a lot this time of year   Anyway...lets go snowstorm!!

[Guest Pamela]

The only thing is, the 15 March to 25 March timeframe has been pretty snowless as well post Eisenhower.

[Guest Pamela]

Yea. Sorry if im nitpicking....it's just that each day matters a lot this time of year   Anyway...lets go snowstorm!!

 

I hope it does come to pass.  Out in the suburban (especially elevated) areas...you have a great chance, I think...my goodness, Norfolk CT in Litchfield County had a mean April snowfall of 10 inches until recent times...and close to 25 inches in March...and most high spots in N. Jersey have a mean March snow figure in the double digits (at least a little over 10 inches). 

[KeithB]

Pamela, on 17 Mar 2016 - 8:38 PM, said:

I hope it does come to pass.  Out in the suburban (especially elevated) areas...you have a great chance, I think...my goodness, Norfolk CT in Litchfield County had a mean April snowfall of 10 inches until recent times...and close to 25 inches in March...and most high spots in N. Jersey have a mean March snow figure in the double digits (at least a little over 10 inches). 

Yea..I hear ya. It's been a rough couple decades recently in the late winter season.We are all in an unknown spot of trying to determine whether the lack of late march snow is due to short sample variance or is it climate changes. I think it's fair to say that it's probably a combination of both. However...is the split 50/50 down the middle or is it 90/10 one way, etc. We just don't know 

[KeithB]

Franklin0529, on 17 Mar 2016 - 8:46 PM, said:

Isn't this a storm thread smh

Sorry...we got on a tangent inbetween model runs. I think the discussion is relative to the situation however. Back to waiting for the new model runs. Nam comes soon...

[Guest Pamela]

Yea..I hear ya. It's been a rough couple decades recently in the late winter season.We are all in an unknown spot of trying to determine whether the lack of late march snow is due to short sample variance or is it climate changes. I think it's fair to say that it's probably a combination of both. However...is the split 50/50 down the middle or is it 90/10 one way, etc. We just don't know 

 

Ok...I made a post wondering if you were near ACY...then noticed the "NY"...and quickly deleted it....seeing you are in Rockland County.  That County has some weird low totals the last 20 years relative to everyone else...not sure why...my first guess is that every northerly wind direction (the primary snow one) is downslope there...but not sure if that carries the argument...

[Rjay]

Sorry...we got on a tangent inbetween model runs. I think the discussion is relative to the situation however. Back to waiting for the new model runs. Nam comes soon...

The discussion was fine. This is a wx board and it was in between model suites.

[KeithB]

Rjay, on 17 Mar 2016 - 8:53 PM, said:

The discussion was fine. This is a wx board and it was in between model suites.

Thanks Rjay!

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Anyone have time to take a look at 850 temps and 2mt per the euro during the hight of storm... I'm at work and can't right now, and I'm curious what ratios would be if this comes afternoon/evening Sunday

[snow1]

Srefs?

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Srefs?

About as useless as the 84nam this far out honestly

[Guest Pamela]

Srefs?

 

New ones run at 21z (5 PM ET)...so now just 4 hour differential between NYC & Greenwich.

 

They will probably post at about 9:25 PM ET.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

[ag3]

Sref mean is improved. Heaviest precip is in the NYC metro with .75"-1".

Everyone else is a solid .5"-.75".

[Guest Pamela]

About as useless as the 84nam this far out honestly

 

I agree...its the one short range  / short mid range model I entirely ignore. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I agree...its the one short range / short mid range model I entirely ignore.

If srefs were accurate in ANY way I'd have about 80" of snow, not 8" lol